What is the Serie A Luck Index?

The Serie A Luck Index uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Italian league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative Luck Index, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Serie A team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ Serie A Luck Index Rankings

Data last updated Apr 8, 2026, 9:59 AM UTC

The Serie A Luck Index ranks all 20 Italian league teams using expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS). From Napoli and Inter to the relegation battle, the Luck Index reveals which Serie A teams deserve their position and which are being robbed.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	Luck Index	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Pisa Serie A · 18 pts	20	16▲4	2W 12D 17L	-78	☠ Cursed Scored 8 fewer than xG (23 from 31.08 xG). 14.9 pts below expected.
2	Hellas Verona Serie A · 18 pts	19	13▲6	3W 9D 19L	-58	☠ Cursed Scored 8 fewer than xG (22 from 29.74 xG). 18.8 pts below expected.
3	Fiorentina Serie A · 32 pts	15	8▲7	7W 11D 13L	-44	☠ Cursed Scored 11 fewer than xG (36 from 46.88 xG). 14.0 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
4	Torino Serie A · 36 pts	12	11▲1	10W 6D 15L	-31	↓ Unlucky 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Lecce Serie A · 27 pts	18	20▼2	7W 6D 18L	-29	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (21 from 24.8 xG). 3.2 pts below expected.
6	Cremonese Serie A · 27 pts	17	19▼2	6W 9D 16L	-20	↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (26 from 30.78 xG). 4.5 pts below expected.
— Neutral
7	Cagliari Serie A · 30 pts	16	17▼1	7W 9D 15L	-2	— Neutral 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Juventus Serie A · 57 pts	5	2▲3	16W 9D 6L	-2	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (54 from 57.65 xG). 2.3 pts below expected.
9	Parma Serie A · 35 pts	13	18▼5	8W 11D 12L	+2	— Neutral 2.5 points above expected.
10	Lazio Serie A · 44 pts	9	14▼5	11W 11D 9L	+2	— Neutral 7.8 points above expected.
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11	Genoa Serie A · 33 pts	14	10▲4	8W 9D 14L	+3	— Neutral 8.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
12	Atalanta Serie A · 53 pts	7	5▲2	14W 11D 6L	+14	— Neutral 1.5 points above expected.
13	AS Roma Serie A · 54 pts	6	7▼1	17W 3D 11L	+15	— Neutral 6.5 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
14	Udinese Serie A · 40 pts	11	12▼1	11W 7D 13L	+17	↑ Lucky 2.9 points above expected.
15	Bologna Serie A · 45 pts	8	9▼1	13W 6D 12L	+31	↑ Lucky 2.2 points above expected.
16	Napoli Serie A · 65 pts	2	6▼4	20W 5D 6L	+33	↑ Lucky Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 15.8 extra pts.
17	Como Serie A · 58 pts	4	3▲1	16W 10D 5L	+34	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.3 extra pts.
18	Sassuolo Serie A · 42 pts	10	15▼5	12W 6D 13L	+34	↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 7.7 extra pts.
19	AC Milan Serie A · 63 pts	3	4▼1	18W 9D 4L	+35	↑ Lucky 10.3 points above expected.
✦ Blessed
20	Inter Serie A · 72 pts	1	1	23W 3D 5L	+45	✦ Blessed Scored 11 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.9 extra pts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Luck Index Evolution

How each team's Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).