What is the Bundesliga CLS?

The Bundesliga CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which German league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Bundesliga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Bundesliga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

The Bundesliga's open, attacking style produces the highest goal counts in European football, which means more data points and more reliable xG models. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using 7 signals: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck (18%), defensive luck, shot domination, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling. In a league where Bayern's financial dominance makes the title race predictable, the CLS is most revealing in the 2nd-through-7th positions: which teams are genuinely competing for Champions League spots and which are riding a finishing hot streak that won't last.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga · 30 pts	16	10▲6	7W 9D 19L	-62	☠ Cursed 11.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
↓ Unlucky
2	Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 32 pts	15	13▲2	8W 8D 18L	-39	↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (37 from 41.81 xG). 8.9 pts below expected.
3	FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga · 40 pts	10	7▲3	10W 10D 14L	-39	↓ Unlucky Scored 11 fewer than xG (44 from 54.75 xG). 7.3 pts below expected.
4	1. FC Heidenheim Bundesliga · 26 pts	17	17	6W 8D 20L	-31	↓ Unlucky Scored 7 fewer than xG (41 from 47.88 xG). 12.6 pts below expected.
5	1. FC Köln Bundesliga · 32 pts	14	15▼1	7W 11D 16L	-30	↓ Unlucky 11.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Union Berlin Bundesliga · 39 pts	11	9▲2	10W 9D 15L	-16	↓ Unlucky 7.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
7	FC St. Pauli Bundesliga · 26 pts	18	18	6W 8D 20L	-12	— Neutral 6.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga · 38 pts	12	14▼2	9W 11D 14L	-6	— Neutral 2.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 65 pts	3	3	20W 5D 9L	+3	— Neutral 9.3 points above expected.
10	SC SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga · 1 pts	19	19	undefinedW 1D 0L	+7	— Neutral 0.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	SC Freiburg Bundesliga · 47 pts	7	8▼1	13W 8D 13L	+8	— Neutral 1.2 points above expected.
12	Hamburger SV Bundesliga · 38 pts	13	16▼3	9W 11D 14L	+9	— Neutral 0.6 points above expected.
13	FC Augsburg Bundesliga · 43 pts	9	12▼3	12W 7D 15L	+11	— Neutral 3.4 points above expected.
14	Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga · 44 pts	8	11▼3	11W 11D 12L	+12	— Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
↑ Lucky
15	Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga · 59 pts	6	5▲1	17W 8D 9L	+17	↑ Lucky 2.8 points above expected.
16	VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga · 62 pts	4	4	18W 8D 8L	+32	↑ Lucky Scored 11 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 8.4 extra pts.
17	1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga · 61 pts	5	6▼1	18W 7D 9L	+35	↑ Lucky Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 10.2 extra pts.
18	Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga · 73 pts	2	2	22W 7D 5L	+36	↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 14.5 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
19	Bayern München Bundesliga · 89 pts	1	1	28W 5D 1L	+65	✦ Blessed Scored 21 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 17.0 extra pts.