What is the La Liga CLS?

The La Liga CLS uses expected goals (xG) from API-Football to measure which Spanish league teams have more or fewer points than their performance deserves.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which La Liga team is the unluckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Unlucky'. The team at the top has been most robbed by luck this season.

⚽ La Liga CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

La Liga is where xG analysis was born. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) applies it rigorously: every match simulated via Poisson distribution from both teams' xG to derive expected points, then 7 signals are z-scored and weighted across the league. The model picks up the finishing variance that defines Spanish football: a team that creates 2.5 xG per game but only scores 1.2 goals is being cursed by their own strikers. A team that concedes 0.8 xGA but lets in 1.5 goals has a goalkeeper problem. From Barcelona's clinical finishing to the relegation battle, the CLS separates who deserves their league position from who got there by variance.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Athletic Club La Liga · 45 pts	12	5▲7	13W 6D 19L	-71	☠ Cursed Scored 8 fewer than xG (43 from 50.69 xG). 12.5 pts below expected.
2	Oviedo La Liga · 29 pts	20	18▲2	6W 11D 21L	-43	☠ Cursed Scored 10 fewer than xG (26 from 36.08 xG). 8.5 pts below expected.
3	Girona La Liga · 41 pts	19	10▲9	9W 14D 15L	-42	☠ Cursed Scored 9 fewer than xG (39 from 48.15 xG). 7.3 pts below expected.
↓ Unlucky
4	Alaves La Liga · 43 pts	13	9▲4	11W 10D 17L	-32	↓ Unlucky 8.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
5	Valencia La Liga · 49 pts	9	8▲1	13W 10D 15L	-32	↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (46 from 49.9 xG). 6.4 pts below expected.
6	Rayo Vallecano La Liga · 50 pts	8	7▲1	12W 14D 12L	-32	↓ Unlucky Scored 12 fewer than xG (41 from 52.9 xG). 4.8 pts below expected.
— Neutral
7	Levante La Liga · 42 pts	17	16▲1	11W 9D 18L	-10	— Neutral Scored 5 fewer than xG (47 from 52.33 xG). 5.9 pts below expected.
8	Real Sociedad La Liga · 46 pts	10	13▼3	11W 13D 14L	-7	— Neutral 5.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Sevilla La Liga · 43 pts	15	15	12W 7D 19L	-6	— Neutral Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.0 extra pts.
10	Osasuna La Liga · 42 pts	16	17▼1	11W 9D 18L	-2	— Neutral 9.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	Espanyol La Liga · 46 pts	11	14▼3	12W 10D 16L	+9	— Neutral Scored 6 fewer than xG (43 from 48.51 xG). 1.5 pts below expected.
12	Getafe La Liga · 51 pts	7	11▼4	15W 6D 17L	+11	— Neutral 7.5 points above expected.
13	Real Betis La Liga · 60 pts	5	6▼1	15W 15D 8L	+12	— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.6 extra pts.
↑ Lucky
14	Real Madrid La Liga · 86 pts	2	2	27W 5D 6L	+25	↑ Lucky 12.9 points above expected.
15	Mallorca La Liga · 42 pts	18	19▼1	11W 9D 18L	+26	↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.7 extra pts.
16	Celta Vigo La Liga · 54 pts	6	12▼6	14W 12D 12L	+29	↑ Lucky 0.5 points above expected.
17	Villarreal La Liga · 72 pts	3	3	22W 6D 10L	+33	↑ Lucky Scored 14 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 12.6 extra pts.
18	Elche La Liga · 43 pts	14	20▼6	10W 13D 15L	+35	↑ Lucky Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.3 extra pts.
✦ Blessed
19	ATL Atletico Madrid La Liga · 69 pts	4	4	21W 6D 11L	+43	✦ Blessed 11.0 points above expected.
20	Barcelona La Liga · 94 pts	1	1	31W 1D 6L	+56	✦ Blessed Scored 8 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 21.8 extra pts.