What is the Ligue 1 CLS?

The Ligue 1 CLS uses expected goals (xG) to measure which French league teams have more or fewer points than their performance warrants.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Ligue 1 team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by bad luck this season.

⚽ Ligue 1 CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Ligue 1 is the most tactically compact of the top 5 leagues, which makes the margins between luck and skill even tighter. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 18 teams using the same 7-signal model as the other football leagues: xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%), finishing luck above or below expected conversion (18%), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline (cards variance), injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. In a league where PSG's resource advantage compresses the table, the CLS reveals which mid-table teams are actually performing at European level and which relegation candidates are just running hot.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Metz Ligue 1 · 17 pts	18	18	3W 8D 23L	-69	☠ Cursed 14.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	Nantes Ligue 1 · 23 pts	17	16▲1	5W 8D 20L	-54	☠ Cursed Scored 7 fewer than xG (29 from 36.42 xG). 14.3 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Nice Ligue 1 · 36 pts	13	13	8W 12D 16L	-31	↓ Unlucky 5.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	Le Havre Ligue 1 · 35 pts	15	14▲1	7W 14D 13L	-20	↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (32 from 38.42 xG). 5.3 pts below expected.
5	Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 · 39 pts	12	12	10W 9D 15L	-18	↓ Unlucky 5.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Auxerre Ligue 1 · 34 pts	16	15▲1	8W 10D 16L	-18	↓ Unlucky 5.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Lille Ligue 1 · 61 pts	3	2▲1	18W 7D 9L	-18	↓ Unlucky 3.7 points above expected.
— Neutral
8	RED RED Star FC 93 Ligue 1 · 0 pts	21	20▲1	undefinedW 0D 1L	-11	— Neutral 1.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Monaco Ligue 1 · 54 pts	7	5▲2	16W 6D 12L	-9	— Neutral 3.7 points above expected.
10	Toulouse Ligue 1 · 44 pts	10	9▲1	12W 8D 13L	-5	— Neutral 1.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Paris FC Ligue 1 · 44 pts	11	11	11W 11D 12L	+4	— Neutral 2.3 points above expected.
12	Lorient Ligue 1 · 45 pts	9	10▼1	11W 12D 11L	+7	— Neutral 0.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
13	Marseille Ligue 1 · 59 pts	5	4▲1	18W 5D 11L	+13	— Neutral 4.1 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
14	Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 53 pts	8	8	15W 8D 11L	+20	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.1 extra pts.
15	Angers Ligue 1 · 36 pts	14	17▼3	9W 9D 16L	+21	↑ Lucky 2.9 points above expected.
16	ROD Rodez Ligue 1 · 3 pts	19	19	1W 0D 0L	+23	↑ Lucky 2.0 points above expected.
17	SAI Saint Etienne Ligue 1 · 1 pts	20	21▼1	undefinedW 1D 1L	+27	↑ Lucky 1.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
18	Lyon Ligue 1 · 60 pts	4	6▼2	18W 6D 10L	+28	↑ Lucky 8.2 points above expected.
19	PAR Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 · 76 pts	1	1	24W 4D 6L	+29	↑ Lucky 6.7 points above expected.
20	Lens Ligue 1 · 70 pts	2	3▼1	22W 4D 8L	+33	↑ Lucky 10.3 points above expected.
✦ Blessed
21	Rennes Ligue 1 · 59 pts	6	7▼1	17W 8D 9L	+48	✦ Blessed Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 11.0 extra pts.