What is the Serie A CLS?

The Serie A CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Italian league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Serie A team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ Serie A CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Serie A's defensive tradition means small margins decide most matches, and small margins are where luck lives. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 20 teams through 7 signals, anchored by xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%) and finishing luck (18%). Italian football's tactical depth means shot quality matters more than shot volume: a team creating fewer but higher-quality chances can still dominate xG. The model captures this through the defensive luck and shot domination signals. From Napoli and Inter's title race to the relegation playoff, the CLS shows which results are earned and which are borrowed.

Season

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How is this calculated?

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	VEN Venezia Serie A · 0 pts	20	20	0W 0D 5L	-22	↓ Unlucky 4.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	MON Monza Serie A · 4 pts	13	13	1W 1D 3L	-18	↓ Unlucky 5.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
3	Bologna Serie A · 2 pts	18	18	0W 2D 3L	-13	— Neutral 5.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	Genoa Serie A · 1 pts	19	19	0W 1D 4L	-12	— Neutral 4.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Fiorentina Serie A · 4 pts	14	14	1W 1D 3L	-12	— Neutral 4.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Udinese Serie A · 4 pts	15	15	1W 1D 3L	-12	— Neutral 1.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Sassuolo Serie A · 7 pts	9	9	2W 1D 2L	-7	— Neutral 1.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Juventus Serie A · 10 pts	6	5▲1	3W 1D 1L	-6	— Neutral 0.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Torino Serie A · 4 pts	16	16	1W 1D 3L	-3	— Neutral 0.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	Napoli Serie A · 7 pts	10	10	2W 1D 2L	+2	— Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Inter Serie A · 13 pts	2	1▲1	4W 1D 0L	+3	— Neutral 2.6 points above expected.
12	Parma Serie A · 4 pts	17	17	1W 1D 3L	+5	— Neutral 0.1 points above expected.
13	Atalanta Serie A · 6 pts	11	11	2W 0D 3L	+5	— Neutral 2.3 points above expected.
14	Lecce Serie A · 6 pts	12	12	2W 0D 3L	+7	— Neutral 2.7 points above expected.
15	AS Roma Serie A · 13 pts	1	2▼1	4W 1D 0L	+9	— Neutral 2.3 points above expected.
16	AC Milan Serie A · 11 pts	5	6▼1	3W 2D 0L	+10	— Neutral 3.0 points above expected.
17	Como Serie A · 10 pts	7	7	3W 1D 1L	+11	— Neutral 2.1 points above expected.
18	Lazio Serie A · 13 pts	3	3	4W 1D 0L	+14	— Neutral 5.0 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
19	Cagliari Serie A · 12 pts	4	4	4W 0D 1L	+16	↑ Lucky 6.3 points above expected.
20	FRO Frosinone Serie A · 10 pts	8	8	3W 1D 1L	+23	↑ Lucky 4.8 points above expected.