Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
MLS is uniquely volatile. Salary caps, mid-season roster turnover, altitude differences, and coast-to-coast travel create variance that European leagues don't have. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures it through the same 7-signal model used for the top 5 European leagues, with xPTS delta from Poisson simulation at 25%, finishing luck at 18%, and schedule-adjusted opponent strength providing extra signal in a league where fixture congestion varies wildly between teams. From Inter Miami and LAFC to the Supporters' Shield race and the playoff push, the CLS separates the real contenders from the teams that will fade when regression arrives.
| RK | Team | Pos | LAS | Record | CLS | Trend | Highlight | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ Unlucky | ||||||||
| 1 |  Philadelphia Union MLS · 6 pts | 29 | 29 | 1W 3D 8L | -39 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (10 from 15.26 xG). 9.8 pts below expected. | ||
| 2 |  St. Louis City MLS · 9 pts | 28 | 23▲5 | 2W 3D 6L | -38 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (10 from 15.64 xG). 7.3 pts below expected. | ||
| 3 |  Atlanta United FC MLS · 10 pts | 26 | 26 | 3W 1D 8L | -15 | ↓ Unlucky 3.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 4 |  Sporting Kansas City MLS · 5 pts | 30 | 30 | 1W 2D 8L | -15 | ↓ Unlucky 0.2 points above expected. | ||
| — Neutral | ||||||||
| 5 |  Toronto FC MLS · 14 pts | 19 | 16▲3 | 3W 5D 4L | -14 | — Neutral 1.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 6 |  Columbus Crew MLS · 12 pts | 24 | 21▲3 | 3W 3D 6L | -12 | — Neutral 5.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 7 |  Los Angeles Galaxy MLS · 16 pts | 13 | 10▲3 | 4W 4D 4L | -12 | — Neutral 2.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 8 |  San Diego MLS · 13 pts | 22 | 20▲2 | 3W 4D 5L | -12 | — Neutral 2.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 9 |  Orlando City SC MLS · 10 pts | 27 | 27 | 3W 1D 8L | -12 | — Neutral 0.4 points above expected. | ||
| 10 |  FC Cincinnati MLS · 16 pts | 14 | 11▲3 | 4W 4D 4L | -10 | — Neutral 1.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 11 |  Vancouver Whitecaps MLS · 26 pts | 2 | 1▲1 | 8W 2D 1L | -10 | — Neutral 0.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake MLS · 19 pts | 10 | 6▲4 | 6W 1D 4L | -5 | — Neutral 1.7 points above expected. | ||
| 13 |  DC United MLS · 16 pts | 15 | 15 | 4W 4D 4L | -3 | — Neutral 0.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 14 |  Colorado Rapids MLS · 13 pts | 21 | 22▼1 | 4W 1D 7L | -2 | — Neutral 2.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 15 |  New York Red Bulls MLS · 15 pts | 18 | 17▲1 | 4W 3D 5L | -2 | — Neutral 1.3 points above expected. | ||
| 16 |  CF Montreal MLS · 12 pts | 25 | 25 | 4W 0D 7L | -1 | — Neutral 3.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 17 |  Chicago Fire MLS · 17 pts | 12 | 12 | 5W 2D 4L | -1 | — Neutral 1.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 18 |  FC Dallas MLS · 19 pts | 9 | 9 | 5W 4D 3L | 0 | — Neutral 0.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 19 |  Minnesota United FC MLS · 21 pts | 6 | 3▲3 | 6W 3D 3L | 0 | — Neutral 3.1 points above expected. | ||
| 20 |  Charlotte MLS · 15 pts | 16 | 18▼2 | 4W 3D 5L | +2 | — Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 21 |  New York City FC MLS · 15 pts | 17 | 19▼2 | 4W 3D 5L | +5 | — Neutral 1.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 22 |  Austin MLS · 14 pts | 20 | 24▼4 | 3W 5D 4L | +10 | — Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.5 extra pts. | ||
| 23 |  Inter Miami MLS · 22 pts | 4 | 4 | 6W 4D 2L | +11 | — Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.0 extra pts. | ||
| 24 |  Houston Dynamo MLS · 18 pts | 11 | 14▼3 | 6W 0D 5L | +14 | — Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.3 extra pts. | ||
| ↑ Lucky | ||||||||
| 25 |  Los Angeles FC MLS · 21 pts | 7 | 7 | 6W 3D 3L | +16 | ↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.2 extra pts. | ||
| 26 |  Portland Timbers MLS · 13 pts | 23 | 28▼5 | 4W 1D 6L | +18 | ↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.8 extra pts. | ||
| 27 |  Seattle Sounders MLS · 21 pts | 8 | 8 | 6W 3D 1L | +18 | ↑ Lucky 5.5 points above expected. | ||
| 28 |  San Jose Earthquakes MLS · 29 pts | 1 | 2▼1 | 9W 2D 1L | +25 | ↑ Lucky 7.6 points above expected. | ||
| 29 |  Nashville SC MLS · 24 pts | 3 | 5▼2 | 7W 3D 1L | +36 | ↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 6.2 extra pts. | ||
| ✦ Blessed | ||||||||
| 30 |  New England Revolution MLS · 22 pts | 5 | 13▼8 | 7W 1D 3L | +47 | ✦ Blessed Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.0 extra pts. | ||
How each team's CLS has changed throughout the season
Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).
The CLS combines several signals. Pick one to see which MLS teams are getting robbed (or blessed) on that signal individually.
Actual points vs what xG simulations say they deserve
Philadelphia Union-18.5St. Louis City-13.9Columbus Crew-10.8CF Montreal-8.1Atlanta United FC-6.5New England Revolution+16.4San Jose Earthquakes+13.7Nashville SC+11.1Seattle Sounders+9.8Houston Dynamo+7.8