What is the Premier League CLS?

The CLS measures the gap between what a team deserves based on expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS) vs what they actually have. A negative score means the team is unlucky - they deserve more points.

What is xG (expected goals)?

Expected Goals assigns a probability to every shot based on location, angle, and game situation. A penalty = ~0.76 xG. A 30-yard shot = ~0.03 xG. Over a season, the gap between xG and actual goals reveals luck.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which Premier League team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above - the team at the top of the 'Most Unlucky' sort has the worst CLS in the league. This changes after every matchweek.

How often is the CLS updated?

Daily during the Premier League season, using data from match-by-match xG simulations.

⚽ Premier League CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

This is the Premier League xG table you won't find on FBref. Every Premier League season, some teams finish above where their xG stats say they should be, and some finish below. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) quantifies that gap. We simulate every match thousands of times using expected goals (xG) to derive expected points (xPTS), then compare to the actual Premier League standings. The model tracks 7 signals per team: xPTS delta (25%), finishing luck (are they converting chances above or below expected rate?), defensive luck, shot volume dominance, discipline, injury burden, and opponent scheduling strength. A team that dominates xG but keeps losing tight games will show up as cursed. A team that keeps nicking 1-0 wins from 0.4 xG will show up as blessed. Updated daily with full match-level football stats from API-Football.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Proj. Finish	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Wolves Premier League · 20 pts	20	19▲1	3W 11D 24L	-56	20	☠ Cursed Only 27 goals from 35.51 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 76% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
2	Crystal Palace Premier League · 45 pts	15	7▲8	11W 12D 15L	-55	15	☠ Cursed Only 41 goals from 58.01 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 71% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
3	Chelsea Premier League · 52 pts	10	5▲5	14W 10D 14L	-45	10	☠ Cursed Only 58 goals from 66.32 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 87% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
↓ Unlucky
4	Tottenham Premier League · 41 pts	17	16▲1	10W 11D 17L	-25	17	↓ Unlucky 330 player-games lost to injury - the worst in the league. Hard to win when your squad is in the treatment room.
5	Newcastle Premier League · 49 pts	12	10▲2	14W 7D 17L	-18	12	↓ Unlucky 12 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
6	Burnley Premier League · 22 pts	19	20▼1	4W 10D 24L	-17	19	↓ Unlucky 10 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
7	Leeds Premier League · 47 pts	14	12▲2	11W 14D 13L	-16	14	↓ Unlucky 14 draws in 38 matches (37%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
8	West Ham Premier League · 39 pts	18	18	10W 9D 19L	-16	18	↓ Unlucky Opponents scoring 5 more goals than their xGA warrants. Every shot against seems to go in.
— Neutral
9	Liverpool Premier League · 60 pts	5	4▲1	17W 9D 12L	-12	5	— Neutral 9 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
10	Bournemouth Premier League · 57 pts	6	6	13W 18D 7L	-9	6	— Neutral 18 draws in 38 matches (47%). Drawing far more than average - points constantly shared.
11	Brighton Premier League · 53 pts	8	8	14W 11D 13L	-7	8	— Neutral 8 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
12	Nottingham Forest Premier League · 44 pts	16	17▼1	11W 11D 16L	+4	16	— Neutral Conceding 5 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
13	Brentford Premier League · 53 pts	9	11▼2	14W 11D 13L	+10	9	— Neutral Only 55 goals from 59.53 xG worth of chances. Converting at just 92% - one of the worst finishing rates in the league.
14	Everton Premier League · 49 pts	13	14▼1	13W 10D 15L	+10	13	— Neutral Conceding 6 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
↑ Lucky
15	Fulham Premier League · 52 pts	11	13▼2	15W 7D 16L	+24	11	↑ Lucky 9 defeats by a single goal. A different bounce in any of those and the table looks completely different.
16	Sunderland Premier League · 54 pts	7	15▼8	14W 12D 12L	+35	7	↑ Lucky Conceding 6 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
17	Arsenal Premier League · 85 pts	1	1	26W 7D 5L	+39	1	↑ Lucky 71 goals from 65.01 xG - converting at 109%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
18	Manchester United Premier League · 71 pts	3	3	20W 11D 7L	+40	3	↑ Lucky 69 goals from 64.91 xG - converting at 106%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.
✦ Blessed
19	Manchester City Premier League · 78 pts	2	2	23W 9D 6L	+56	2	✦ Blessed Conceding 8 fewer than expected. The keeper or the post has been their best player.
20	Aston Villa Premier League · 65 pts	4	9▼5	19W 8D 11L	+58	4	✦ Blessed 56 goals from 47.6 xG - converting at 118%. When you finish this well, the table flatters you.