⚽ MLS CURSD Luck Score Rankings

MLS is uniquely volatile. Salary caps, mid-season roster turnover, altitude differences, and coast-to-coast travel create variance that European leagues don't have. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures it through the same 7-signal model used for the top 5 European leagues, with xPTS delta from Poisson simulation at 25%, finishing luck at 18%, and schedule-adjusted opponent strength providing extra signal in a league where fixture congestion varies wildly between teams. From Inter Miami and LAFC to the Supporters' Shield race and the playoff push, the CLS separates the real contenders from the teams that will fade when regression arrives.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Trend	Highlight	Share
↓ Unlucky
1	Orlando City SC MLS · 4 pts	29	23▲6	1W 1D 6L	-25		↓ Unlucky 2.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
2	St. Louis City MLS · 6 pts	25	17▲8	1W 3D 4L	-24		↓ Unlucky 4.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
3	FC Cincinnati MLS · 8 pts	20	8▲12	2W 2D 4L	-23		↓ Unlucky 4.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
4	Philadelphia Union MLS · 4 pts	27	24▲3	1W 1D 6L	-22		↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (6 from 10.79 xG). 6.1 pts below expected.
5	Columbus Crew MLS · 6 pts	24	22▲2	1W 3D 4L	-15		↓ Unlucky 5.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
6	Atlanta United FC MLS · 4 pts	28	27▲1	1W 1D 6L	-15		↓ Unlucky 3.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
— Neutral
7	Los Angeles Galaxy MLS · 9 pts	18	15▲3	2W 3D 3L	-13		— Neutral 3.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
8	Austin MLS · 7 pts	22	25▼3	1W 4D 3L	-7		— Neutral 1.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
9	Houston Dynamo MLS · 9 pts	19	19	3W 0D 4L	-7		— Neutral 0.6 points above expected.
10	DC United MLS · 8 pts	21	21	2W 2D 4L	-6		— Neutral 1.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
11	New York Red Bulls MLS · 11 pts	17	10▲7	3W 2D 3L	-6		— Neutral 1.2 points above expected.
12	Portland Timbers MLS · 7 pts	23	26▼3	2W 1D 5L	-4		— Neutral 0.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
13	San Diego MLS · 11 pts	16	12▲4	3W 2D 3L	-4		— Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 0.9 extra pts.
14	CF Montreal MLS · 6 pts	26	28▼2	2W 0D 6L	-3		— Neutral 3.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
15	New York City FC MLS · 11 pts	15	16▼1	3W 2D 3L	-1		— Neutral 1.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
16	FC Dallas MLS · 13 pts	11	4▲7	3W 4D 1L	-1		— Neutral 0.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way.
17	Sporting Kansas City MLS · 4 pts	30	30	1W 1D 6L	-1		— Neutral 1.1 points above expected.
18	Toronto FC MLS · 12 pts	13	13	3W 3D 2L	+1		— Neutral 1.4 points above expected.
19	Vancouver Whitecaps MLS · 21 pts	1	1	7W 0D 1L	+1		— Neutral 1.5 points above expected.
20	Real Salt Lake MLS · 16 pts	5	3▲2	5W 1D 1L	+3		— Neutral 3.2 points above expected.
21	Chicago Fire MLS · 14 pts	8	5▲3	4W 2D 2L	+4		— Neutral 1.4 points above expected.
22	Minnesota United FC MLS · 14 pts	10	6▲4	4W 2D 2L	+5		— Neutral 3.3 points above expected.
23	Colorado Rapids MLS · 12 pts	12	18▼6	4W 0D 4L	+7		— Neutral Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 0.1 extra pts.
24	Inter Miami MLS · 15 pts	7	11▼4	4W 3D 1L	+15		— Neutral 3.8 points above expected.
↑ Lucky
25	Los Angeles FC MLS · 16 pts	4	7▼3	5W 1D 2L	+16		↑ Lucky 3.0 points above expected.
26	San Jose Earthquakes MLS · 21 pts	2	2	7W 0D 1L	+20		↑ Lucky 5.2 points above expected.
27	Seattle Sounders MLS · 16 pts	6	14▼8	5W 1D 1L	+21		↑ Lucky 6.2 points above expected.
28	Charlotte MLS · 14 pts	9	20▼11	4W 2D 2L	+23		↑ Lucky 3.1 points above expected.
29	New England Revolution MLS · 12 pts	14	29▼15	4W 0D 3L	+28		↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.2 extra pts.
30	Nashville SC MLS · 19 pts	3	9▼6	6W 1D 1L	+32		↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.9 extra pts.