🏒 NHL Luck Index Rankings

The NHL Luck Index ranks all 32 hockey teams using Pythagorean expectation, MoneyPuck expected goals (xG), shootout luck, and close-game records. Which NHL teams are cursed? Which are blessed? The data tells the story the standings don't.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	Luck Index	Trend	Highlight	Share
☠ Cursed
1	Vegas Golden Knights NHL · 84 pts	19	15▲4	34-26-16	-60		☠ Cursed 16 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 16 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
2	Vancouver Canucks NHL · 52 pts	32	32	22-45-8	-59		☠ Cursed 16 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
3	Utah Mammoth NHL · 84 pts	18	7▲11	39-30-6	-51		☠ Cursed 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
4	New York Rangers NHL · 71 pts	29	20▲9	31-36-9	-45		☠ Cursed Shut out 9 times despite generating chances. The puck just won't go in.
↓ Unlucky
5	Washington Capitals NHL · 85 pts	17	12▲5	38-29-9	-38		↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
6	Ottawa Senators NHL · 88 pts	11	11	39-26-10	-31		↓ Unlucky 20 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
7	Edmonton Oilers NHL · 87 pts	15	13▲2	39-28-9	-29		↓ Unlucky 19 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
8	Winnipeg Jets NHL · 76 pts	26	21▲5	32-31-12	-29		↓ Unlucky 24 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
9	Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · 100 pts	4	2▲2	47-22-6	-21		↓ Unlucky 15 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
10	Pittsburgh Penguins NHL · 92 pts	9	10▼1	38-22-16	-18		↓ Unlucky 16 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 16 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
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11	Los Angeles Kings NHL · 79 pts	22	27▼5	30-26-19	-17		↓ Unlucky 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
— Neutral
12	New Jersey Devils NHL · 80 pts	20	22▼2	39-34-2	-13		— Neutral 19 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
13	Seattle Kraken NHL · 75 pts	28	26▲2	32-31-11	-11		— Neutral 0.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
14	Calgary Flames NHL · 70 pts	30	30	31-36-8	-8		— Neutral 3.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
15	Florida Panthers NHL · 77 pts	24	23▲1	37-35-3	-7		— Neutral 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
16	Chicago Blackhawks NHL · 68 pts	31	31	27-35-14	-1		— Neutral 2.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
17	Colorado Avalanche NHL · 108 pts	1	1	49-15-10	+1		— Neutral 10 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 10 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
18	Carolina Hurricanes NHL · 102 pts	3	4▼1	48-21-6	+6		— Neutral 21 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
19	St. Louis Blues NHL · 76 pts	27	29▼2	32-31-12	+7		— Neutral 4.3 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
20	Detroit Red Wings NHL · 88 pts	14	18▼4	40-27-8	+9		— Neutral 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
21	Toronto Maple Leafs NHL · 77 pts	25	25	32-31-13	+11		— Neutral 2.0 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
↑ Lucky
22	Minnesota Wild NHL · 96 pts	7	6▲1	42-21-12	+19		↑ Lucky 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
23	Nashville Predators NHL · 79 pts	21	24▼3	35-31-9	+20		↑ Lucky 19 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
24	Columbus Blue Jackets NHL · 88 pts	12	14▼2	38-26-12	+21		↑ Lucky 6 shootout wins (vs 2 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
25	Philadelphia Flyers NHL · 88 pts	13	17▼4	38-26-12	+25		↑ Lucky 9 shootout wins (vs 4 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
26	San Jose Sharks NHL · 79 pts	23	28▼5	36-31-7	+29		↑ Lucky 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
27	New York Islanders NHL · 89 pts	10	16▼6	42-30-5	+30		↑ Lucky 27 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
28	Dallas Stars NHL · 102 pts	2	3▼1	45-19-12	+37		↑ Lucky 12 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 12 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
✦ Blessed
29	Anaheim Ducks NHL · 87 pts	16	19▼3	41-30-5	+49		✦ Blessed 23 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
30	Montréal Canadiens NHL · 98 pts	6	8▼2	44-21-10	+51		✦ Blessed 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
31	Boston Bruins NHL · 94 pts	8	9▼1	43-25-8	+55		✦ Blessed 19 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
32	Buffalo Sabres NHL · 100 pts	5	5	46-22-8	+67		✦ Blessed 5 shootout wins (vs 0 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.