The NBA CLS uses Pythagorean expectation with the Morey exponent (13.91) to measure which basketball teams are winning more or fewer games than their point differential predicts.

Why is the NBA the least luck-driven sport?

The best NBA teams win ~75% of games, the highest rate in major sports. High scoring and many possessions reduce variance. But luck still matters for playoff seeding.

What are the Luck Adjusted Standings (LAS)?

The Luck Adjusted Standings re-rank teams by removing measured luck from their record. If a team is 8th in the actual standings but has a deeply negative CLS, LAS might place them 3rd - reflecting where they would likely be if luck evened out. It's a way to see the 'true' table based on performance rather than results.

Which NBA team is the luckiest?

Check the rankings above sorted by 'Most Lucky'. Teams with large positive CLS scores are outperforming their point differential.

🏀 NBA CURSD Luck Score Rankings

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Basketball is the most predictable major sport. Point differentials predict playoff success better than win-loss records do. But even in the NBA, sequencing luck matters: a team that loses every close game but blows out weaker opponents will underperform their Pythagorean expectation. The NBA CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses 7 base signals plus a scaled injury burden factor: garbage-time-adjusted Pythagorean (margins capped at 15 to strip blowout noise, 25%), close-game luck as a continuous W/L + net margin signal (17%), offensive 3PT luck (11%), offensive 2PT luck (7%), defensive 3PT luck (11%), defensive 2PT luck (7%), and opponent free throw luck (7%, the purest luck signal in basketball since defense has zero influence on FT%). Shooting is decomposed into 3PT/2PT/FT components because three-point variance is the highest (purest luck), while 2PT shooting is more skill-heavy.

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RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Highlight
☠ Cursed
1	Washington Wizards NBA · 17 pts	30	28▲2	17-65	-57	☠ Cursed 17-65 with a -982 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
2	Memphis Grizzlies NBA · 25 pts	25	21▲4	25-57	-57	☠ Cursed 25-57 with a -493 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
3	Sacramento Kings NBA · 22 pts	27	23▲4	22-60	-53	☠ Cursed 22-60 with a -820 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 26.3 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
4	Utah Jazz NBA · 22 pts	26	25▲1	22-60	-42	☠ Cursed 22-60 with a -692 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
↓ Unlucky
5	Brooklyn Nets NBA · 20 pts	28	29▼1	20-62	-39	↓ Unlucky 20-62 with a -819 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
6	Indiana Pacers NBA · 19 pts	29	30▼1	19-63	-34	↓ Unlucky 19-63 with a -655 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
7	Golden State Warriors NBA · 37 pts	20	14▲6	37-45	-31	↓ Unlucky 37-45 with a -46 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 39.1 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
8	New Orleans Pelicans NBA · 26 pts	23	24▼1	26-56	-25	↓ Unlucky 26-56 with a -369 point differential. Getting robbed across multiple signals. The data says they deserve better.
9	Dallas Mavericks NBA · 26 pts	24	26▼2	26-56	-21	↓ Unlucky 26-56 with a -452 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 30.9 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
10	Miami Heat NBA · 43 pts	17	8▲9	43-39	-17	↓ Unlucky 43-39 with a +191 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
— Neutral
11	Chicago Bulls NBA · 31 pts	22	22	31-51	-13	— Neutral 31-51 with a -427 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 32.1 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
12	Toronto Raptors NBA · 46 pts	12	5▲7	46-36	-8	— Neutral 46-36 with a +232 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
13	San Antonio Spurs NBA · 62 pts	2	1▲1	62-20	-6	— Neutral 62 wins from a +681 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
14	Portland Trail Blazers NBA · 42 pts	19	17▲2	42-40	-4	— Neutral 42-40 with a -24 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
15	Charlotte Hornets NBA · 44 pts	16	11▲5	44-38	+2	— Neutral 44-38 with a +396 point differential. The numbers say they should have closer to 46.4 wins. Margins have fallen the wrong way.
16	LA Clippers NBA · 42 pts	18	19▼1	42-40	+7	— Neutral 42-40 with a +93 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
17	Atlanta Hawks NBA · 46 pts	11	9▲2	46-36	+7	— Neutral 46-36 with a +198 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
18	Orlando Magic NBA · 45 pts	15	13▲2	45-37	+7	— Neutral 45-37 with a +52 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
19	Milwaukee Bucks NBA · 32 pts	21	27▼6	32-50	+9	— Neutral 32-50 with a -509 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
20	Phoenix Suns NBA · 45 pts	13	15▼2	45-37	+9	— Neutral 45-37 with a +120 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
21	Philadelphia 76ers NBA · 45 pts	14	18▼4	45-37	+11	— Neutral 45-37 with a -15 point differential. Right where the data says they should be. No significant luck in either direction.
↑ Lucky
22	Cleveland Cavaliers NBA · 52 pts	9	6▲3	52-30	+23	↑ Lucky 52-30 with a +336 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
23	Houston Rockets NBA · 52 pts	8	7▲1	52-30	+24	↑ Lucky 52-30 with a +428 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
24	Minnesota Timberwolves NBA · 49 pts	10	12▼2	49-33	+27	↑ Lucky 49-33 with a +275 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
25	Oklahoma City Thunder NBA · 64 pts	1	2▼1	64-18	+30	↑ Lucky 64 wins from a +914 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
26	Boston Celtics NBA · 56 pts	4	4	56-26	+33	↑ Lucky 56-26 with a +631 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
✦ Blessed
27	Detroit Pistons NBA · 60 pts	3	3	60-22	+49	✦ Blessed 60 wins from a +669 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
28	Los Angeles Lakers NBA · 53 pts	7	16▼9	53-29	+49	✦ Blessed 53 wins from a +145 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games and getting favorable bounces at an unsustainable rate.
29	Denver Nuggets NBA · 54 pts	5	10▼5	54-28	+51	✦ Blessed 54-28 with a +423 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.
30	New York Knicks NBA · 53 pts	6	20▼14	53-29	+68	✦ Blessed 53-29 with a +519 point differential. Winning more than their underlying performance justifies. Regression is probable.