The NHL CLS combines Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored/allowed), MoneyPuck expected goals, shootout luck, and close-game records to measure which hockey teams are lucky or unlucky.

What is Pythagorean expectation in hockey?

A formula that estimates how many games a team should win based on goals for and against: Win% = GF²/(GF²+GA²). Teams winning more than predicted are lucky.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NHL team is the most cursed?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The CLS identifies teams whose results are worse than their underlying performance.

Does shootout luck matter?

Yes. Shootouts are essentially coin flips with minimal skill correlation year-over-year. Teams with many shootout wins are benefiting from luck.

🏒 NHL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Hockey is the highest-variance major sport. Pucks bounce off posts, goalies have hot streaks, and shootouts are coin flips. The NHL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures all of it through 6 signals: Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored vs allowed, 25%), MoneyPuck xG finishing (are they scoring above their expected goals? 20%), xGA defense (15%), close-game record in one-goal games (15%), shootout net wins (15%), and overtime loss rate (10%). A team that controls play at 5-on-5 but keeps losing in the shootout will register as deeply cursed. A team riding a .940 save percentage from an average goaltender will register as blessed. The NHL is where regression hits hardest: the data says what the standings hide.

Season

Sort By

How is this calculated?

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
— Neutral
1	Detroit Red Wings NHL · 2 pts	24	22▲2	1-2-0	-13	— Neutral 0.9 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
2	Vancouver Canucks NHL · 4 pts	11	9▲2	2-2-0	-13	— Neutral 0.6 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
3	Los Angeles Kings NHL · 1 pts	31	31	0-2-1	-12	— Neutral 0.7 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
4	New York Islanders NHL · 2 pts	22	23▼1	1-2-0	-10	— Neutral 2.1 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
5	Seattle Kraken NHL · 4 pts	9	10▼1	2-2-0	-7	— Neutral 1.7 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
6	Dallas Stars NHL · 2 pts	23	24▼1	1-2-0	-5	— Neutral 1.3 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
7	Vegas Golden Knights NHL · 6 pts	3	2▲1	3-1-0	-3	— Neutral 0.5 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
8	Chicago Blackhawks NHL · 2 pts	28	25▲3	1-3-0	-3	— Neutral 0.1 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
9	New Jersey Devils NHL · 2 pts	29	26▲3	1-2-0	-3	— Neutral 0.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
10	New York Rangers NHL · 8 pts	1	1	4-1-0	-2	— Neutral 0.8 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
11	Toronto Maple Leafs NHL · 4 pts	12	11▲1	2-2-0	-2	— Neutral 0.4 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
12	Calgary Flames NHL · 0 pts	32	32	0-3-0	-2	— Neutral 0.2 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
13	Utah Mammoth NHL · 6 pts	2	3▼1	3-1-0	-1	— Neutral 1.2 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
14	Pittsburgh Penguins NHL · 4 pts	10	12▼2	2-1-0	-1	— Neutral 1.1 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
15	Washington Capitals NHL · 2 pts	25	28▼3	1-1-0	-1	— Neutral 0.6 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
16	St. Louis Blues NHL · 2 pts	27	27	1-2-0	-1	— Neutral 0.2 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
17	Ottawa Senators NHL · 4 pts	13	13	2-1-0	-1	— Neutral 0.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
18	Columbus Blue Jackets NHL · 2 pts	26	29▼3	1-1-0	0	— Neutral 0.2 points below what their goal differential predicts. Something beyond the box score is working against them.
19	Edmonton Oilers NHL · 5 pts	7	5▲2	2-0-1	+1	— Neutral 1.1 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
20	Philadelphia Flyers NHL · 2 pts	30	30	0-2-2	+2	— Neutral 1.3 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
21	Minnesota Wild NHL · 5 pts	5	6▼1	2-0-1	+3	— Neutral 0.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
22	Colorado Avalanche NHL · 4 pts	14	14	2-0-0	+3	— Neutral 0.1 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
23	Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · 4 pts	15	16▼1	2-1-0	+3	— Neutral 0.3 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
24	Anaheim Ducks NHL · 4 pts	18	15▲3	2-0-0	+3	— Neutral 1.1 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
25	Nashville Predators NHL · 3 pts	21	20▲1	1-1-1	+4	— Neutral 0.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
26	Carolina Hurricanes NHL · 5 pts	6	7▼1	2-1-1	+5	— Neutral 1.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
27	Florida Panthers NHL · 6 pts	4	4	2-0-2	+5	— Neutral 1.6 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
28	Montréal Canadiens NHL · 3 pts	20	21▼1	1-1-1	+6	— Neutral 0.2 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
29	San Jose Sharks NHL · 4 pts	19	17▲2	2-1-0	+7	— Neutral 1.6 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
30	Winnipeg Jets NHL · 5 pts	8	8	2-0-1	+8	— Neutral 1.3 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
31	Buffalo Sabres NHL · 4 pts	17	18▼1	2-1-0	+14	— Neutral 1.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
32	Boston Bruins NHL · 4 pts	16	19▼3	2-2-0	+15	— Neutral 0.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.