⚽ Premier League Luck Index Rankings

The Premier League Luck Index ranks all 20 EPL teams by how much luck has influenced their 2025-26 season. Using expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS) from match-by-match simulations, we measure the gap between what each team deserves and what they actually have. Teams scoring below their xG are unlucky. Teams with more points than their xPTS are lucky. Updated after every matchweek.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	Luck Index	Trend	Highlight	Share
☠ Cursed
1	Wolves Premier League · 17 pts	20	19▲1	3W 8D 20L	-55		☠ Cursed Hemorrhaging points they deserve, and all the shots, none of the goals. One of the most cursed teams in sports right now.
2	Crystal Palace Premier League · 39 pts	14	10▲4	10W 9D 11L	-40		☠ Cursed Deeply unlucky season. Can't finish their dinner while results betraying them. Regression is overdue.
↓ Unlucky
3	Leeds Premier League · 33 pts	15	11▲4	7W 12D 12L	-35		↓ Unlucky On the wrong side of the margins. Hemorrhaging points they deserve.
4	Chelsea Premier League · 48 pts	6	3▲3	13W 9D 9L	-29		↓ Unlucky Tough luck this season. Can't finish their dinner compounded by key players stuck in the medical bay.
5	West Ham Premier League · 29 pts	18	17▲1	7W 8D 16L	-23		↓ Unlucky Tough luck this season. Results betraying them compounded by conceding soft goals left and right.
6	Tottenham Premier League · 30 pts	17	16▲1	7W 9D 15L	-23		↓ Unlucky The underlying numbers say they deserve more. Main issue: the physio room is packed.
7	Nottingham Forest Premier League · 32 pts	16	15▲1	8W 8D 15L	-22		↓ Unlucky Wasting golden chances and results betraying them. The turnaround should come.
8	Bournemouth Premier League · 42 pts	12	6▲6	9W 15D 7L	-22		↓ Unlucky Results betraying them. Wasting golden chances isn't helping either. Better days ahead.
9	Liverpool Premier League · 49 pts	5	4▲1	14W 7D 10L	-20		↓ Unlucky The underlying numbers say they deserve more. Main issue: key players stuck in the medical bay.
10	Brighton Premier League · 43 pts	10	9▲1	11W 10D 10L	-15		↓ Unlucky On the wrong side of the margins. Wasting golden chances, and facing everyone at their peak.
728 x 90 — Mid-TableADVERTISEMENT
— Neutral
11	Newcastle Premier League · 42 pts	13	7▲6	12W 6D 13L	-9		— Neutral Marginal bad luck. Feasting on weak opponents is the biggest factor, though it's minor.
12	Burnley Premier League · 20 pts	19	20▼1	4W 8D 19L	-6		— Neutral Slightly hard done by. Converting everything they touch, but nothing catastrophic.
↑ Lucky
13	Brentford Premier League · 46 pts	7	8▼1	13W 7D 11L	+18		↑ Lucky Feasting on weak opponents. Riding a wave that typically doesn't last.
14	Manchester United Premier League · 55 pts	3	5▼2	15W 10D 6L	+28		↑ Lucky Lucky breaks adding up. Results flattering them is the main driver.
15	Everton Premier League · 46 pts	8	14▼6	13W 7D 11L	+31		↑ Lucky Outperforming the underlying numbers. Banking points they haven't earned. Opponents can't score on them too. Sustainability? Questionable.
16	Sunderland Premier League · 43 pts	11	18▼7	11W 10D 10L	+33		↑ Lucky Fortune is on their side. Banking points they haven't earned, and opponents can't score on them. History says this fades.
17	Fulham Premier League · 44 pts	9	12▼3	13W 5D 13L	+38		↑ Lucky Lucky breaks adding up. Feasting on weak opponents is the main driver, plus fully fit and rolling.
18	Arsenal Premier League · 70 pts	1	1	21W 7D 3L	+40		↑ Lucky Banking points they haven't earned and converting everything they touch. Riding a wave that typically doesn't last.
✦ Blessed
19	Manchester City Premier League · 61 pts	2	2	18W 7D 5L	+49		✦ Blessed Unsustainably fortunate. Banking points they haven't earned while feasting on weak opponents. Enjoy it while it lasts.
20	Aston Villa Premier League · 54 pts	4	13▼9	16W 6D 9L	+61		✦ Blessed Banking points they haven't earned, keeper pulling off miracles - but gravity always wins eventually.