What is the La Liga CLS?

The La Liga CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Spanish league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which La Liga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ La Liga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated Apr 21, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

La Liga is where xG analysis was born. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) applies it rigorously: every match simulated via Poisson distribution from both teams' xG to derive expected points, then 7 signals are z-scored and weighted across the league. The model picks up the finishing variance that defines Spanish football: a team that creates 2.5 xG per game but only scores 1.2 goals is being cursed by their own strikers. A team that concedes 0.8 xGA but lets in 1.5 goals has a goalkeeper problem. From Barcelona's clinical finishing to the relegation battle, the CLS separates who deserves their league position from who got there by variance.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Athletic Club La Liga · 38 pts	10	4▲6	11W 5D 15L	-68	☠ Cursed Scored 10 fewer than xG (33 from 43.37 xG). 10.4 pts below expected.
2	Rayo Vallecano La Liga · 35 pts	14	7▲7	8W 11D 12L	-49	☠ Cursed Scored 14 fewer than xG (29 from 42.9 xG). 10.1 pts below expected.
3	Valencia La Liga · 35 pts	13	8▲5	9W 8D 14L	-47	☠ Cursed Scored 7 fewer than xG (34 from 40.63 xG). 11.4 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
4	Oviedo La Liga · 27 pts	20	18▲2	6W 9D 16L	-23	↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (24 from 30.38 xG). 3.7 pts below expected.
5	Alaves La Liga · 33 pts	17	13▲4	8W 9D 14L	-20	↓ Unlucky 7.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
6	Levante La Liga · 29 pts	19	17▲2	7W 8D 16L	-14	— Neutral Scored 5 fewer than xG (35 from 39.56 xG). 6.3 pts below expected.
7	Girona La Liga · 38 pts	12	10▲2	9W 11D 11L	-13	— Neutral 1.5 points above expected.
8	Sevilla La Liga · 34 pts	15	16▼1	9W 7D 15L	-4	— Neutral Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.8 extra pts.
9	Real Sociedad La Liga · 42 pts	7	9▼2	11W 9D 11L	-1	— Neutral 1.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
10	Real Betis La Liga · 46 pts	5	6▼1	11W 13D 7L	+3	— Neutral 3.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Espanyol La Liga · 38 pts	11	14▼3	10W 8D 13L	+5	— Neutral 1.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
12	Getafe La Liga · 41 pts	8	11▼3	12W 5D 14L	+7	— Neutral 5.9 points above expected.
13	Real Madrid La Liga · 70 pts	2	2	22W 4D 5L	+14	— Neutral 8.1 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
14	Osasuna La Liga · 39 pts	9	15▼6	10W 9D 12L	+16	↑ Lucky 1.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
15	Elche La Liga · 32 pts	18	20▼2	7W 11D 13L	+23	↑ Lucky 0.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
16	Celta Vigo La Liga · 44 pts	6	12▼6	11W 11D 9L	+27	↑ Lucky 1.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
17	Mallorca La Liga · 34 pts	16	19▼3	9W 7D 15L	+27	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.9 extra pts.
18	Villarreal La Liga · 61 pts	3	3	19W 4D 8L	+31	↑ Lucky Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 12.3 extra pts.
19	ATL Atletico Madrid La Liga · 57 pts	4	5▼1	17W 6D 8L	+40	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.2 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
20	Barcelona La Liga · 79 pts	1	1	26W 1D 4L	+46	✦ Blessed Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 17.4 extra pts.