What is the La Liga CLS?

The La Liga CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Spanish league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which La Liga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ La Liga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

La Liga is where xG analysis was born. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) applies it rigorously: every match simulated via Poisson distribution from both teams' xG to derive expected points, then 7 signals are z-scored and weighted across the league. The model picks up the finishing variance that defines Spanish football: a team that creates 2.5 xG per game but only scores 1.2 goals is being cursed by their own strikers. A team that concedes 0.8 xGA but lets in 1.5 goals has a goalkeeper problem. From Barcelona's clinical finishing to the relegation battle, the CLS separates who deserves their league position from who got there by variance.

Season

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How is this calculated?

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
↓ Unlucky
1	Valencia La Liga · 4 pts	19	16▲3	1W 1D 5L	-27	↓ Unlucky 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	MAL Malaga La Liga · 3 pts	20	20	0W 3D 4L	-22	↓ Unlucky 3.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
3	Osasuna La Liga · 8 pts	11	7▲4	2W 2D 3L	-16	↓ Unlucky 1.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	Villarreal La Liga · 8 pts	9	8▲1	2W 2D 3L	-15	↓ Unlucky 4.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
5	Athletic Club La Liga · 8 pts	10	10	2W 2D 2L	-12	— Neutral 3.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	RAC Racing Santander La Liga · 7 pts	16	14▲2	2W 1D 4L	-8	— Neutral 1.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
7	Rayo Vallecano La Liga · 8 pts	12	12	2W 2D 3L	-6	— Neutral 0.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Elche La Liga · 5 pts	17	18▼1	1W 2D 4L	-5	— Neutral 3.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Getafe La Liga · 8 pts	13	13	2W 2D 3L	-5	— Neutral 1.4 points above expected.
10	Espanyol La Liga · 7 pts	14	15▼1	2W 1D 4L	-4	— Neutral 2.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Real Madrid La Liga · 15 pts	4	2▲2	5W 0D 2L	0	— Neutral 0.0 points above expected.
12	Levante La Liga · 5 pts	18	19▼1	1W 2D 3L	+1	— Neutral 1.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
13	Celta Vigo La Liga · 7 pts	15	17▼2	1W 4D 2L	+8	— Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
14	DEP Deportivo La Coruna La Liga · 10 pts	8	9▼1	2W 4D 1L	+11	— Neutral 1.8 points above expected.
15	Real Sociedad La Liga · 10 pts	7	11▼4	3W 1D 3L	+13	— Neutral 1.8 points above expected.
16	Alaves La Liga · 11 pts	6	6	3W 2D 2L	+14	— Neutral 0.8 points above expected.
17	ATL Atletico Madrid La Liga · 16 pts	2	3▼1	5W 1D 1L	+15	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.4 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
18	Sevilla La Liga · 13 pts	5	5	4W 1D 2L	+19	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.6 extra pts.
19	Barcelona La Liga · 21 pts	1	1	7W 0D 0L	+20	↑ Lucky 4.7 points above expected.
20	Real Betis La Liga · 16 pts	3	4▼1	5W 1D 1L	+20	↑ Lucky 7.3 points above expected.