The NHL CLS combines Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored/allowed), MoneyPuck expected goals, shootout luck, and close-game records to measure which hockey teams are lucky or unlucky.

What is Pythagorean expectation in hockey?

A formula that estimates how many games a team should win based on goals for and against: Win% = GF²/(GF²+GA²). Teams winning more than predicted are lucky.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NHL team is the most cursed?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The CLS identifies teams whose results are worse than their underlying performance.

Does shootout luck matter?

Yes. Shootouts are essentially coin flips with minimal skill correlation year-over-year. Teams with many shootout wins are benefiting from luck.

🏒 NHL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Hockey is the highest-variance major sport. Pucks bounce off posts, goalies have hot streaks, and shootouts are coin flips. The NHL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures all of it through 6 signals: Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored vs allowed, 25%), MoneyPuck xG finishing (are they scoring above their expected goals? 20%), xGA defense (15%), close-game record in one-goal games (15%), shootout net wins (15%), and overtime loss rate (10%). A team that controls play at 5-on-5 but keeps losing in the shootout will register as deeply cursed. A team riding a .940 save percentage from an average goaltender will register as blessed. The NHL is where regression hits hardest: the data says what the standings hide.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Florida Panthers NHL · 84 pts	25	11▲14	40-38-4	-63	☠ Cursed 5 shootout wins (vs 2 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
2	Vancouver Canucks NHL · 58 pts	32	32	25-49-8	-49	☠ Cursed 0.8 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
3	Utah Mammoth NHL · 92 pts	15	8▲7	43-33-6	-45	☠ Cursed 10.5 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
↓ Unlucky
4	Winnipeg Jets NHL · 82 pts	26	21▲5	35-35-12	-38	↓ Unlucky 0.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
5	New York Rangers NHL · 77 pts	29	24▲5	34-39-9	-33	↓ Unlucky 10.8 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
6	Washington Capitals NHL · 95 pts	12	7▲5	43-30-9	-33	↓ Unlucky 4.2 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
7	New Jersey Devils NHL · 87 pts	21	14▲7	42-37-3	-33	↓ Unlucky Only 3 OT losses all season. Almost never losing in extra time - unusually fortunate in coin-flip situations.
8	Ottawa Senators NHL · 99 pts	9	4▲5	44-27-11	-30	↓ Unlucky 11 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
9	Edmonton Oilers NHL · 93 pts	14	10▲4	41-30-11	-28	↓ Unlucky 11 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
10	Vegas Golden Knights NHL · 95 pts	13	9▲4	39-26-17	-26	↓ Unlucky 17 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
11	Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · 106 pts	5	3▲2	50-26-6	-18	↓ Unlucky 7.0 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
— Neutral
12	Calgary Flames NHL · 77 pts	30	29▲1	34-39-9	-10	— Neutral 2.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
13	Seattle Kraken NHL · 79 pts	27	27	34-37-11	-8	— Neutral 0.6 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
14	New York Islanders NHL · 91 pts	19	15▲4	43-34-5	-7	— Neutral 1.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
15	Toronto Maple Leafs NHL · 78 pts	28	30▼2	32-36-14	-3	— Neutral 0.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
16	Anaheim Ducks NHL · 92 pts	17	16▲1	43-33-6	-1	— Neutral 8 shootout wins (vs 0 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
17	Detroit Red Wings NHL · 92 pts	18	18	41-31-10	+2	— Neutral 5.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
18	Minnesota Wild NHL · 104 pts	7	5▲2	46-24-12	+3	— Neutral 0.2 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
19	Carolina Hurricanes NHL · 113 pts	2	2	53-22-7	+3	— Neutral 5 shootout wins (vs 4 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
20	Colorado Avalanche NHL · 121 pts	1	1	55-16-11	+4	— Neutral 11 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
21	Columbus Blue Jackets NHL · 92 pts	16	20▼4	40-30-12	+12	— Neutral 12 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
22	Chicago Blackhawks NHL · 72 pts	31	31	29-39-14	+14	— Neutral 2.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
↑ Lucky
23	Pittsburgh Penguins NHL · 98 pts	10	13▼3	41-25-16	+16	↑ Lucky 16 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
24	Nashville Predators NHL · 86 pts	22	25▼3	38-34-10	+23	↑ Lucky 5 shootout wins (vs 2 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
25	St. Louis Blues NHL · 86 pts	23	26▼3	37-33-12	+23	↑ Lucky 3.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
26	Los Angeles Kings NHL · 90 pts	20	23▼3	35-27-20	+23	↑ Lucky 5 shootout wins (vs 9 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
27	San Jose Sharks NHL · 86 pts	24	28▼4	39-35-8	+30	↑ Lucky 7.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
28	Philadelphia Flyers NHL · 98 pts	11	19▼8	43-27-12	+34	↑ Lucky 10 shootout wins (vs 4 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
✦ Blessed
29	Dallas Stars NHL · 112 pts	3	6▼3	50-20-12	+43	✦ Blessed 6 shootout wins (vs 4 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
30	Boston Bruins NHL · 100 pts	8	22▼14	45-27-10	+53	✦ Blessed 10 loser points collected. Taking games deep but walking away with half the reward each time.
31	Buffalo Sabres NHL · 109 pts	4	12▼8	50-23-9	+70	✦ Blessed 5 shootout wins (vs 1 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
32	Montréal Canadiens NHL · 106 pts	6	17▼11	48-24-10	+71	✦ Blessed 4.4 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.