The MLB CLS uses the Pythagorean expectation formula (runs scored and allowed) to determine which baseball teams are winning more or fewer games than their run differential predicts.

What is Pythagorean expectation in baseball?

Invented by Bill James, it estimates expected wins from runs scored and allowed: Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Deviation from this = luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

⚾ MLB CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

Baseball invented luck analytics. Bill James' Pythagorean formula (expected wins from runs scored and allowed) has been validated across 40+ years of data. The MLB CURSD Luck Score (CLS) builds on that foundation with 4 orthogonal signals: Pythagorean delta (30%), one-run game record with Bayesian shrinkage toward .500 (20%), batting luck from Statcast xwOBA vs actual wOBA (25%), and pitching luck from xERA vs actual ERA (25%). Statcast data from Baseball Savant strips out defense, sequencing, and BABIP noise to isolate true hitting and pitching performance. A team that rakes in expected metrics but can't buy a hit with runners in scoring position will show up as deeply cursed. Statcast signal weights ramp up with season progress, reaching full strength at 40+ games when the sample is reliable.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Mets MLB · 7 pts	29	15▲14	7-15	-23	↓ Unlucky 7-15 with a -25 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
2	Mariners MLB · 10 pts	20	4▲16	10-14	-20	↓ Unlucky 10-14 with a +4 run differential. The Pythagorean says 13 wins - they have 10. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
3	Astros MLB · 9 pts	22	9▲13	9-15	-19	↓ Unlucky 9-15 with a -12 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
— Neutral
4	Twins MLB · 11 pts	17	6▲11	11-11	-14	— Neutral 11-11 with a +12 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
5	Braves MLB · 16 pts	1	1	16-7	-9	— Neutral 16-7 with a +62 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
6	Tigers MLB · 12 pts	11	5▲6	12-11	-9	— Neutral 12-11 with a +17 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
7	Yankees MLB · 13 pts	6	2▲4	13-9	-9	— Neutral 13-9 with a +28 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
8	Royals MLB · 7 pts	30	24▲6	7-16	-9	— Neutral 7-16 with a -34 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
9	Angels MLB · 11 pts	15	10▲5	11-13	-6	— Neutral 11-13 with a +8 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
10	$Rangers$ Rangers MLB · 11 pts	16	11▲5	11-11	-6	— Neutral 11-11 with a +10 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
11	Red Sox MLB · 9 pts	23	19▲4	9-13	-6	— Neutral 9-13 with a -13 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
12	Orioles MLB · 11 pts	19	13▲6	11-12	-6	— Neutral 11-12 with a -5 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
13	Nationals MLB · 10 pts	21	17▲4	10-13	-4	— Neutral 10-13 with a -18 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Phillies MLB · 8 pts	28	25▲3	8-14	-3	— Neutral 8-14 with a -42 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
15	Rockies MLB · 9 pts	24	22▲2	9-14	-1	— Neutral 9-14 with a -19 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Blue Jays MLB · 9 pts	25	23▲2	9-13	-1	— Neutral 9-13 with a -23 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Cubs MLB · 13 pts	5	7▼2	13-9	0	— Neutral 13-9 with a +34 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	White Sox MLB · 8 pts	27	28▼1	8-14	0	— Neutral 8-14 with a -31 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Brewers MLB · 12 pts	12	14▼2	12-9	+1	— Neutral 12-9 with a +19 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Pirates MLB · 13 pts	7	12▼5	13-9	+4	— Neutral 13-9 with a +25 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Giants MLB · 9 pts	26	29▼3	9-13	+5	— Neutral 9-13 with a -21 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
22	Marlins MLB · 11 pts	18	20▼2	11-12	+6	— Neutral 11-12 with a +1 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
23	Dodgers MLB · 16 pts	2	3▼1	16-6	+6	— Neutral 16-6 with a +57 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
24	Guardians MLB · 13 pts	8	16▼8	13-11	+10	— Neutral 13-11 with a -7 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
25	Padres MLB · 15 pts	3	8▼5	15-7	+10	— Neutral 15-7 with a +17 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
26	D-backs MLB · 13 pts	9	18▼9	13-9	+12	— Neutral 13-9 with a -3 run differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
27	Athletics MLB · 12 pts	14	26▼12	12-11	+17	↑ Lucky 12-11 with a -17 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
28	Rays MLB · 12 pts	13	27▼14	12-10	+19	↑ Lucky 12-10 with a -11 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
29	Cardinals MLB · 13 pts	10	30▼20	13-9	+26	↑ Lucky 13-9 with a -10 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.
30	Reds MLB · 15 pts	4	21▼17	15-8	+28	↑ Lucky 15-8 with a -3 run differential. Winning more than their run production justifies. The data says regression is coming.