The MLB CLS uses the Pythagorean expectation formula (runs scored and allowed) to determine which baseball teams are winning more or fewer games than their run differential predicts.

What is Pythagorean expectation in baseball?

Invented by Bill James, it estimates expected wins from runs scored and allowed: Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Deviation from this = luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Tigers MLB · 61 pts	23	5▲18	61-68	-64	☠ Cursed 61-68 despite outscoring opponents by +77 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
2	Giants MLB · 52 pts	28	24▲4	52-77	-51	☠ Cursed 52-77 with a -79 run differential. Getting robbed by the sequencing gods. The data says they deserve better.
3	Angels MLB · 52 pts	27	25▲2	52-78	-42	☠ Cursed 52-78 with a -68 run differential. Getting robbed by the sequencing gods. The data says they deserve better.
4	Nationals MLB · 61 pts	24	9▲15	61-70	-40	☠ Cursed 61-70 despite outscoring opponents by +14 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
↓ Unlucky
5	Mets MLB · 59 pts	25	13▲12	59-71	-39	↓ Unlucky 59-71 with a -39 run differential. The Pythagorean says 61 wins - they have 59. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
6	Athletics MLB · 50 pts	30	28▲2	50-80	-30	↓ Unlucky 50-80 with a -188 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
7	Orioles MLB · 63 pts	19	10▲9	63-67	-26	↓ Unlucky 63-67 with a -33 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
— Neutral
8	Royals MLB · 57 pts	26	26	57-74	-14	— Neutral 57-74 with a -95 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
9	Red Sox MLB · 70 pts	8	6▲2	70-59	-12	— Neutral 70-59 with a +98 run differential. The Pythagorean says 75 wins - they have 70. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
10	Rockies MLB · 50 pts	29	30▼1	50-79	-12	— Neutral 50-79 with a -131 run differential. The Pythagorean says 53 wins - they have 50. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
11	Dodgers MLB · 79 pts	2	1▲1	79-51	-10	— Neutral 79-51 with a +147 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
12	Mariners MLB · 62 pts	21	15▲6	62-68	-7	— Neutral 62-68 with a -44 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
13	Yankees MLB · 73 pts	6	4▲2	73-56	+1	— Neutral 73-56 with a +95 run differential. The Pythagorean says 75 wins - they have 73. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
14	Pirates MLB · 63 pts	18	19▼1	63-68	+2	— Neutral 63-68 with a +29 run differential. The Pythagorean says 68 wins - they have 63. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
15	Twins MLB · 63 pts	20	18▲2	63-67	+2	— Neutral 63-67 with a -47 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	White Sox MLB · 67 pts	11	12▼1	67-62	+3	— Neutral 67-62 with a +42 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Braves MLB · 75 pts	4	3▲1	75-55	+7	— Neutral 75-55 with a +108 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	Blue Jays MLB · 64 pts	16	17▼1	64-67	+7	— Neutral 64-67 with a -50 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Brewers MLB · 81 pts	1	2▼1	81-49	+8	— Neutral 81-49 with a +163 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Cardinals MLB · 66 pts	13	14▼1	66-65	+10	— Neutral 66-65 with a 0 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Padres MLB · 70 pts	9	11▼2	70-60	+14	— Neutral 70-60 with a +9 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
22	Guardians MLB · 64 pts	15	20▼5	64-66	+15	— Neutral 64-66 with a -14 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
23	Phillies MLB · 72 pts	7	8▼1	72-58	+17	↑ Lucky 72 wins from a +25 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.
24	Astros MLB · 65 pts	14	21▼7	65-65	+21	↑ Lucky 65-65 with a -43 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
25	Cubs MLB · 74 pts	5	7▼2	74-56	+26	↑ Lucky 74-56 with a +98 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
26	Marlins MLB · 66 pts	12	23▼11	66-64	+27	↑ Lucky 66-64 with a +17 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
27	$Rangers$ Rangers MLB · 64 pts	17	27▼10	64-66	+35	↑ Lucky 64-66 despite being outscored overall (-48 run diff). Winning when it matters and losing when they can afford to. Unsustainably fortunate.
28	D-backs MLB · 68 pts	10	22▼12	68-62	+38	↑ Lucky 68-62 with a +7 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
29	Reds MLB · 62 pts	22	29▼7	62-68	+40	↑ Lucky 62-68 despite being outscored overall (-92 run diff). Winning when it matters and losing when they can afford to. Unsustainably fortunate.
✦ Blessed
30	Rays MLB · 76 pts	3	16▼13	76-53	+73	✦ Blessed 76 wins from a +42 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.