What is the Serie A CLS?

The Serie A CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Italian league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Serie A team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ Serie A CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Serie A's defensive tradition means small margins decide most matches, and small margins are where luck lives. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) tracks all 20 teams through 7 signals, anchored by xPTS delta from Poisson match simulation (25%) and finishing luck (18%). Italian football's tactical depth means shot quality matters more than shot volume: a team creating fewer but higher-quality chances can still dominate xG. The model captures this through the defensive luck and shot domination signals. From Napoli and Inter's title race to the relegation playoff, the CLS shows which results are earned and which are borrowed.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Pisa Serie A · 18 pts	20	19▲1	2W 12D 24L	-89	☠ Cursed Scored 14 fewer than xG (26 from 39.79 xG). 23.9 pts below expected.
2	Hellas Verona Serie A · 21 pts	19	20▼1	3W 12D 23L	-65	☠ Cursed Scored 11 fewer than xG (25 from 35.65 xG). 22.1 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Fiorentina Serie A · 42 pts	15	11▲4	9W 15D 14L	-29	↓ Unlucky Scored 12 fewer than xG (41 from 53.03 xG). 11.5 pts below expected.
4	Torino Serie A · 45 pts	12	10▲2	12W 9D 17L	-25	↓ Unlucky 1.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Cremonese Serie A · 34 pts	18	18	8W 10D 20L	-19	↓ Unlucky 5.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
6	Lazio Serie A · 54 pts	9	8▲1	14W 12D 12L	-12	— Neutral 7.3 points above expected.
7	Lecce Serie A · 38 pts	17	17	10W 8D 20L	-6	— Neutral 0.8 points above expected.
8	Cagliari Serie A · 43 pts	14	14	11W 10D 17L	-5	— Neutral 0.1 points above expected.
9	Juventus Serie A · 69 pts	6	2▲4	19W 12D 7L	+1	— Neutral Scored 8 fewer than xG (61 from 68.91 xG). 3.4 pts below expected.
10	Genoa Serie A · 41 pts	16	16	10W 11D 17L	+4	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (41 from 45.43 xG). 8.2 pts below expected.
11	Atalanta Serie A · 59 pts	7	7	15W 14D 9L	+6	— Neutral Scored 7 fewer than xG (51 from 57.86 xG). 3.2 pts below expected.
12	Parma Serie A · 45 pts	13	15▼2	11W 12D 15L	+8	— Neutral 6.9 points above expected.
13	Sassuolo Serie A · 49 pts	11	12▼1	14W 7D 17L	+11	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.0 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
14	Udinese Serie A · 50 pts	10	13▼3	14W 8D 16L	+19	↑ Lucky 3.9 points above expected.
15	AC Milan Serie A · 70 pts	5	5	20W 10D 8L	+23	↑ Lucky 7.8 points above expected.
16	Bologna Serie A · 56 pts	8	9▼1	16W 8D 14L	+27	↑ Lucky Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.5 extra pts.
17	AS Roma Serie A · 73 pts	3	4▼1	23W 4D 11L	+30	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 10.3 extra pts.
18	Como Serie A · 71 pts	4	6▼2	20W 11D 7L	+31	↑ Lucky 4.1 points above expected.
19	Napoli Serie A · 76 pts	2	3▼1	23W 7D 8L	+37	↑ Lucky Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 15.9 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
20	Inter Serie A · 87 pts	1	1	27W 6D 5L	+51	✦ Blessed Scored 17 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 12.9 extra pts.