What is the Serie A CLS?

The Serie A CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Italian league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Serie A team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ Serie A CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

Serie A's defensive tradition means small margins decide most matches, and small margins are where luck lives. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 20 teams through 7 signals, anchored by xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%) and finishing luck (18%). Italian football's tactical depth means shot quality matters more than shot volume: a team creating fewer but higher-quality chances can still dominate xG. The model captures this through the defensive luck and shot domination signals. From Napoli and Inter's title race to the relegation playoff, the CLS shows which results are earned and which are borrowed.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Pisa Serie A · 18 pts	20	18▲2	2W 12D 19L	-75	☠ Cursed Scored 9 fewer than xG (24 from 33.47 xG). 17.1 pts below expected.
2	Hellas Verona Serie A · 18 pts	19	20▼1	3W 9D 21L	-61	☠ Cursed Scored 9 fewer than xG (23 from 31.93 xG). 21.5 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Fiorentina Serie A · 36 pts	15	11▲4	8W 12D 13L	-33	↓ Unlucky Scored 11 fewer than xG (38 from 48.63 xG). 12.1 pts below expected.
4	Lecce Serie A · 28 pts	18	16▲2	7W 7D 19L	-31	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (22 from 26.49 xG). 3.9 pts below expected.
5	Cremonese Serie A · 28 pts	17	19▼2	6W 10D 17L	-18	↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (26 from 31.7 xG). 5.8 pts below expected.
6	Torino Serie A · 40 pts	12	10▲2	11W 7D 15L	-16	↓ Unlucky 0.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
7	Lazio Serie A · 47 pts	9	8▲1	12W 11D 10L	-8	— Neutral 6.4 points above expected.
8	Cagliari Serie A · 33 pts	16	17▼1	8W 9D 16L	-3	— Neutral 2.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Atalanta Serie A · 54 pts	7	7	14W 12D 7L	+4	— Neutral Scored 6 fewer than xG (45 from 51.2 xG). 0.7 pts below expected.
10	Parma Serie A · 39 pts	14	14	9W 12D 12L	+5	— Neutral 4.6 points above expected.
11	Juventus Serie A · 63 pts	4	2▲2	18W 9D 6L	+6	— Neutral 1.2 points above expected.
12	Genoa Serie A · 39 pts	13	15▼2	10W 9D 14L	+12	— Neutral 6.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
↑ Lucky
13	Udinese Serie A · 43 pts	11	13▼2	12W 7D 14L	+20	↑ Lucky 3.7 points above expected.
14	AS Roma Serie A · 58 pts	6	5▲1	18W 4D 11L	+21	↑ Lucky 7.2 points above expected.
15	Como Serie A · 58 pts	5	6▼1	16W 10D 7L	+22	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.0 extra pts.
16	Bologna Serie A · 48 pts	8	9▼1	14W 6D 13L	+22	↑ Lucky 1.8 points above expected.
17	Napoli Serie A · 66 pts	3	3	20W 6D 7L	+23	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 14.3 extra pts.
18	Sassuolo Serie A · 45 pts	10	12▼2	13W 6D 14L	+24	↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 7.3 extra pts.
19	AC Milan Serie A · 66 pts	2	4▼2	19W 9D 5L	+34	↑ Lucky 10.0 points above expected.
✦ Blessed
20	Inter Serie A · 78 pts	1	1	25W 3D 5L	+51	✦ Blessed Scored 15 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 13.1 extra pts.