⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Trend	Highlight	Share
☠ Cursed
1	Tigers MLB · 76 pts	22	5▲17	76-86	-58		☠ Cursed 76-86 despite outscoring opponents by +71 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
2	Giants MLB · 65 pts	27	23▲4	65-97	-57		☠ Cursed 65-97 with a -91 run differential. Getting robbed by the sequencing gods. The data says they deserve better.
3	Angels MLB · 62 pts	29	27▲2	62-100	-50		☠ Cursed 62-100 with a -97 run differential. Getting robbed by the sequencing gods. The data says they deserve better.
4	Mets MLB · 74 pts	25	11▲14	74-88	-50		☠ Cursed 74-88 with a -32 run differential. The Pythagorean says 78 wins - they have 74. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
↓ Unlucky
5	Orioles MLB · 79 pts	17	8▲9	79-82	-33		↓ Unlucky 79-82 with a -21 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
6	Rockies MLB · 58 pts	30	30	58-104	-27		↓ Unlucky 58-104 with a -192 run differential. Getting robbed by the sequencing gods. The data says they deserve better.
7	Nationals MLB · 77 pts	19	12▲7	77-85	-27		↓ Unlucky 77-85 with a +6 run differential. The Pythagorean says 82 wins - they have 77. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
8	Royals MLB · 69 pts	26	26	69-93	-24		↓ Unlucky 69-93 with a -120 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
9	Mariners MLB · 76 pts	23	16▲7	76-86	-23		↓ Unlucky 76-86 with a -58 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
10	Athletics MLB · 64 pts	28	28	64-98	-22		↓ Unlucky 64-98 with a -238 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
11	Cardinals MLB · 77 pts	20	15▲5	77-85	-19		↓ Unlucky 77-85 with a -29 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
— Neutral
12	Twins MLB · 77 pts	21	19▲2	77-85	-7		— Neutral 77-85 with a -58 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
13	Red Sox MLB · 87 pts	9	6▲3	87-75	-3		— Neutral 87-75 with a +78 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Dodgers MLB · 100 pts	2	1▲1	100-62	-2		— Neutral 100-62 with a +201 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
15	Astros MLB · 81 pts	14	17▼3	81-81	+3		— Neutral 81-81 with a -32 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Yankees MLB · 93 pts	5	3▲2	93-68	+6		— Neutral 93-68 with a +138 run differential. The Pythagorean says 96 wins - they have 93. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
17	White Sox MLB · 84 pts	12	13▼1	84-78	+11		— Neutral 84-78 with a +56 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	Marlins MLB · 80 pts	15	21▼6	80-82	+11		— Neutral 80-82 with a +3 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Blue Jays MLB · 79 pts	18	22▼4	79-83	+12		— Neutral 79-83 with a -46 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Phillies MLB · 88 pts	8	9▼1	88-74	+13		— Neutral 88 wins from a +15 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.
↑ Lucky
21	Cubs MLB · 89 pts	7	7	89-73	+16		↑ Lucky 89-73 with a +147 run differential. The Pythagorean says 95 wins - they have 89. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
22	Pirates MLB · 82 pts	13	18▼5	82-80	+17		↑ Lucky 82-80 with a +28 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
23	Rangers MLB · 80 pts	16	25▼9	80-82	+20		↑ Lucky 80-82 with a -46 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
24	Braves MLB · 94 pts	4	4	94-68	+26		↑ Lucky 94-68 with a +116 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
25	Brewers MLB · 103 pts	1	2▼1	103-59	+29		↑ Lucky 103-59 with a +214 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
26	Padres MLB · 91 pts	6	10▼4	91-71	+29		↑ Lucky 91-71 with a +41 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
27	Guardians MLB · 85 pts	11	20▼9	85-77	+34		↑ Lucky 85-77 with a +11 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
✦ Blessed
28	Reds MLB · 75 pts	24	29▼5	75-87	+42		✦ Blessed 75-87 despite being outscored overall (-160 run diff). Winning when it matters and losing when they can afford to. Unsustainably fortunate.
29	D-backs MLB · 86 pts	10	24▼14	86-76	+49		✦ Blessed 86-76 with a +9 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
30	Rays MLB · 98 pts	3	14▼11	98-64	+85		✦ Blessed 98 wins from a +86 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.