About

Proving your team got robbed, with data.

What is CURSD?

CURSD is the definitive source for measuring luck in sports. We rank every team across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, MLS, NHL, NBA, and MLB by how much fortune - good or bad - has influenced their season.

The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) combines expected goals (xG), Pythagorean expectation, and real match signals into a single score from -100 to +100. Negative means unlucky. Positive means lucky. It's that simple.

Who built this?

CURSD was created by Alexandre Corbasson, a Montreal-based tech entrepreneur and sports analytics enthusiast. Alexandre is the co-founder and CEO of Intégral, a collective of digital agencies with 80+ employees across Montreal and Paris, and a guest lecturer at McGill University.

The idea came from a simple frustration: watching teams get robbed night after night with no way to quantify it. Expected goals models and Pythagorean expectation have been validated by decades of academic research, but nobody was combining them into a single cross-sport luck metric. CURSD fills that gap.

Who is this for?

  • Fans who know their team is better than the standings suggest (and want the data to prove it).
  • Fantasy players looking for regression candidates - teams due for a bounce-back or a fall.
  • Bettors who want to identify mispriced teams based on underlying performance vs results.
  • Journalists and analysts looking for data-backed narratives and fresh angles on the season.
  • Anyone who enjoys sports analytics and wants a fresh lens on the season.

How it works

Every sport has a way to measure what should have happened vs what actually happened. We use established models - xG for soccer, Pythagorean expectation for hockey and basketball, Statcast xwOBA and xERA for baseball - and layer in match-level signals to build a composite luck score.

All signals are z-scored independently within each league, weighted by sport-specific importance, then combined and scaled to a -100/+100 range. The methodology draws on the work of Bill James (Pythagorean expectation), StatsBomb's xG models, and Michael Mauboussin's skill-luck decomposition framework.

Data is updated daily from publicly available sources. For the full technical breakdown, check the Methodology page.

Editorial standards

CURSD is fully automated and transparent. Every score can be traced back to its underlying data. We use probability language ("expected to," "probable") rather than certainty. We don't cherry-pick results, and we show every team in every league, not just the extremes.

The CLS has near-zero year-over-year autocorrelation (r < 0.15), which validates that it measures luck rather than skill. If a team is consistently "unlucky," the metric would be broken. It isn't.

Leagues covered

⚽Premier League⚽La Liga⚽Serie A⚽Bundesliga⚽Ligue 1🏒NHL🏀NBA⚾MLB

NFL coming soon.

Data sources

Contact

Have feedback, a bug report, or a league request? Email alex@cursd.com or connect on LinkedIn.