What is the Bundesliga CLS?

The Bundesliga CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which German league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Bundesliga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Bundesliga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

The Bundesliga's open, attacking style produces the highest goal counts in European football, which means more data points and more reliable xG models. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using 7 signals: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck (18%), defensive luck, shot domination, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling. In a league where Bayern's financial dominance makes the title race predictable, the CLS is most revealing in the 2nd-through-7th positions: which teams are genuinely competing for Champions League spots and which are riding a finishing hot streak that won't last.

Season

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How is this calculated?

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga · 0 pts	18	18	0W 0D 4L	-18	↓ Unlucky 3.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
2	Union Berlin Bundesliga · 1 pts	17	17	0W 1D 3L	-14	— Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
3	1. FC Köln Bundesliga · 4 pts	12	11▲1	1W 1D 2L	-14	— Neutral 1.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga · 3 pts	14	14	1W 0D 3L	-8	— Neutral 2.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga · 3 pts	15	15	1W 0D 3L	-8	— Neutral 0.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga · 7 pts	5	4▲1	2W 1D 1L	-6	— Neutral 0.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga · 7 pts	4	5▼1	2W 1D 1L	-5	— Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Hamburger SV Bundesliga · 3 pts	16	16	1W 0D 3L	-4	— Neutral 0.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga · 5 pts	10	10	1W 2D 1L	-3	— Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 6 pts	9	7▲2	2W 0D 2L	-2	— Neutral 1.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	SC SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga · 4 pts	13	13	1W 1D 2L	+3	— Neutral 0.8 points above expected.
12	Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 7 pts	6	6	2W 1D 1L	+3	— Neutral 2.4 points above expected.
13	FC FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga · 5 pts	11	12▼1	1W 2D 1L	+4	— Neutral 1.0 points above expected.
14	Bayern München Bundesliga · 10 pts	2	2	3W 1D 0L	+9	— Neutral 0.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
15	Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga · 12 pts	1	1	4W 0D 0L	+13	— Neutral 4.3 points above expected.
16	SC Freiburg Bundesliga · 10 pts	3	3	3W 1D 0L	+15	— Neutral 1.2 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
17	SV SV Elversberg Bundesliga · 7 pts	7	8▼1	2W 1D 1L	+17	↑ Lucky 2.9 points above expected.
18	FC Augsburg Bundesliga · 7 pts	8	9▼1	2W 1D 1L	+19	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.1 extra pts.