What is the Ligue 1 CLS?

The Ligue 1 CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which French league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Ligue 1 team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Ligue 1 CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

Ligue 1 is the most tactically compact of the top 5 leagues, which makes the margins between luck and skill even tighter. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using the same 7-signal model as the other football leagues: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck above or below expected conversion (18%), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline (cards variance), injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. In a league where PSG's resource advantage compresses the table, the CLS reveals which mid-table teams are actually performing at European level and which relegation candidates are just running hot.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Metz Ligue 1 · 15 pts	18	16▲2	3W 6D 21L	-59	☠ Cursed Scored 4 fewer than xG (27 from 30.54 xG). 12.8 pts below expected.
2	Auxerre Ligue 1 · 25 pts	16	14▲2	5W 10D 15L	-47	☠ Cursed Scored 7 fewer than xG (25 from 31.79 xG). 11.1 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Nice Ligue 1 · 29 pts	15	11▲4	7W 8D 15L	-39	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (34 from 38.07 xG). 4.6 pts below expected.
4	Nantes Ligue 1 · 20 pts	17	18▼1	4W 8D 17L	-23	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (25 from 28.69 xG). 10.8 pts below expected.
5	Le Havre Ligue 1 · 30 pts	14	15▼1	6W 12D 12L	-20	↓ Unlucky Scored 9 fewer than xG (25 from 33.9 xG). 5.8 pts below expected.
— Neutral
6	Monaco Ligue 1 · 50 pts	7	4▲3	15W 5D 10L	-13	— Neutral 4.1 points above expected.
7	Lille Ligue 1 · 54 pts	3	2▲1	16W 6D 8L	-8	— Neutral 4.5 points above expected.
8	Toulouse Ligue 1 · 37 pts	11	10▲1	10W 7D 13L	-5	— Neutral 3.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 43 pts	8	8	12W 7D 10L	+2	— Neutral 0.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 · 37 pts	12	13▼1	10W 7D 12L	+4	— Neutral 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Paris FC Ligue 1 · 38 pts	10	12▼2	9W 11D 10L	+8	— Neutral 2.7 points above expected.
12	Lorient Ligue 1 · 41 pts	9	9	10W 11D 9L	+12	— Neutral 1.4 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
13	Marseille Ligue 1 · 52 pts	6	5▲1	16W 4D 10L	+16	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.5 extra pts.
14	PAR Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 · 63 pts	1	1	20W 3D 5L	+16	↑ Lucky 4.0 points above expected.
15	Angers Ligue 1 · 34 pts	13	17▼4	9W 7D 14L	+36	↑ Lucky 3.9 points above expected.
16	Rennes Ligue 1 · 53 pts	5	7▼2	15W 8D 7L	+40	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.2 extra pts.
17	Lens Ligue 1 · 62 pts	2	3▼1	20W 2D 7L	+40	↑ Lucky 11.1 points above expected.
✦ Blessed
18	Lyon Ligue 1 · 54 pts	4	6▼2	16W 6D 8L	+42	✦ Blessed 10.4 points above expected.