What is the Serie A CLS?

The Serie A CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Italian league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Serie A team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ Serie A CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Serie A's defensive tradition means small margins decide most matches, and small margins are where luck lives. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 20 teams through 7 signals, anchored by xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%) and finishing luck (18%). Italian football's tactical depth means shot quality matters more than shot volume: a team creating fewer but higher-quality chances can still dominate xG. The model captures this through the defensive luck and shot domination signals. From Napoli and Inter's title race to the relegation playoff, the CLS shows which results are earned and which are borrowed.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Pisa Serie A · 18 pts	20	19▲1	2W 12D 23L	-86	☠ Cursed Scored 13 fewer than xG (25 from 38.23 xG). 22.2 pts below expected.
2	Hellas Verona Serie A · 21 pts	19	20▼1	3W 12D 22L	-61	☠ Cursed Scored 10 fewer than xG (25 from 34.81 xG). 21.8 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Fiorentina Serie A · 42 pts	13	11▲2	9W 15D 14L	-30	↓ Unlucky Scored 12 fewer than xG (41 from 52.99 xG). 11.4 pts below expected.
4	Torino Serie A · 44 pts	12	10▲2	12W 8D 17L	-26	↓ Unlucky 2.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Lazio Serie A · 51 pts	9	8▲1	13W 12D 12L	-20	↓ Unlucky 5.4 points above expected.
— Neutral
6	Cremonese Serie A · 34 pts	18	18	8W 10D 19L	-12	— Neutral 4.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Lecce Serie A · 35 pts	17	17	9W 8D 20L	-8	— Neutral 0.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Cagliari Serie A · 40 pts	16	14▲2	10W 10D 17L	-6	— Neutral 1.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Juventus Serie A · 68 pts	5	2▲3	19W 11D 7L	+3	— Neutral Scored 8 fewer than xG (59 from 66.99 xG). 2.3 pts below expected.
10	Atalanta Serie A · 59 pts	7	7	15W 14D 9L	+4	— Neutral Scored 7 fewer than xG (51 from 58.06 xG). 3.4 pts below expected.
11	Parma Serie A · 42 pts	14	15▼1	10W 12D 15L	+5	— Neutral 5.4 points above expected.
12	Genoa Serie A · 41 pts	15	16▼1	10W 11D 16L	+8	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (41 from 44.75 xG). 7.4 pts below expected.
13	Sassuolo Serie A · 49 pts	11	12▼1	14W 7D 16L	+14	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 5.2 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
14	Udinese Serie A · 50 pts	10	13▼3	14W 8D 15L	+22	↑ Lucky 4.3 points above expected.
15	Como Serie A · 68 pts	6	6	19W 11D 7L	+25	↑ Lucky 3.3 points above expected.
16	Bologna Serie A · 55 pts	8	9▼1	16W 7D 14L	+25	↑ Lucky 4.6 points above expected.
17	AC Milan Serie A · 70 pts	3	4▼1	20W 10D 7L	+26	↑ Lucky 8.7 points above expected.
18	AS Roma Serie A · 70 pts	4	5▼1	22W 4D 11L	+28	↑ Lucky Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.9 extra pts.
19	Napoli Serie A · 73 pts	2	3▼1	22W 7D 8L	+36	↑ Lucky Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 15.3 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
20	Inter Serie A · 86 pts	1	1	27W 5D 5L	+54	✦ Blessed Scored 16 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 13.6 extra pts.