What is the Bundesliga CLS?

The Bundesliga CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which German league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Bundesliga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Bundesliga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

The Bundesliga's open, attacking style produces the highest goal counts in European football, which means more data points and more reliable xG models. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using 7 signals: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck (18%), defensive luck, shot domination, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling. In a league where Bayern's financial dominance makes the title race predictable, the CLS is most revealing in the 2nd-through-7th positions: which teams are genuinely competing for Champions League spots and which are riding a finishing hot streak that won't last.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga · 24 pts	17	12▲5	6W 6D 18L	-56	☠ Cursed 8.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga · 34 pts	10	7▲3	8W 10D 12L	-40	☠ Cursed Scored 8 fewer than xG (36 from 44.24 xG). 6.7 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	1. FC Heidenheim Bundesliga · 19 pts	18	18	4W 7D 19L	-36	↓ Unlucky Scored 7 fewer than xG (33 from 39.79 xG). 13.9 pts below expected.
4	Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 31 pts	13	10▲3	8W 7D 15L	-35	↓ Unlucky 7.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Union Berlin Bundesliga · 32 pts	11	11	8W 8D 14L	-20	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (34 from 38.22 xG). 8.3 pts below expected.
— Neutral
6	1. FC Köln Bundesliga · 31 pts	12	14▼2	7W 10D 13L	-12	— Neutral 7.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga · 31 pts	14	15▼1	7W 10D 13L	-12	— Neutral 5.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	FC St. Pauli Bundesliga · 26 pts	16	17▼1	6W 8D 16L	-4	— Neutral 3.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Hamburger SV Bundesliga · 31 pts	15	16▼1	7W 10D 13L	+1	— Neutral 0.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	SC Freiburg Bundesliga · 43 pts	7	8▼1	12W 7D 11L	+6	— Neutral 0.7 points above expected.
11	RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 59 pts	3	2▲1	18W 5D 7L	+6	— Neutral 9.3 points above expected.
12	FC Augsburg Bundesliga · 36 pts	9	13▼4	10W 6D 14L	+10	— Neutral 2.7 points above expected.
13	Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga · 52 pts	6	4▲2	15W 7D 8L	+13	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.1 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
14	Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga · 42 pts	8	9▼1	11W 9D 10L	+18	↑ Lucky Scored 15 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.6 extra pts.
15	Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga · 64 pts	2	3▼1	19W 7D 4L	+33	↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 13.0 extra pts.
16	VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga · 56 pts	4	5▼1	17W 5D 8L	+34	↑ Lucky Scored 10 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 8.7 extra pts.
17	1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga · 54 pts	5	6▼1	16W 6D 8L	+39	↑ Lucky Scored 10 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.9 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
18	Bayern München Bundesliga · 79 pts	1	1	25W 4D 1L	+56	✦ Blessed Scored 18 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 12.7 extra pts.