The MLB CLS uses the Pythagorean expectation formula (runs scored and allowed) to determine which baseball teams are winning more or fewer games than their run differential predicts.

What is Pythagorean expectation in baseball?

Invented by Bill James, it estimates expected wins from runs scored and allowed: Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Deviation from this = luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Season

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

Season

Sort By

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Mets MLB · 21 pts	23	11▲12	21-28	-39	↓ Unlucky 21-28 with a -14 run differential. The Pythagorean says 23 wins - they have 21. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
2	Tigers MLB · 20 pts	25	21▲4	20-30	-32	↓ Unlucky 20-30 with a -21 run differential. The Pythagorean says 23 wins - they have 20. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
3	Mariners MLB · 24 pts	17	9▲8	24-27	-21	↓ Unlucky 24-27 with a +11 run differential. The Pythagorean says 27 wins - they have 24. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
4	Yankees MLB · 30 pts	4	3▲1	30-20	-16	↓ Unlucky 30-20 with a +69 run differential. The Pythagorean says 32 wins - they have 30. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
5	Dodgers MLB · 31 pts	3	2▲1	31-19	-15	↓ Unlucky 31-19 with a +98 run differential. The Pythagorean says 35 wins - they have 31. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
6	Angels MLB · 17 pts	30	29▲1	17-33	-15	↓ Unlucky 17-33 with a -68 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
7	Blue Jays MLB · 22 pts	21	20▲1	22-27	-15	↓ Unlucky 22-27 with a -12 run differential. The Pythagorean says 23 wins - they have 22. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
— Neutral
8	Orioles MLB · 21 pts	24	23▲1	21-29	-13	— Neutral 21-29 with a -59 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
9	$Rangers$ Rangers MLB · 24 pts	18	13▲5	24-25	-10	— Neutral 24-25 with a +13 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
10	Astros MLB · 20 pts	27	26▲1	20-31	-8	— Neutral 20-31 with a -56 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
11	Twins MLB · 23 pts	19	18▲1	23-27	-6	— Neutral 23-27 with a -1 run differential. The Pythagorean says 25 wins - they have 23. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
12	Royals MLB · 20 pts	26	27▼1	20-30	-6	— Neutral 20-30 with a -30 run differential. The Pythagorean says 22 wins - they have 20. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
13	Rockies MLB · 19 pts	29	28▲1	19-31	-3	— Neutral 19-31 with a -54 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Pirates MLB · 25 pts	11	12▼1	25-24	-2	— Neutral 25-24 with a +22 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
15	Padres MLB · 29 pts	8	4▲4	29-20	-1	— Neutral 29-20 with a +3 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
16	Brewers MLB · 29 pts	5	5	29-18	+1	— Neutral 29-18 with a +75 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Phillies MLB · 25 pts	16	14▲2	25-25	+2	— Neutral 25-25 with a -24 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
18	Red Sox MLB · 22 pts	22	24▼2	22-27	+3	— Neutral 22-27 with a -11 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Athletics MLB · 25 pts	12	15▼3	25-24	+6	— Neutral 25-24 with a -5 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Reds MLB · 26 pts	10	10	26-24	+6	— Neutral 26-24 with a -28 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
21	Braves MLB · 34 pts	1	1	34-16	+8	— Neutral 34-16 with a +98 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
22	Guardians MLB · 29 pts	6	6	29-22	+8	— Neutral 29-22 with a +21 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
23	Marlins MLB · 22 pts	20	25▼5	22-28	+9	— Neutral 22-28 with a -13 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
24	D-backs MLB · 25 pts	14	16▼2	25-23	+9	— Neutral 25-23 with a -2 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
25	White Sox MLB · 25 pts	15	17▼2	25-24	+10	— Neutral 25-24 with a -12 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
26	Nationals MLB · 25 pts	13	19▼6	25-25	+12	— Neutral 25-25 with a -15 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
27	Giants MLB · 20 pts	28	30▼2	20-30	+15	— Neutral 20-30 with a -52 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
28	Cubs MLB · 29 pts	7	8▼1	29-21	+18	↑ Lucky 29-21 with a +28 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
✦ Blessed
29	Cardinals MLB · 28 pts	9	22▼13	28-20	+41	✦ Blessed 28-20 with a -1 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
30	Rays MLB · 33 pts	2	7▼5	33-15	+53	✦ Blessed 33 wins from a +40 run differential. Winning tight games at an unsustainable rate. One of the luckiest teams in baseball.