The MLB CLS uses the Pythagorean expectation formula (runs scored and allowed) to determine which baseball teams are winning more or fewer games than their run differential predicts.

What is Pythagorean expectation in baseball?

Invented by Bill James, it estimates expected wins from runs scored and allowed: Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Deviation from this = luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Tigers MLB · 47 pts	22	5▲17	47-54	-55	☠ Cursed 47-54 despite outscoring opponents by +24 runs. One of the most cursed teams in baseball - close games and sequencing are destroying them.
2	Mets MLB · 43 pts	25	12▲13	43-59	-52	☠ Cursed 43-59 with a -63 run differential. The Pythagorean says 45 wins - they have 43. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
3	Angels MLB · 41 pts	29	22▲7	41-61	-40	☠ Cursed 41-61 with a -57 run differential. The Pythagorean says 45 wins - they have 41. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
↓ Unlucky
4	Orioles MLB · 49 pts	19	8▲11	49-52	-29	↓ Unlucky 49-52 with a -14 run differential. The Pythagorean says 49 wins - they have 49. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
5	Mariners MLB · 51 pts	14	6▲8	51-51	-24	↓ Unlucky 51-51 with a +19 run differential. The Pythagorean says 53 wins - they have 51. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
6	Giants MLB · 42 pts	27	27	42-59	-18	↓ Unlucky 42-59 with a -63 run differential. The Pythagorean says 44 wins - they have 42. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
7	Royals MLB · 42 pts	28	26▲2	42-60	-18	↓ Unlucky 42-60 with a -97 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
8	Red Sox MLB · 51 pts	13	9▲4	51-48	-16	↓ Unlucky 51-48 with a +46 run differential. The Pythagorean says 55 wins - they have 51. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
— Neutral
9	Braves MLB · 58 pts	3	3	58-42	-14	— Neutral 58-42 with a +104 run differential. The Pythagorean says 61 wins - they have 58. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
10	Yankees MLB · 56 pts	6	4▲2	56-44	-12	— Neutral 56-44 with a +88 run differential. The Pythagorean says 59 wins - they have 56. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
11	Dodgers MLB · 64 pts	1	1	64-38	-9	— Neutral 64-38 with a +153 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
12	Padres MLB · 50 pts	18	10▲8	50-51	-9	— Neutral 50-51 with a -28 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
13	Blue Jays MLB · 46 pts	23	23	46-55	-8	— Neutral 46-55 with a -61 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Athletics MLB · 43 pts	26	28▼2	43-58	-6	— Neutral 43-58 with a -112 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
15	Rockies MLB · 41 pts	30	30	41-62	-2	— Neutral 41-62 with a -93 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Nationals MLB · 51 pts	15	14▲1	51-51	-1	— Neutral 51-51 with a +18 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Brewers MLB · 63 pts	2	2	63-38	+2	— Neutral 63-38 with a +132 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	Twins MLB · 49 pts	20	21▼1	49-53	+9	— Neutral 49-53 with a -36 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Pirates MLB · 52 pts	10	15▼5	52-49	+10	— Neutral 52-49 with a +51 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	White Sox MLB · 53 pts	9	11▼2	53-47	+11	— Neutral 53-47 with a +42 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Astros MLB · 49 pts	21	25▼4	49-54	+14	— Neutral 49-54 with a -48 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
↑ Lucky
22	$Rangers$ Rangers MLB · 51 pts	17	17	51-50	+18	↑ Lucky 51-50 despite being outscored overall (-28 run diff). Winning when it matters and losing when they can afford to. Unsustainably fortunate.
23	Cubs MLB · 57 pts	5	7▼2	57-44	+19	↑ Lucky 57-44 with a +69 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
24	Cardinals MLB · 51 pts	16	20▼4	51-49	+21	↑ Lucky 51-49 with a -1 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
25	Reds MLB · 46 pts	24	29▼5	46-54	+21	↑ Lucky 46-54 with a -65 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
26	Marlins MLB · 52 pts	11	18▼7	52-50	+25	↑ Lucky 52-50 with a +14 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
27	Phillies MLB · 56 pts	7	13▼6	56-46	+30	↑ Lucky 56-46 despite being outscored overall (-11 run diff). Winning when it matters and losing when they can afford to. Unsustainably fortunate.
28	D-backs MLB · 52 pts	12	24▼12	52-49	+33	↑ Lucky 52-49 with a -13 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
29	Guardians MLB · 54 pts	8	16▼8	54-48	+36	↑ Lucky 54-48 with a 0 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
✦ Blessed
30	Rays MLB · 58 pts	4	19▼15	58-42	+64	✦ Blessed 58-42 with a +30 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.