The MLB CLS uses the Pythagorean expectation formula (runs scored and allowed) to determine which baseball teams are winning more or fewer games than their run differential predicts.

What is Pythagorean expectation in baseball?

Invented by Bill James, it estimates expected wins from runs scored and allowed: Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Deviation from this = luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Tigers MLB · 39 pts	24	7▲17	39-50	-52	☠ Cursed 39-50 despite outscoring opponents by +8 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
2	Mets MLB · 36 pts	29	17▲12	36-53	-49	☠ Cursed 36-53 with a -62 run differential. The Pythagorean says 38 wins - they have 36. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
↓ Unlucky
3	Angels MLB · 36 pts	27	23▲4	36-54	-37	↓ Unlucky 36-54 with a -56 run differential. The Pythagorean says 40 wins - they have 36. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
4	Royals MLB · 35 pts	30	25▲5	35-54	-32	↓ Unlucky 35-54 with a -88 run differential. The Pythagorean says 36 wins - they have 35. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
5	Red Sox MLB · 39 pts	25	20▲5	39-48	-24	↓ Unlucky 39-48 despite outscoring opponents by +3 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
6	Orioles MLB · 42 pts	20	9▲11	42-48	-24	↓ Unlucky 42-48 with a -27 run differential. The Pythagorean says 42 wins - they have 42. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
7	Mariners MLB · 46 pts	11	5▲6	46-44	-16	↓ Unlucky 46-44 with a +23 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
— Neutral
8	Yankees MLB · 49 pts	6	4▲2	49-39	-12	— Neutral 49-39 with a +83 run differential. The Pythagorean says 53 wins - they have 49. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
9	Braves MLB · 52 pts	3	3	52-35	-10	— Neutral 52-35 with a +97 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
10	Dodgers MLB · 59 pts	1	1	59-31	-9	— Neutral 59-31 with a +166 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
11	Brewers MLB · 54 pts	2	2	54-33	-8	— Neutral 54-33 with a +126 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
12	Rockies MLB · 36 pts	28	29▼1	36-54	-7	— Neutral 36-54 with a -80 run differential. The Pythagorean says 38 wins - they have 36. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
13	Twins MLB · 43 pts	18	15▲3	43-47	-5	— Neutral 43-47 with a -22 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Padres MLB · 43 pts	19	18▲1	43-45	0	— Neutral 43-45 with a -45 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
15	Pirates MLB · 45 pts	14	12▲2	45-45	+2	— Neutral 45-45 with a +27 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Giants MLB · 37 pts	26	30▼4	37-51	+3	— Neutral 37-51 with a -65 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	White Sox MLB · 46 pts	12	10▲2	46-42	+4	— Neutral 46-42 with a +25 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	$Rangers$ Rangers MLB · 45 pts	15	13▲2	45-44	+6	— Neutral 45-44 with a -5 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
19	Blue Jays MLB · 42 pts	21	24▼3	42-47	+6	— Neutral 42-47 with a -38 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Nationals MLB · 46 pts	13	11▲2	46-44	+8	— Neutral 46-44 with a +15 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Athletics MLB · 41 pts	22	26▼4	41-48	+9	— Neutral 41-48 with a -71 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
22	Astros MLB · 44 pts	16	21▼5	44-47	+10	— Neutral 44-47 with a -46 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
23	Cubs MLB · 49 pts	7	6▲1	49-40	+12	— Neutral 49-40 with a +44 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
24	Reds MLB · 40 pts	23	28▼5	40-48	+17	↑ Lucky 40-48 with a -61 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
25	Phillies MLB · 50 pts	5	8▼3	50-39	+24	↑ Lucky 50 wins from a +10 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.
26	Marlins MLB · 48 pts	8	14▼6	48-42	+27	↑ Lucky 48-42 with a +23 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
27	Guardians MLB · 47 pts	10	19▼9	47-43	+29	↑ Lucky 47-43 with a -8 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
28	D-backs MLB · 44 pts	17	27▼10	44-44	+31	↑ Lucky 44-44 with a -28 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
29	Cardinals MLB · 47 pts	9	22▼13	47-39	+37	↑ Lucky 47-39 with a +15 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
✦ Blessed
30	Rays MLB · 52 pts	4	16▼12	52-34	+58	✦ Blessed 52-34 with a +37 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.