What is the La Liga CLS?

The La Liga CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Spanish league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which La Liga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ La Liga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Season

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

La Liga is where xG analysis was born. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) applies it rigorously: every match simulated via Poisson distribution from both teams' xG to derive expected points, then 7 signals are z-scored and weighted across the league. The model picks up the finishing variance that defines Spanish football: a team that creates 2.5 xG per game but only scores 1.2 goals is being cursed by their own strikers. A team that concedes 0.8 xGA but lets in 1.5 goals has a goalkeeper problem. From Barcelona's clinical finishing to the relegation battle, the CLS separates who deserves their league position from who got there by variance.

Season

Sort By

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Athletic Club La Liga · 45 pts	10	5▲5	13W 6D 18L	-66	☠ Cursed Scored 9 fewer than xG (41 from 49.88 xG). 11.8 pts below expected.
2	Oviedo La Liga · 29 pts	20	18▲2	6W 11D 20L	-45	☠ Cursed Scored 10 fewer than xG (26 from 35.79 xG). 8.3 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
3	Girona La Liga · 40 pts	18	11▲7	9W 13D 15L	-39	↓ Unlucky Scored 10 fewer than xG (38 from 47.57 xG). 6.6 pts below expected.
4	Rayo Vallecano La Liga · 47 pts	8	7▲1	11W 14D 12L	-37	↓ Unlucky Scored 13 fewer than xG (39 from 51.56 xG). 6.6 pts below expected.
5	Valencia La Liga · 46 pts	9	8▲1	12W 10D 15L	-35	↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (43 from 48.42 xG). 8.1 pts below expected.
6	Alaves La Liga · 43 pts	13	9▲4	11W 10D 16L	-26	↓ Unlucky 6.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
7	Real Sociedad La Liga · 45 pts	11	12▼1	11W 12D 14L	-8	— Neutral 5.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Levante La Liga · 42 pts	16	16	11W 9D 17L	-4	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (46 from 50.05 xG). 4.1 pts below expected.
9	Sevilla La Liga · 43 pts	14	14	12W 7D 18L	-3	— Neutral Scored 8 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.8 extra pts.
10	Getafe La Liga · 48 pts	7	10▼3	14W 6D 17L	+1	— Neutral 5.4 points above expected.
11	Osasuna La Liga · 42 pts	15	17▼2	11W 9D 17L	+2	— Neutral 7.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
12	Real Betis La Liga · 57 pts	5	6▼1	14W 15D 8L	+7	— Neutral 0.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
13	Espanyol La Liga · 45 pts	12	15▼3	12W 9D 16L	+11	— Neutral Scored 4 fewer than xG (42 from 46.1 xG). 0.5 pts below expected.
↑ Lucky
14	Real Madrid La Liga · 83 pts	2	2	26W 5D 6L	+19	↑ Lucky 12.1 points above expected.
15	Mallorca La Liga · 39 pts	19	20▼1	10W 9D 18L	+21	↑ Lucky 1.4 points above expected.
16	Celta Vigo La Liga · 51 pts	6	13▼7	13W 12D 12L	+28	↑ Lucky 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
17	Villarreal La Liga · 69 pts	4	3▲1	21W 6D 10L	+30	↑ Lucky Scored 11 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 11.7 extra pts.
18	Elche La Liga · 42 pts	17	19▼2	10W 12D 15L	+31	↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.1 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
19	ATL Atletico Madrid La Liga · 69 pts	3	4▼1	21W 6D 10L	+52	✦ Blessed 11.6 points above expected.
20	Barcelona La Liga · 94 pts	1	1	31W 1D 5L	+61	✦ Blessed Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 23.2 extra pts.