What is the Premier League CLS?

The CLS measures the gap between what a team deserves based on expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS) vs what they actually have. A negative score means the team is unlucky - they deserve more points.

What is xG (expected goals)?

Expected Goals assigns a probability to every shot based on location, angle, and game situation. A penalty = ~0.76 xG. A 30-yard shot = ~0.03 xG. Over a season, the gap between xG and actual goals reveals luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Premier League team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above - the team at the top of the 'Most Unlucky' sort has the worst CLS in the league. This changes after every matchweek.

How often is the CLS updated?

Daily during the Premier League season, using data from match-by-match xG simulations.

⚽ Premier League CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

Every Premier League season, some teams finish above where their performances say they should be, and some finish below. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) quantifies that gap. We simulate every match thousands of times using expected goals (xG) to derive expected points (xPTS), then compare to the actual table. The model tracks 7 signals per team: xPTS delta (the anchor at 25%), finishing luck (are they converting chances above or below expected rate?), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. A team that dominates xG but keeps losing tight games will show up as cursed. A team that keeps nicking 1-0 wins from 0.4 xG will show up as blessed. Updated after every matchweek with full match-level data from API-Football.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Wolves Premier League · 17 pts	20	19▲1	3W 8D 22L	-53	☠ Cursed Opponents scoring 8 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
2	Chelsea Premier League · 48 pts	6	3▲3	13W 9D 11L	-43	☠ Cursed Only 53 goals from 61.99 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 85% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
↓ Unlucky
3	Crystal Palace Premier League · 43 pts	13	7▲6	11W 10D 11L	-32	↓ Unlucky Only 35 goals from 48.8 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 72% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
4	Leeds Premier League · 39 pts	15	11▲4	9W 12D 12L	-29	↓ Unlucky 12 draws in 33 matches (36%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
5	Tottenham Premier League · 31 pts	18	17▲1	7W 10D 16L	-27	↓ Unlucky 278 player-games lost to injury - the worst in the league. Hard to win when your squad is in the treatment room.
6	West Ham Premier League · 33 pts	17	18▼1	8W 9D 16L	-17	↓ Unlucky Opponents scoring 5 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
7	Burnley Premier League · 20 pts	19	20▼1	4W 8D 21L	-16	↓ Unlucky 34 goals from 28.4 xG - converting at 120%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
— Neutral
8	Bournemouth Premier League · 48 pts	8	6▲2	11W 15D 7L	-13	— Neutral 15 draws in 33 matches (45%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
9	Newcastle Premier League · 42 pts	14	12▲2	12W 6D 15L	-12	— Neutral 11 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
10	Liverpool Premier League · 55 pts	5	2▲3	16W 7D 10L	-11	— Neutral 8 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
11	Nottingham Forest Premier League · 36 pts	16	16	9W 9D 15L	-9	— Neutral 3.9 points below where the data says they should be.
12	Brighton Premier League · 47 pts	9	8▲1	12W 11D 10L	-4	— Neutral 7 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
13	Brentford Premier League · 48 pts	7	10▼3	13W 9D 11L	+9	— Neutral Only 48 goals from 52.79 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 91% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
↑ Lucky
14	Arsenal Premier League · 70 pts	1	1	21W 7D 5L	+23	↑ Lucky 63 goals from 56.61 xG - converting at 111%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
15	Everton Premier League · 47 pts	10	13▼3	13W 8D 12L	+28	↑ Lucky Conceding 10 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
16	Fulham Premier League · 45 pts	12	15▼3	13W 6D 14L	+29	↑ Lucky 8 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
17	Sunderland Premier League · 46 pts	11	14▼3	12W 10D 11L	+33	↑ Lucky Conceding 9 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
18	Manchester United Premier League · 58 pts	3	5▼2	16W 10D 7L	+34	↑ Lucky 6.3 points above expected. Playing with house money.
✦ Blessed
19	Manchester City Premier League · 67 pts	2	4▼2	20W 7D 5L	+52	✦ Blessed 65 goals from 58.37 xG - converting at 111%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
20	Aston Villa Premier League · 58 pts	4	9▼5	17W 7D 9L	+58	✦ Blessed Conceding 6 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.