What is the Ligue 1 CLS?

The Ligue 1 CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which French league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Ligue 1 team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Ligue 1 CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Ligue 1 is the most tactically compact of the top 5 leagues, which makes the margins between luck and skill even tighter. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using the same 7-signal model as the other football leagues: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck above or below expected conversion (18%), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline (cards variance), injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. In a league where PSG's resource advantage compresses the table, the CLS reveals which mid-table teams are actually performing at European level and which relegation candidates are just running hot.

Season

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How is this calculated?

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Lens Ligue 1 · 4 pts	15	13▲2	1W 1D 3L	-21	↓ Unlucky 3.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	Le Havre Ligue 1 · 2 pts	18	18	0W 2D 3L	-16	↓ Unlucky 4.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
3	EST Estac Troyes Ligue 1 · 4 pts	16	15▲1	1W 1D 3L	-13	— Neutral 0.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	Toulouse Ligue 1 · 5 pts	12	11▲1	1W 2D 2L	-12	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (7 from 10.95 xG). 3.5 pts below expected.
5	Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 · 5 pts	11	12▼1	1W 2D 2L	-11	— Neutral 3.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Auxerre Ligue 1 · 6 pts	10	9▲1	2W 0D 3L	-7	— Neutral 0.0 points above expected.
7	Marseille Ligue 1 · 3 pts	17	17	1W 0D 4L	-5	— Neutral 3.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Nice Ligue 1 · 5 pts	14	14	1W 2D 2L	-4	— Neutral 0.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Paris FC Ligue 1 · 11 pts	2	2	3W 2D 0L	-1	— Neutral 0.9 points above expected.
10	PAR Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 · 8 pts	6	6	2W 2D 1L	+1	— Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	LE Le Mans Ligue 1 · 6 pts	9	10▼1	1W 3D 1L	+1	— Neutral 0.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
12	Lyon Ligue 1 · 11 pts	3	3	3W 2D 0L	+5	— Neutral 2.3 points above expected.
13	Angers Ligue 1 · 7 pts	7	7	2W 1D 2L	+6	— Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
14	Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 7 pts	8	8	2W 1D 2L	+6	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.6 extra pts.
15	Lorient Ligue 1 · 5 pts	13	16▼3	1W 2D 2L	+8	— Neutral 1.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
↑ Lucky
16	Rennes Ligue 1 · 10 pts	5	4▲1	3W 1D 1L	+18	↑ Lucky 4.4 points above expected.
17	Monaco Ligue 1 · 13 pts	1	1	4W 1D 0L	+20	↑ Lucky 6.0 points above expected.
18	Lille Ligue 1 · 10 pts	4	5▼1	3W 1D 1L	+23	↑ Lucky 3.7 points above expected.