What is the Premier League CLS?

The CLS measures the gap between what a team deserves based on expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS) vs what they actually have. A negative score means the team is unlucky - they deserve more points.

What is xG (expected goals)?

Expected Goals assigns a probability to every shot based on location, angle, and game situation. A penalty = ~0.76 xG. A 30-yard shot = ~0.03 xG. Over a season, the gap between xG and actual goals reveals luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Premier League team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above - the team at the top of the 'Most Unlucky' sort has the worst CLS in the league. This changes after every matchweek.

How often is the CLS updated?

Daily during the Premier League season, using data from match-by-match xG simulations.

⚽ Premier League CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

This is the Premier League xG table you won't find on FBref. Every Premier League season, some teams finish above where their xG stats say they should be, and some finish below. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) quantifies that gap. We simulate every match thousands of times using expected goals (xG) to derive expected points (xPTS), then compare to the actual Premier League standings. The model tracks 7 signals per team: xPTS delta (25%), finishing luck (are they converting chances above or below expected rate?), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. A team that dominates xG but keeps losing tight games will show up as cursed. A team that keeps nicking 1-0 wins from 0.4 xG will show up as blessed. Updated daily with full match-level football stats from API-Football.

Season

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How is this calculated?

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Proj. Finish	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Sunderland Premier League · 4 pts	14	13▲1	1W 1D 3L	-17	14	↓ Unlucky Opponents scoring 7 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
2	Manchester United Premier League · 5 pts	12	11▲1	1W 2D 2L	-16	11 ↑1	↓ Unlucky Outshooting opponents 68-32 in shot share but the results don't show it. Effort without reward.
3	COV Coventry Premier League · 3 pts	17	16▲1	1W 0D 4L	-16	16 ↑1	↓ Unlucky Opponents scoring 7 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
— Neutral
4	Bournemouth Premier League · 3 pts	18	18	0W 3D 2L	-13	17 ↑1	— Neutral 3 draws in 5 matches (60%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
5	Tottenham Premier League · 2 pts	19	19	0W 2D 3L	-12	19	— Neutral 2 draws in 5 matches (40%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
6	Fulham Premier League · 2 pts	20	20	0W 2D 3L	-8	20	— Neutral 2 draws in 5 matches (40%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
7	Crystal Palace Premier League · 4 pts	15	15	1W 1D 3L	-8	15	— Neutral Opponents scoring 8 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
8	Chelsea Premier League · 7 pts	10	10	2W 1D 2L	-5	8 ↑2	— Neutral Opponents scoring 7 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
9	Aston Villa Premier League · 4 pts	16	17▼1	1W 1D 3L	-2	18 ↓2	— Neutral Only 37% shot share but sitting above expected. Doing more with less - or just getting lucky.
10	HUL Hull City Premier League · 8 pts	8	6▲2	2W 2D 1L	0	9 ↓1	— Neutral 6 goals from 1.73 xG - converting at 347%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
11	Nottingham Forest Premier League · 5 pts	13	14▼1	1W 2D 2L	+1	13	— Neutral Outshooting opponents 61-39 in shot share but the results don't show it. Effort without reward.
12	Ipswich Premier League · 6 pts	11	12▼1	2W 0D 3L	+1	12 ↓1	— Neutral Opponents scoring 6 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
13	Newcastle Premier League · 8 pts	9	9	2W 2D 1L	+5	10 ↓1	— Neutral 9 goals from 2.3 xG - converting at 391%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
14	Brentford Premier League · 9 pts	4	4	2W 3D 0L	+6	4	— Neutral 10 goals from 5.54 xG - converting at 181%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
15	Arsenal Premier League · 12 pts	2	2	4W 0D 1L	+8	2	— Neutral 3.0 points above expected. Playing with house money.
16	Liverpool Premier League · 9 pts	5	5	2W 3D 0L	+9	5	— Neutral 3 draws in 5 matches (60%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
17	Brighton Premier League · 10 pts	3	3	3W 1D 1L	+11	3	— Neutral 16 goals from 5.18 xG - converting at 309%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
18	Everton Premier League · 9 pts	6	7▼1	2W 3D 0L	+15	6	— Neutral 3 draws in 5 matches (60%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
↑ Lucky
19	Leeds Premier League · 9 pts	7	8▼1	2W 3D 0L	+16	7	↑ Lucky 7 goals from 1.93 xG - converting at 363%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
20	Manchester City Premier League · 15 pts	1	1	5W 0D 0L	+28	1	↑ Lucky 13 goals from 4.46 xG - converting at 291%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.