The NBA CLS uses Pythagorean expectation with the Morey exponent (13.91) to measure which basketball teams are winning more or fewer games than their point differential predicts.

Why is the NBA the least luck-driven sport?

The best NBA teams win ~75% of games, the highest rate in major sports. High scoring and many possessions reduce variance. But luck still matters for playoff seeding.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NBA team is the luckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Lucky'. Teams with large positive CLS scores are outperforming their point differential.

🏀 NBA CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Basketball is the most predictable major sport. Point differentials predict playoff success better than win-loss records do. But even in the NBA, sequencing luck matters: a team that loses every close game but blows out weaker opponents will underperform their Pythagorean expectation. The NBA CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses 7 base signals plus a scaled injury burden factor: garbage-time-adjusted Pythagorean (margins capped at 15 to strip blowout noise, 25%), close-game luck as a continuous W/L + net margin signal (17%), offensive 3PT luck (11%), offensive 2PT luck (7%), defensive 3PT luck (11%), defensive 2PT luck (7%), and opponent free throw luck (7%, the purest luck signal in basketball since defense has zero influence on FT%). Shooting is decomposed into 3PT/2PT/FT components because three-point variance is the highest (purest luck), while 2PT shooting is more skill-heavy.

Season

Sort By

How is this calculated?

Scroll for full table

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
— Neutral
1	Golden State Warriors NBA · 1 pts	3	1▲2	1-1	-6	— Neutral 1-1 with a +23 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
2	Orlando Magic NBA · 0 pts	18	20▼2	0-0	-5	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
3	Washington Wizards NBA · 0 pts	22	24▼2	0-0	-5	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
4	Portland Trail Blazers NBA · 0 pts	17	19▼2	0-0	-4	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
5	San Antonio Spurs NBA · 0 pts	13	15▼2	0-0	-3	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
6	Indiana Pacers NBA · 0 pts	21	23▼2	0-0	-3	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
7	Sacramento Kings NBA · 0 pts	30	13▲17	0-1	-3	— Neutral 0-1 with a -24 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
8	Cleveland Cavaliers NBA · 0 pts	16	18▼2	0-0	-2	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
9	Chicago Bulls NBA · 0 pts	19	21▼2	0-0	-2	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
10	Dallas Mavericks NBA · 0 pts	20	22▼2	0-0	-2	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
11	Utah Jazz NBA · 1 pts	4	2▲2	1-1	-2	— Neutral 1-1 with a +1 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
12	Philadelphia 76ers NBA · 1 pts	7	3▲4	1-0	-2	— Neutral 1-0 with a +23 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
13	Brooklyn Nets NBA · 1 pts	12	4▲8	1-0	-2	— Neutral 1-0 with a +34 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
14	Phoenix Suns NBA · 0 pts	28	14▲14	0-1	-1	— Neutral 0-1 with a -2 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
15	Boston Celtics NBA · 0 pts	14	16▼2	0-0	0	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
16	Houston Rockets NBA · 0 pts	15	17▼2	0-0	0	— Neutral 0-0 with a 0 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Memphis Grizzlies NBA · 1 pts	10	5▲5	1-0	0	— Neutral 1-0 with a +9 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	Atlanta Hawks NBA · 0 pts	24	25▼1	0-1	+1	— Neutral 0-1 with a -9 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
19	Charlotte Hornets NBA · 0 pts	26	26	0-1	+1	— Neutral 0-1 with a -34 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Toronto Raptors NBA · 0 pts	27	27	0-1	+1	— Neutral 0-1 with a -24 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Los Angeles Lakers NBA · 1 pts	2	7▼5	1-1	+1	— Neutral 1-1 with a -2 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
22	Miami Heat NBA · 1 pts	8	6▲2	1-0	+1	— Neutral 1-0 with a +24 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
23	LA Clippers NBA · 1 pts	9	8▲1	1-0	+2	— Neutral 1-0 with a +3 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
24	New Orleans Pelicans NBA · 1 pts	11	9▲2	1-0	+2	— Neutral 1-0 with a +6 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
25	Oklahoma City Thunder NBA · 0 pts	23	28▼5	0-1	+3	— Neutral 0-1 with a -6 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
26	Milwaukee Bucks NBA · 0 pts	29	29	0-1	+3	— Neutral 0-1 with a -19 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
27	New York Knicks NBA · 0 pts	25	30▼5	0-1	+4	— Neutral 0-1 with a -23 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
28	Minnesota Timberwolves NBA · 1 pts	6	10▼4	1-0	+4	— Neutral 1-0 with a +19 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
29	Denver Nuggets NBA · 1 pts	1	12▼11	1-1	+7	— Neutral 1-1 with a -1 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
30	Detroit Pistons NBA · 1 pts	5	11▼6	1-0	+8	— Neutral 1-0 with a +2 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.