The NHL CLS combines Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored/allowed), MoneyPuck expected goals, shootout luck, and close-game records to measure which hockey teams are lucky or unlucky.

What is Pythagorean expectation in hockey?

A formula that estimates how many games a team should win based on goals for and against: Win% = GF²/(GF²+GA²). Teams winning more than predicted are lucky.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NHL team is the most cursed?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The CLS identifies teams whose results are worse than their underlying performance.

Does shootout luck matter?

Yes. Shootouts are essentially coin flips with minimal skill correlation year-over-year. Teams with many shootout wins are benefiting from luck.

🏒 NHL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Season

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Hockey is the highest-variance major sport. Pucks bounce off posts, goalies have hot streaks, and shootouts are coin flips. The NHL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures all of it through 6 signals: Pythagorean expectation (expected wins from goals scored vs allowed, 25%), MoneyPuck xG finishing (are they scoring above their expected goals? 20%), xGA defense (15%), close-game record in one-goal games (15%), shootout net wins (15%), and overtime loss rate (10%). A team that controls play at 5-on-5 but keeps losing in the shootout will register as deeply cursed. A team riding a .940 save percentage from an average goaltender will register as blessed. The NHL is where regression hits hardest: the data says what the standings hide.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Vancouver Canucks NHL · 58 pts	32	32	25-49-8	-52	☠ Cursed 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
2	New York Rangers NHL · 77 pts	29	23▲6	34-39-9	-48	☠ Cursed Shut out 10 times despite generating chances. The puck just won't go in.
3	Edmonton Oilers NHL · 93 pts	14	7▲7	41-30-11	-42	☠ Cursed 22 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
↓ Unlucky
4	Winnipeg Jets NHL · 82 pts	26	20▲6	35-35-12	-38	↓ Unlucky 0.5 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
5	Vegas Golden Knights NHL · 95 pts	13	5▲8	39-26-17	-36	↓ Unlucky 17 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 17 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
6	Utah Mammoth NHL · 92 pts	15	11▲4	43-33-6	-35	↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
7	Washington Capitals NHL · 95 pts	12	6▲6	43-30-9	-33	↓ Unlucky 17 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
8	Ottawa Senators NHL · 99 pts	9	4▲5	44-27-11	-31	↓ Unlucky 21 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
9	Florida Panthers NHL · 84 pts	25	18▲7	40-38-4	-30	↓ Unlucky 21 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
10	Calgary Flames NHL · 77 pts	30	28▲2	34-39-9	-19	↓ Unlucky 2.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
11	Seattle Kraken NHL · 79 pts	27	26▲1	34-37-11	-18	↓ Unlucky 0.6 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
12	Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · 106 pts	5	2▲3	50-26-6	-15	↓ Unlucky 16 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
— Neutral
13	Pittsburgh Penguins NHL · 98 pts	10	10	41-25-16	-14	— Neutral 16 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 16 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
14	Chicago Blackhawks NHL · 72 pts	31	31	29-39-14	-14	— Neutral 2.8 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
15	New Jersey Devils NHL · 87 pts	21	21	42-37-3	-13	— Neutral 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
16	Toronto Maple Leafs NHL · 78 pts	28	29▼1	32-36-14	-10	— Neutral 0.9 points above what their goal differential predicts. Getting results that their underlying numbers don't fully justify.
17	New York Islanders NHL · 91 pts	19	16▲3	43-34-5	+2	— Neutral 27 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
18	Colorado Avalanche NHL · 121 pts	1	1	55-16-11	+5	— Neutral 11 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 11 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
19	Columbus Blue Jackets NHL · 92 pts	16	17▼1	40-30-12	+8	— Neutral 25 one-goal defeats. Competitive in almost every loss but can't get over the line.
20	Los Angeles Kings NHL · 90 pts	20	22▼2	35-27-20	+9	— Neutral 21 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
21	Detroit Red Wings NHL · 92 pts	18	19▼1	41-31-10	+11	— Neutral 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
22	Minnesota Wild NHL · 104 pts	7	8▼1	46-24-12	+14	— Neutral 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
↑ Lucky
23	St. Louis Blues NHL · 86 pts	23	25▼2	37-33-12	+16	↑ Lucky 18 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
24	Nashville Predators NHL · 86 pts	22	27▼5	38-34-10	+22	↑ Lucky 20 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
25	Philadelphia Flyers NHL · 98 pts	11	13▼2	43-27-12	+22	↑ Lucky 10 shootout wins (vs 4 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.
26	Anaheim Ducks NHL · 92 pts	17	24▼7	43-33-6	+29	↑ Lucky 24 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
27	Carolina Hurricanes NHL · 113 pts	2	3▼1	53-22-7	+33	↑ Lucky 24 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
✦ Blessed
28	San Jose Sharks NHL · 86 pts	24	30▼6	39-35-8	+43	✦ Blessed 22 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
29	Boston Bruins NHL · 100 pts	8	15▼7	45-27-10	+47	✦ Blessed 10 OT/SO losses this season. Good enough to tie 10 times but lost every coin flip in extra time.
30	Dallas Stars NHL · 112 pts	3	9▼6	50-20-12	+54	✦ Blessed 28 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
31	Montréal Canadiens NHL · 106 pts	6	14▼8	48-24-10	+66	✦ Blessed 23 one-goal wins this season. Winning by the slimmest margin that many times is statistically unlikely - the bounces are going their way.
32	Buffalo Sabres NHL · 109 pts	4	12▼8	50-23-9	+67	✦ Blessed 5 shootout wins (vs 1 losses). Shootouts have minimal year-over-year repeatability - this record is mostly luck.