What is the Premier League CLS?

The CLS measures the gap between what a team deserves based on expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS) vs what they actually have. A negative score means the team is unlucky - they deserve more points.

What is xG (expected goals)?

Expected Goals assigns a probability to every shot based on location, angle, and game situation. A penalty = ~0.76 xG. A 30-yard shot = ~0.03 xG. Over a season, the gap between xG and actual goals reveals luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Premier League team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above - the team at the top of the 'Most Unlucky' sort has the worst CLS in the league. This changes after every matchweek.

How often is the CLS updated?

Daily during the Premier League season, using data from match-by-match xG simulations.

⚽ Premier League CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Season

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

This is the Premier League xG table you won't find on FBref. Every Premier League season, some teams finish above where their xG stats say they should be, and some finish below. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) quantifies that gap. We simulate every match thousands of times using expected goals (xG) to derive expected points (xPTS), then compare to the actual Premier League standings. The model tracks 7 signals per team: xPTS delta (25%), finishing luck (are they converting chances above or below expected rate?), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. A team that dominates xG but keeps losing tight games will show up as cursed. A team that keeps nicking 1-0 wins from 0.4 xG will show up as blessed. Updated daily with full match-level football stats from API-Football.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Proj. Finish	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Wolves Premier League · 19 pts	20	19▲1	3W 10D 24L	-57	20	☠ Cursed Opponents scoring 9 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
2	Crystal Palace Premier League · 45 pts	15	7▲8	11W 12D 14L	-52	15	☠ Cursed Only 40 goals from 56.91 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 70% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
3	Chelsea Premier League · 52 pts	8	3▲5	14W 10D 13L	-45	7 ↑1	☠ Cursed Only 57 goals from 65.42 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 87% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
↓ Unlucky
4	Tottenham Premier League · 38 pts	17	16▲1	9W 11D 17L	-29	17	↓ Unlucky 318 player-games lost to injury - the worst in the league. Hard to win when your squad is in the treatment room.
5	West Ham Premier League · 36 pts	18	18	9W 9D 19L	-20	18	↓ Unlucky Opponents scoring 7 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
6	Burnley Premier League · 21 pts	19	20▼1	4W 9D 24L	-20	19	↓ Unlucky 10 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
7	Newcastle Premier League · 49 pts	11	9▲2	14W 7D 16L	-18	11	↓ Unlucky 12 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
— Neutral
8	Leeds Premier League · 47 pts	14	12▲2	11W 14D 12L	-13	14	— Neutral 14 draws in 37 matches (38%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
9	Bournemouth Premier League · 56 pts	6	6	13W 17D 7L	-9	6	— Neutral 17 draws in 37 matches (46%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
10	Liverpool Premier League · 59 pts	5	5	17W 8D 12L	-8	5	— Neutral 9 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
11	Brighton Premier League · 53 pts	7	8▼1	14W 11D 12L	-1	8 ↓1	— Neutral 8 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
12	Brentford Premier League · 52 pts	9	11▼2	14W 10D 13L	+8	9	— Neutral Only 54 goals from 58.31 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 93% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
13	Nottingham Forest Premier League · 43 pts	16	17▼1	11W 10D 16L	+9	16	— Neutral Conceding 5 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
14	Everton Premier League · 49 pts	13	13	13W 10D 14L	+13	13	— Neutral Conceding 6 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
↑ Lucky
15	Fulham Premier League · 49 pts	12	15▼3	14W 7D 16L	+22	12	↑ Lucky 9 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
16	Sunderland Premier League · 51 pts	10	14▼4	13W 12D 12L	+32	10	↑ Lucky Conceding 6 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
17	Manchester United Premier League · 68 pts	3	4▼1	19W 11D 7L	+37	3	↑ Lucky 9.5 points above expected. Playing with house money.
18	Arsenal Premier League · 82 pts	1	1	25W 7D 5L	+37	1	↑ Lucky 69 goals from 62.61 xG - converting at 110%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
✦ Blessed
19	Aston Villa Premier League · 62 pts	4	10▼6	18W 8D 11L	+56	4	✦ Blessed 54 goals from 46.02 xG - converting at 117%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
20	Manchester City Premier League · 78 pts	2	2	23W 9D 5L	+58	2	✦ Blessed Conceding 9 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.