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Daily data-driven analysis of luck in professional sports. Every Premier League match gets a CURSD Match Report scoring which team was lucky and which was cursed. Plus weekly deep-dives on team seasons, signal rankings, and regression watches across 9 leagues.
166 articles published. New analysis every day at 10:00 UTC.
Hellas VeronaSeason analysisThe Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation.
The Mets Are Hitting Better Than They're Hitting
New York ranks as MLB's most cursed team, and the numbers confirm it's not all deserved.
122-113
Oklahoma City Thunder 122-113 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 122-113 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 55%-58%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-4
Colorado Avalanche 2-4 Vegas Golden Knights: The Margins Went Against Colorado Avalanche | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 2-4 Vegas Golden Knights. SOG: 38-28. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 21. That gap is historically cruel.
La Liga's Walking Wounded: Ranking Every Club by Injury Burden
Girona have lost 251 player-games to injury this season. Espanyol have lost 66. The gap between those two numbers is enormous.
115-104
New York Knicks 115-104 Cleveland Cavaliers OT: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 115-104 Cleveland Cavaliers in OT. eFG: 53%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-1
Tottenham Deserved More. The Data Proves It.
Tottenham created 1.7 xG but lost 2-1. The xG gap of 1.1 tells a different story.
1-1
The Data Agrees: Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City Was About Right
Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 37: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say midtable. Their actual points say dead last.
La Liga's Luck Ledger: Barcelona's 23-Point Mirage and Athletic Club's Missing Rewards
The xPoints model sees a very different table than the one La Liga is showing you.
115-122Oklahoma City Thunder 115-122 San Antonio Spurs OT: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 115-122 San Antonio Spurs in OT. eFG: 49%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
2-3
Buffalo Sabres 2-3 Montréal Canadiens (OT): Buffalo Sabres Robbed by the Numbers | Playoffs
Buffalo Sabres 39 shots, Montréal Canadiens 25 shots. Final 2-3 in OT. Buffalo Sabres on the wrong side of finishing variance.
1-0
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley: Deserved on Both Sides
Arsenal 1-0 Burnley (xG: 1.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say they should have 43 points. They have 21.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
Pisa, Athletic Club, Hellas Verona, the Brooklyn Nets, and Wolves are all cursed by the same math.
94-125Detroit Pistons 94-125 Cleveland Cavaliers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 94-125 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 42%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-1
West Ham Lose Despite Matching Newcastle on xG
Newcastle 3-1 West Ham (xG: 1.7-0.9). The numbers match the result.
2-2
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.0-1.7). The numbers match the result.
1-3
The xG Told a Different Story: Everton 1-3 Sunderland
Everton created 1.1 xG but lost 1-3. The xG gap of 0.3 tells a different story.
1-1
Wolves 1-1 Fulham: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Wolves 1-1 Fulham (xG: 1.4-1.5). The numbers match the result.
3-2
The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest (xG: 4.2-1.8). The numbers match the result.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say dead last.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 10-point gap between expected and actual points tells the story of San Mamés's cruelest season.
109-139Minnesota Timberwolves 109-139 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 109-139 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 43%-66%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
94-115Cleveland Cavaliers 94-115 Detroit Pistons: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 94-115 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 47%-62%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
4-2
How Liverpool Got Cursed Against Aston Villa
xG: Aston Villa 1.9 - 1.5 Liverpool. Liverpool on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 4-2.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Ball Isn't Lying, But the Results Are
Ranking every MLB team's batting luck by the gap between wOBA and expected wOBA through mid-May 2026.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Canucks Finished Dead Last in Our Luck Index. They Earned Most of It.
Vancouver posted the NHL's worst Luck Index at -47, but the real curse was the team itself.
113-117Detroit Pistons 113-117 Cleveland Cavaliers OT: The Margins Went Against Detroit Pistons | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 113-117 Cleveland Cavaliers in OT. eFG: 50%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
4-3
Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Minnesota Wild (OT): A Fair Result | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Minnesota Wild in OT. SOG: 34-20. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-00.9 xG Gap, Zero Points: Crystal Palace's Night in Numbers
xG: Manchester City 1.6 - 0.7 Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Bundesliga's 16.5-Point Luck Gap Is Hiding Two Different Realities
Wolfsburg's actual record says relegation scrap. Their underlying numbers say comfortable midtable. Bayern's title dominance, meanwhile, came with a 16.5-point tailwind.
126-97San Antonio Spurs 126-97 Minnesota Timberwolves: A Fair Result | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 126-97 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 59%-44%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 36: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
Regression Watch: The Bundesliga's Luck Ledger Is Overdrawn
Wolfsburg are 12 expected points below their actual total. The math has questions.
110-115Los Angeles Lakers 110-115 Oklahoma City Thunder: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers 110-115 Oklahoma City Thunder. eFG: 57%-59%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
112-103Cleveland Cavaliers 112-103 Detroit Pistons: The Margins Went Against Detroit Pistons | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 112-103 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 53%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-1
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds: Deserved on Both Sides
Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (xG: 1.3-1.3). The numbers match the result.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 42 points. The table says 20.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, the numbers say these five clubs deserve better than their records suggest.
114-109Minnesota Timberwolves 114-109 San Antonio Spurs: The Margins Went Against San Antonio Spurs | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 114-109 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 50%-51%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
114-144Philadelphia 76ers 114-144 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Philadelphia 76ers | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 114-144 New York Knicks. eFG: 55%-68%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-1Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (xG: 1.2-1.6). The numbers match the result.
2-2Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton (xG: 2.7-1.4). The numbers match the result.
2-2Burnley vs Aston Villa: A Fair Fight (2-2)
Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa (xG: 1.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 41 points. The table says 20. Nobody's talking about it.
Regression Watch: Season-End Ledger
The final regular-season numbers are in. The playoffs won't care about your record.
108-131Los Angeles Lakers 108-131 Oklahoma City Thunder: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers 108-131 Oklahoma City Thunder. eFG: 56%-65%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
116-109Cleveland Cavaliers 116-109 Detroit Pistons: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 116-109 Detroit Pistons. eFG: 66%-50%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-0The Data Agrees: Manchester City 3-0 Brentford Was About Right
Manchester City 3-0 Brentford (xG: 3.0-0.2). The numbers match the result.
0-0Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United: Both Teams Got What They Earned
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United (xG: 1.3-0.6). The numbers match the result.
3-0Brighton 3-0 Wolves: The Scoreline Lied About Wolves
xG: Brighton 1.6 - 0.5 Wolves. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
0-1Fulham Won the xG Battle. Lost the Match.
Fulham created 1.3 xG but lost 0-1. The xG gap of 0.5 tells a different story.
1-1Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea: Deserved on Both Sides
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (xG: 0.6-0.5). The numbers match the result.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation was never in doubt.
The Hidden Curse of the Premier League: Tottenham's Season of Painful Variance
Spurs are finishing above their xG, defending below their xGA, and still losing. The numbers are a mess.
108-115Minnesota Timberwolves 108-115 San Antonio Spurs: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 108-115 San Antonio Spurs. eFG: 45%-53%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
94-108Philadelphia 76ers 94-108 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Philadelphia 76ers | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 94-108 New York Knicks. eFG: 48%-56%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation was never in doubt.
The NHL's Pythagorean Gap: Who Got Lucky, Who Got Robbed
The Rangers' goal differential said they were mediocre. Their record said it was worse than that.
125-107Oklahoma City Thunder 125-107 Los Angeles Lakers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 125-107 Los Angeles Lakers. eFG: 64%-57%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
107-97Detroit Pistons 107-97 Cleveland Cavaliers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 107-97 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 57%-46%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Hellas Verona's 20-Point Gap From Reality
Verona's expected points total is double their actual haul. The numbers are staggering.
The Brooklyn Nets Lost Six More Games Than Math Says They Should Have. Math Was Already Being Generous.
Brooklyn finished 20-62, but even that historic wreckage undersells the chaos.
133-95San Antonio Spurs 133-95 Minnesota Timberwolves: The Margins Went Against Minnesota Timberwolves | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 133-95 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 59%-45%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
108-102New York Knicks 108-102 Philadelphia 76ers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 108-102 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 55%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Hellas Verona's Season of Structural Collapse
Verona's expected points total puts them mid-table. Their actual points total puts them in oblivion.
Serie A's Finishing Luck Rankings: Who's Converting and Who's Cursed
Fiorentina have buried 38 goals from 50.7 xG worth of chances. Inter have turned 66.7 xG into 82 goals. The gap is enormous.
108-90Oklahoma City Thunder 108-90 Los Angeles Lakers: The Margins Went Against Los Angeles Lakers | Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder 108-90 Los Angeles Lakers. eFG: 57%-47%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
111-101Detroit Pistons 111-101 Cleveland Cavaliers: The Margins Went Against Cleveland Cavaliers | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 111-101 Cleveland Cavaliers. eFG: 50%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 35: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's expected points say mid-table. Their actual points say relegation crisis.
Serie A Regression Watch: Pisa's 20-Point xPoints Deficit and Inter's Charmed Life
The expected-points model sees a different table than the one Serie A is showing you.
102-104San Antonio Spurs 102-104 Minnesota Timberwolves: The Margins Went Against San Antonio Spurs | Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs 102-104 Minnesota Timberwolves. eFG: 51%-51%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
137-98New York Knicks 137-98 Philadelphia 76ers: A Fair Result | Playoffs
New York Knicks 137-98 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 74%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-3Everton Deserved a Point. The Data Says So.
Everton 3-3 Manchester City (xG: 2.8-1.4). The numbers match the result.
1-30.1 xG Gap, Zero Points: Chelsea's Night in Numbers
xG: Chelsea 1.9 - 2.1 Nottingham Forest. Chelsea on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-3.
1-229 Shots to 9. Tampa Bay Still Lost. This Shouldn't Be Possible.
Montreal scored 2 goals on 9 shots. Tampa scored 1 on 29. The probability of this outcome: 4.65%.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to the Premier League, the numbers say these clubs deserve far better than their records show.
114-102
Cleveland Cavaliers 114-102 Toronto Raptors: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Cleveland Cavaliers 114-102 Toronto Raptors. eFG: 51%-48%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
116-94
Detroit Pistons 116-94 Orlando Magic: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Detroit Pistons 116-94 Orlando Magic. eFG: 61%-48%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
9-6Colorado Avalanche 9-6 Minnesota Wild: The Margins Went Against Minnesota Wild | Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche 9-6 Minnesota Wild. SOG: 43-36. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-2Tampa Bay Lightning 1-2 Montréal Canadiens: The Margins Went Against Tampa Bay Lightning | Playoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning 1-2 Montréal Canadiens. SOG: 29-9. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
1-2The Data Agrees: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Was About Right
Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (xG: 0.3-1.0). The numbers match the result.
3-2The Data Agrees: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool Was About Right
Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (xG: 2.1-0.9). The numbers match the result.
3-0Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace: No Complaints, According to xG
Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace (xG: 2.3-0.8). The numbers match the result.
Regression Watch: The Season's Biggest Luck Gaps, and What They Mean Now
Brooklyn's Luck Index of -64 led all US sports this season. The playoffs don't care.
100-109Boston Celtics 100-109 Philadelphia 76ers: The Margins Went Against Boston Celtics | Playoffs
Boston Celtics 100-109 Philadelphia 76ers. eFG: 47%-54%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
3-0How West Ham Got Cursed Against Brentford
xG: Brentford 2.1 - 0.7 West Ham. West Ham on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 3-0.
3-0Arsenal 3-0 Fulham: Fulham Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Arsenal 3-0 Fulham (xG: 3.0-0.4). The numbers match the result.
1-1Wolves Deserved More. The Data Proves It. (Wolves 1-1 Sunderland)
xG: Wolves 1.8 - 0.6 Sunderland. Wolves on the wrong side of finishing variance. Score: 1-1.
3-1Newcastle 3-1 Brighton: Brighton Left Wondering What Went Wrong
Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (xG: 3.3-1.6). The numbers match the result.
Metz Are Ligue 1's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A 12.92-point gap between expected and actual results makes Metz the league's premier hard-luck story.
The Woodwork Curse: 686 Posts Hit, 129 xG Lost, and the Players the Frame Hates Most
Barcelona lost 5.49 xG to the woodwork this season. Riccardo Orsolini hit the post 7 times. Across five leagues, the frame is an invisible luck factor we now measure.
3-1Leeds 3-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Leeds Fair (+11). xG: 1.65-0.53.
The Rim Lied to These Teams All Season
Ranking every NBA team's shot-quality luck by the gap between their actual eFG% and what their shot diet should have produced.
110-98Minnesota Timberwolves 110-98 Denver Nuggets: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves 110-98 Denver Nuggets. eFG: 49%-52%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
106-93Philadelphia 76ers 106-93 Boston Celtics: The Margins Went Against Boston Celtics | Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers 106-93 Boston Celtics. eFG: 50%-49%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
89-140Atlanta Hawks 89-140 New York Knicks: The Margins Went Against Atlanta Hawks | Playoffs
Atlanta Hawks 89-140 New York Knicks. eFG: 43%-66%. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
5-2
Anaheim Ducks 5-2 Edmonton Oilers: The Margins Went Against Edmonton Oilers | Playoffs
Anaheim Ducks 5-2 Edmonton Oilers. SOG: 31-27. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
5-2
Minnesota Wild 5-2 Dallas Stars: A Fair Result | Playoffs
Minnesota Wild 5-2 Dallas Stars. SOG: 21-23. Per-game CURSD luck breakdown.
The Mets Are 2-6 in One-Run Games and Somehow That's Not Even the Unluckiest Thing About Them
New York ranks as MLB's most cursed team through 30 games, and the numbers are genuinely strange.
La Liga's Defensive Luck Rankings: Who's Leaking Goals They Shouldn't Be?
Athletic Club have conceded 10.3 more goals than expected. Barcelona have conceded 10.6 fewer. The gap between them tells a story.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 34: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
La Liga Regression Watch: The Table Is Lying to You by Nearly 10 Points
Valencia are almost 10 xPoints below where they should be. Barcelona are nearly 20 above.
2-1Manchester United 2-1 Brentford: Were Brentford Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Brentford Robbery (-45) | Manchester United Lucky (+45). xG: 1.36-1.17.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, five clubs the numbers say deserve far better than their records show.
Regression Watch: Season-End Audit
The NBA and NHL regular seasons are done. The luck ledger is not.
1-0Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle: Were Newcastle Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Newcastle Cursed (-53) | Arsenal Lucky (+53). xG: 0.64-0.91.
2-1West Ham 2-1 Everton: Were Everton Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Robbery (-42) | West Ham Lucky (+42). xG: 1.17-1.35.
3-1Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace: Were Crystal Palace Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Cursed (-69) | Liverpool Lucky (+69). xG: 0.91-2.32.
0-1Wolves 0-1 Tottenham: Were Wolves Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Wolves Robbery (-39) | Tottenham Lucky (+39). xG: 0.62-1.05.
1-0Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa: Were Aston Villa Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Aston Villa Robbery (-37) | Fulham Lucky (+37). xG: 1.06-0.71.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A
Hellas Verona's underlying numbers say 39 points. The table says 18.
VfL Wolfsburg Are the Bundesliga's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Agree.
Wolfsburg have lost 8.89 points to variance this season. Nobody else in Germany comes close.
0-5Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest: Were Sunderland Cursed? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Cursed (-55) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+55). xG: 0.70-1.10.
The NBA's Close-Game Ledger: Who Got Lucky and Who Got the Bill
Milwaukee went 3-0 in games decided by five points or fewer. Brooklyn went 1-7. Neither record is as real as it feels.
CURSD Projected EOY EPL Standings: Arsenal Edges Manchester City on Goal Difference
With 5 games left, the CURSD model projects Arsenal as champions, Aston Villa as the fourth Champions League side, and Wolves as the team going down. Full table with projected GS, GA, and GD.
FPL Regression Watch — Gameweek 33: Sell, Buy, Hold
8 attackers running ahead of their xG, 8 attackers running behind. The CURSD finishing-variance read on every Premier League team's most-owned FPL assets.
The Rangers Deserved Better. They Also Deserved This.
New York's season was cursed by close-game carnage, but the underlying team wasn't good enough to outrun it.
0-1Burnley 0-1 Manchester City: Were Burnley Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Fair (-11) | Manchester City Fair (+11). xG: 0.63-3.36.
2-2Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds: Were Bournemouth Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Bournemouth Unlucky (-23) | Leeds Lucky (+23). xG: 1.65-0.81.
The Finishing Gap: Premier League Teams Ranked by Shooting Luck
Crystal Palace have left 13.8 goals on the table this season. Tottenham have conjured 7.3 from thin air.
3-0Brighton 3-0 Chelsea: Were Chelsea Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Chelsea Fair (-12) | Brighton Fair (+12). xG: 2.14-0.37.
Regression Watch: The Premier League's Luck Ledger Is Wildly Unbalanced
Wolves are sitting 15 points below their expected total. Aston Villa are nearly 16 points above theirs.
0-0Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham: Were Crystal Palace Fair? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Crystal Palace Fair (-6) | West Ham Fair (+6). xG: 0.73-0.61.
The Five Unluckiest Teams in World Sport Right Now
From Pisa to Brooklyn, the numbers say these five clubs deserve far better than their records suggest.
4-3
Bruins Outplay Sabres, Lose Anyway in Buffalo
Boston generates the better of the play, trails by a goal, and heads home down a game in the series.
2-1Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal: Were Arsenal Robbery? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Arsenal Robbery (-37) | Manchester City Lucky (+37). xG: 1.41-1.53.
4-3Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland: Were Sunderland Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Sunderland Unlucky (-24) | Aston Villa Lucky (+24). xG: 2.67-1.76.
4-1Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley: Were Burnley Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Burnley Unlucky (-19) | Nottingham Forest Lucky (+19). xG: 1.18-0.36.
1-2Everton 1-2 Liverpool: Were Everton Unlucky? CURSD Match Report
CURSD Luck Score: Everton Unlucky (-25) | Liverpool Lucky (+25). xG: 0.80-1.45.
2-1Did Arsenal Deserve Better? Here Is What the Data Says.
Arsenal hit the post twice, generated more xG, and lost anyway. The margins in the title race just got thinner.
Regression Watch: Season Closes, But the Luck Ledger Stays Open
The NBA and NHL wrapped with massive luck gaps. MLB's early signals are forming. Here's what the numbers buried.
0-1Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.57-0.29. Chelsea Cursed (-78) | Manchester United Lucky (+78).
2-2Tottenham 2-2 Brighton: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.08-0.89. Tottenham Fair (-10) | Brighton Fair (+10).
3-0Leeds 3-0 Wolves: CURSD Match Report
xG: 2.78-0.54. Wolves Unlucky (-21) | Leeds Lucky (+21).
1-2Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.65-3.03. Newcastle Unlucky (-26) | Bournemouth Lucky (+26).
0-0Brentford 0-0 Fulham: CURSD Match Report
xG: 1.36-0.74. Brentford Unlucky (-26) | Fulham Lucky (+26).
0-0Brentford 0-0 Fulham: Leno, a Post, and 1.36 xG Worth of Nothing
Brentford created 1.36 xG, hit the post, and watched Leno make a 90th-minute save that goes in the vast majority of the time. Fulham had zero shots on target.
Pisa Are Serie A's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Confirm What Their Fans Already Knew.
A -16.12 xPoints delta makes Pisa the unluckiest side in Italian football this season.
2026 NBA Playoffs: Which Teams Will Surprise, According to the CURSD Score
The Knicks played like a top-2 seed. The Nuggets are built on sand. The CURSD Score quantifies who earned their spot and who got there on credit.
2026 NHL Playoffs: Which Teams Will Surprise, According to the CURSD Score
Vegas at -48, Buffalo at +68. The CURSD Score says some teams earned their spot and some are there on credit.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A Luck Index of -69 and a 10-point gap between expected and actual points tell the story of San Mamés this season.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
Wolverhampton should have nearly double their actual points total. The math is unforgiving.
The NBA's Pythagorean Liars
Ranking every team by the gap between their record and what their point differential says it should be.
The Hornets Won 44 Games With 46-Win Talent. The Basketball Gods Noticed.
Charlotte posted the NBA's worst Luck Index and still almost made the playoffs outright.
VfL Wolfsburg Are the Bundesliga's Most Cursed Team. The Math Isn't Even Close.
Wolfsburg have lost 11.6 points to variance this season. No one else in Germany comes close.
Pisa Are Serie A's Most Cursed Team. The Math Says They Should Have Nearly Twice Their Points.
A 16-point gap between expected and actual points makes Pisa the unluckiest side in Italy.
Metz Are Ligue 1's Unluckiest Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A -11.88 xPoints delta makes Metz the most cursed side in France by a wide margin.
Athletic Club Are La Liga's Most Cursed Team, and It's Not Particularly Close
A side generating 48 expected points sitting on 38 actual ones. The math is furious.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Most Cursed Team. The Numbers Aren't Even Close.
A 15-point gap between expected and actual tells a story stats rarely tell this loudly.
The Hidden Curse of Serie A: Fiorentina's Season of Vanishing Goals
Fiorentina have created enough chances for 47 goals. They've scored 37. The table doesn't forgive that.
The Hidden Curse of Ligue 1: Nice's Season of Compound Misery
Nice are not secretly elite. But the data says they should not be this deep in trouble.
Wolves Are the Premier League's Unluckiest Team. That Does Not Make Them Good.
A 15-point gap between actual and expected, an 8-goal defensive variance, and a luck-adjusted rank that is still 19th.
0-2Barcelona Out-xG Atleti 1.16 to 0.45, Lose 0-2 Anyway
18 shots, 58% possession, one red card, and a masterclass in why efficiency beats dominance.
1-2
Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern: The Robbery That Wasn't
Bayern outshot, out-created, and out-xG'd Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. The data has no sympathy.
5-2
Roma Concede Five Goals From 1.5 xG Worth of Chances
Inter needed roughly three half-chances to score five times. Roma were there for all of it.
0-1Aston Villa Create 2.4 xG and Lose to 10-Man Brentford
27 shots, 72% possession, a numerical advantage, and a VAR-disallowed goal. Brentford needed 0.4 xG.
2-1Barcelona Generate 3.7 xG, Lose at Real Sociedad
25 shots, two VAR interventions, and a 70th-minute equalizer undone within 60 seconds. The Reale Arena had other plans.