The NHL CLS combines Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored/allowed), MoneyPuck expected goals, shootout luck, and close-game records to measure which hockey teams are lucky or unlucky.

What is Pythagorean expectation in hockey?

A formula that estimates how many games a team should win based on goals for and against: Win% = GF²/(GF²+GA²). Teams winning more than predicted are lucky.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NHL team is the most cursed?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The CLS identifies teams whose results are worse than their underlying performance.

Does shootout luck matter?

Yes. Shootouts are essentially coin flips with minimal skill correlation year-over-year. Teams with many shootout wins are benefiting from luck.

🏒 NHL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

Hockey is the highest-variance major sport. Pucks bounce off posts, goalies have hot streaks, and shootouts are coin flips. The NHL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures all of it through 6 signals: Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored vs allowed, 25%), MoneyPuck xG finishing (are they scoring above their expected goals? 20%), xGA defense (15%), close-game record in one-goal games (15%), shootout net wins (15%), and overtime loss rate (10%). A team that controls play at 5-on-5 but keeps losing in the shootout will register as deeply cursed. A team riding a .940 save percentage from an average goaltender will register as blessed. The NHL is where regression hits hardest: the data says what the standings hide.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	New York Rangers NHL · 77 pts	29	16▲13	34-39-9	-66	☠ Cursed Shut out 10 times despite generating chances. The puck just won't go in.
2	Vancouver Canucks NHL · 58 pts	32	32	25-49-8	-55	☠ Cursed 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
↓ Unlucky
3	Edmonton Oilers NHL · 93 pts	14	8▲6	41-30-11	-39	↓ Unlucky 22 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
4	Vegas Golden Knights NHL · 95 pts	13	5▲8	39-26-17	-38	↓ Unlucky 17 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 17 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
5	Winnipeg Jets NHL · 82 pts	26	19▲7	35-35-12	-35	↓ Unlucky 0.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
6	Utah Mammoth NHL · 92 pts	15	11▲4	43-33-6	-31	↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
7	Washington Capitals NHL · 95 pts	12	9▲3	43-30-9	-27	↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
8	Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · 106 pts	5	2▲3	50-26-6	-26	↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
9	Ottawa Senators NHL · 99 pts	9	4▲5	44-27-11	-23	↓ Unlucky 22 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
10	Pittsburgh Penguins NHL · 98 pts	10	7▲3	41-25-16	-17	↓ Unlucky 16 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 16 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
11	Chicago Blackhawks NHL · 72 pts	31	31	29-39-14	-16	↓ Unlucky 2.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
— Neutral
12	Toronto Maple Leafs NHL · 78 pts	28	28	32-36-14	-13	— Neutral 0.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
13	Florida Panthers NHL · 84 pts	25	23▲2	40-38-4	-12	— Neutral 21 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
14	Seattle Kraken NHL · 79 pts	27	27	34-37-11	-11	— Neutral 0.6 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
15	Calgary Flames NHL · 77 pts	30	30	34-39-9	-11	— Neutral 2.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
16	New Jersey Devils NHL · 87 pts	21	18▲3	42-37-3	-11	— Neutral 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
17	St. Louis Blues NHL · 86 pts	23	22▲1	37-33-12	-3	— Neutral 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
18	Nashville Predators NHL · 86 pts	22	24▼2	38-34-10	-1	— Neutral 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
19	Columbus Blue Jackets NHL · 92 pts	16	15▲1	40-30-12	+3	— Neutral 25 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
20	Los Angeles Kings NHL · 90 pts	20	20	35-27-20	+5	— Neutral 21 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
21	Colorado Avalanche NHL · 121 pts	1	1	55-16-11	+12	— Neutral 11 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 11 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
↑ Lucky
22	Minnesota Wild NHL · 104 pts	7	10▼3	46-24-12	+22	↑ Lucky 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
23	Detroit Red Wings NHL · 92 pts	18	21▼3	41-31-10	+23	↑ Lucky 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
24	New York Islanders NHL · 91 pts	19	26▼7	43-34-5	+25	↑ Lucky 27 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
25	Philadelphia Flyers NHL · 98 pts	11	14▼3	43-27-12	+25	↑ Lucky 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
26	Carolina Hurricanes NHL · 113 pts	2	3▼1	53-22-7	+26	↑ Lucky 25 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
27	Anaheim Ducks NHL · 92 pts	17	25▼8	43-33-6	+29	↑ Lucky 24 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
28	San Jose Sharks NHL · 86 pts	24	29▼5	39-35-8	+30	↑ Lucky 22 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
✦ Blessed
29	Boston Bruins NHL · 100 pts	8	17▼9	45-27-10	+52	✦ Blessed 19 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
30	Dallas Stars NHL · 112 pts	3	6▼3	50-20-12	+52	✦ Blessed 28 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
31	Montréal Canadiens NHL · 106 pts	6	13▼7	48-24-10	+62	✦ Blessed 24 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
32	Buffalo Sabres NHL · 109 pts	4	12▼8	50-23-9	+70	✦ Blessed 5 shootout wins (vs 1 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.