What is the Bundesliga Luck Index?

The Bundesliga Luck Index uses expected goals (xG) to measure which German league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative Luck Index, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Bundesliga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Bundesliga Luck Index Rankings

Data last updated Apr 8, 2026, 9:59 AM UTC

The Bundesliga Luck Index ranks all 18 German league teams using expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS). From Bayern Munich and Dortmund to the relegation playoff, see which Bundesliga teams are lucky and which are cursed.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	Luck Index	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga · 21 pts	17	16▲1	5W 6D 17L	-65	☠ Cursed 9.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 28 pts	14	11▲3	7W 7D 14L	-44	☠ Cursed Scored 4 fewer than xG (31 from 35.24 xG). 7.6 pts below expected.
3	1. FC Heidenheim Bundesliga · 16 pts	18	17▲1	3W 7D 18L	-43	☠ Cursed Scored 7 fewer than xG (29 from 36.36 xG). 13.6 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
4	FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga · 33 pts	9	9	8W 9D 11L	-37	↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (35 from 41.37 xG). 4.0 pts below expected.
5	1. FC Köln Bundesliga · 27 pts	15	12▲3	6W 9D 13L	-17	↓ Unlucky 7.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Union Berlin Bundesliga · 32 pts	10	10	8W 8D 12L	-15	↓ Unlucky 5.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
7	Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga · 30 pts	13	13	7W 9D 12L	-13	— Neutral 4.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	SC Freiburg Bundesliga · 37 pts	8	7▲1	10W 7D 11L	-1	— Neutral 2.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	FC St. Pauli Bundesliga · 25 pts	16	18▼2	6W 7D 15L	+3	— Neutral 2.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	FC Augsburg Bundesliga · 32 pts	11	15▼4	9W 5D 14L	+3	— Neutral 1.1 points above expected.
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11	RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 53 pts	3	4▼1	16W 5D 7L	+3	— Neutral 6.8 points above expected.
12	Hamburger SV Bundesliga · 31 pts	12	14▼2	7W 10D 11L	+8	— Neutral 0.1 points above expected.
13	Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga · 49 pts	6	3▲3	14W 7D 7L	+15	— Neutral Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.4 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
14	Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga · 39 pts	7	8▼1	10W 9D 9L	+18	↑ Lucky Scored 14 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.5 extra pts.
15	VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga · 53 pts	4	5▼1	16W 5D 7L	+35	↑ Lucky Scored 8 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 8.5 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
16	1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga · 50 pts	5	6▼1	15W 5D 8L	+42	✦ Blessed Scored 10 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.0 extra pts.
17	Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga · 64 pts	2	2	19W 7D 2L	+45	✦ Blessed Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 15.4 extra pts.
18	Bayern München Bundesliga · 73 pts	1	1	23W 4D 1L	+62	✦ Blessed Scored 17 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 11.8 extra pts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Luck Index Evolution

How each team's Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).