The NBA CLS uses Pythagorean expectation with the Morey exponent (13.91) to measure which basketball teams are winning more or fewer games than their point differential predicts.

Why is the NBA the least luck-driven sport?

The best NBA teams win ~75% of games, the highest rate in major sports. High scoring and many possessions reduce variance. But luck still matters for playoff seeding.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NBA team is the luckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Lucky'. Teams with large positive CLS scores are outperforming their point differential.

🏀 NBA CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Season

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Basketball is the most predictable major sport. Point differentials predict playoff success better than win-loss records do. But even in the NBA, sequencing luck matters: a team that loses every close game but blows out weaker opponents will underperform their Pythagorean expectation. The NBA CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses 7 base signals plus a scaled injury burden factor: garbage-time-adjusted Pythagorean (margins capped at 15 to strip blowout noise, 25%), close-game luck as a continuous W/L + net margin signal (17%), offensive 3PT luck (11%), offensive 2PT luck (7%), defensive 3PT luck (11%), defensive 2PT luck (7%), and opponent free throw luck (7%, the purest luck signal in basketball since defense has zero influence on FT%). Shooting is decomposed into 3PT/2PT/FT components because three-point variance is the highest (purest luck), while 2PT shooting is more skill-heavy.

Season

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Brooklyn Nets NBA · 20 pts	28	25▲3	20-62	-60	☠ Cursed 20-62 with a -819 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
2	Washington Wizards NBA · 17 pts	30	29▲1	17-65	-55	☠ Cursed 17-65 with a -982 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
3	Utah Jazz NBA · 22 pts	26	26	22-60	-49	☠ Cursed 22-60 with a -692 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
4	Memphis Grizzlies NBA · 25 pts	25	23▲2	25-57	-48	☠ Cursed 25-57 with a -493 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
5	New Orleans Pelicans NBA · 26 pts	23	22▲1	26-56	-43	☠ Cursed 26-56 with a -369 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
6	Indiana Pacers NBA · 19 pts	29	30▼1	19-63	-40	☠ Cursed 19-63 with a -655 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
7	Sacramento Kings NBA · 22 pts	27	28▼1	22-60	-40	☠ Cursed 22-60 with a -820 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 26.3 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
↓ Unlucky
8	Dallas Mavericks NBA · 26 pts	24	27▼3	26-56	-27	↓ Unlucky 26-56 with a -452 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 30.9 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
9	Chicago Bulls NBA · 31 pts	22	21▲1	31-51	-22	↓ Unlucky 31-51 with a -427 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 32.1 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
— Neutral
10	Miami Heat NBA · 43 pts	17	8▲9	43-39	-13	— Neutral 43-39 with a +191 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
11	Golden State Warriors NBA · 37 pts	20	20	37-45	-9	— Neutral 37-45 with a -46 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 39.1 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
12	Milwaukee Bucks NBA · 32 pts	21	24▼3	32-50	-5	— Neutral 32-50 with a -509 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
13	LA Clippers NBA · 42 pts	18	16▲2	42-40	-1	— Neutral 42-40 with a +93 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Charlotte Hornets NBA · 44 pts	16	13▲3	44-38	0	— Neutral 44-38 with a +396 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 46.4 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
15	Portland Trail Blazers NBA · 42 pts	19	17▲2	42-40	0	— Neutral 42-40 with a -24 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Phoenix Suns NBA · 45 pts	13	12▲1	45-37	+4	— Neutral 45-37 with a +120 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Toronto Raptors NBA · 46 pts	12	11▲1	46-36	+8	— Neutral 46-36 with a +232 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
18	Orlando Magic NBA · 45 pts	15	15	45-37	+11	— Neutral 45-37 with a +52 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
19	Atlanta Hawks NBA · 46 pts	11	14▼3	46-36	+14	— Neutral 46-36 with a +198 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
20	Philadelphia 76ers NBA · 45 pts	14	18▼4	45-37	+18	↑ Lucky 45-37 with a -15 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Houston Rockets NBA · 52 pts	8	5▲3	52-30	+21	↑ Lucky 52-30 with a +428 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
22	Boston Celtics NBA · 56 pts	4	4	56-26	+30	↑ Lucky 56-26 with a +631 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
23	Detroit Pistons NBA · 60 pts	3	2▲1	60-22	+30	↑ Lucky 60 wins from a +669 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
24	San Antonio Spurs NBA · 62 pts	2	1▲1	62-20	+32	↑ Lucky 62 wins from a +681 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
25	Los Angeles Lakers NBA · 53 pts	7	6▲1	53-29	+32	↑ Lucky 53 wins from a +145 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
26	Cleveland Cavaliers NBA · 52 pts	9	9	52-30	+33	↑ Lucky 52-30 with a +336 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
27	New York Knicks NBA · 53 pts	6	7▼1	53-29	+35	↑ Lucky 53-29 with a +519 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
28	Minnesota Timberwolves NBA · 49 pts	10	19▼9	49-33	+38	↑ Lucky 49-33 with a +275 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
✦ Blessed
29	Denver Nuggets NBA · 54 pts	5	10▼5	54-28	+46	✦ Blessed 54-28 with a +423 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
30	Oklahoma City Thunder NBA · 64 pts	1	3▼2	64-18	+62	✦ Blessed 64 wins from a +914 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.