Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
MLS is uniquely volatile. Salary caps, mid-season roster turnover, altitude differences, and coast-to-coast travel create variance that European leagues don't have. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures it through the same 7-signal model used for the top 5 European leagues, with xPTS delta from Poisson simulation at 25%, finishing luck at 18%, and schedule-adjusted opponent strength providing extra signal in a league where fixture congestion varies wildly between teams. From Inter Miami and LAFC to the Supporters' Shield race and the playoff push, the CLS separates the real contenders from the teams that will fade when regression arrives.
| RK | Team | Pos | LAS | Record | CLS | Trend | Highlight | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ Unlucky | ||||||||
| 1 |  Philadelphia Union MLS · 24 pts | 25 | 18▲7 | 6W 6D 10L | -31 | ↓ Unlucky 8.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 2 |  CF Montreal MLS · 21 pts | 27 | 25▲2 | 5W 6D 11L | -29 | ↓ Unlucky 9.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 3 |  Sporting Kansas City MLS · 15 pts | 30 | 30 | 4W 3D 15L | -28 | ↓ Unlucky 1.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 4 |  Atlanta United FC MLS · 21 pts | 28 | 27▲1 | 6W 3D 13L | -27 | ↓ Unlucky 5.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 5 |  Minnesota United FC MLS · 29 pts | 14 | 10▲4 | 7W 8D 7L | -22 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 6 fewer than xG (30 from 36.17 xG). 5.7 pts below expected. | ||
| 6 |  Los Angeles Galaxy MLS · 26 pts | 19 | 16▲3 | 6W 8D 9L | -19 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (28 from 33.11 xG). 3.9 pts below expected. | ||
| 7 |  St. Louis City MLS · 34 pts | 9 | 4▲5 | 9W 7D 6L | -16 | ↓ Unlucky 1.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 8 |  New York Red Bulls MLS · 26 pts | 20 | 19▲1 | 7W 5D 10L | -16 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 7 fewer than xG (32 from 39.34 xG). 1.5 pts below expected. | ||
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders MLS · 26 pts | 21 | 20▲1 | 7W 5D 9L | -16 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 4 fewer than xG (24 from 27.87 xG). 1.4 pts below expected. | ||
| — Neutral | ||||||||
| 10 |  Columbus Crew MLS · 19 pts | 29 | 29 | 5W 4D 12L | -14 | — Neutral 8.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 11 |  Vancouver Whitecaps MLS · 43 pts | 2 | 1▲1 | 13W 4D 4L | -14 | — Neutral 1.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 12 |  Toronto FC MLS · 25 pts | 23 | 21▲2 | 5W 10D 7L | -14 | — Neutral 0.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 13 |  Real Salt Lake MLS · 28 pts | 17 | 15▲2 | 8W 4D 9L | -12 | — Neutral 0.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 14 |  San Diego MLS · 30 pts | 13 | 13 | 8W 6D 8L | -7 | — Neutral 1.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 15 |  New York City FC MLS · 28 pts | 15 | 17▼2 | 7W 7D 8L | -5 | — Neutral 2.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 16 |  Orlando City SC MLS · 25 pts | 24 | 24 | 7W 4D 11L | -4 | — Neutral Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.2 extra pts. | ||
| 17 |  San Jose Earthquakes MLS · 34 pts | 11 | 6▲5 | 10W 4D 7L | -4 | — Neutral 1.6 points above expected. | ||
| 18 |  DC United MLS · 25 pts | 22 | 26▼4 | 5W 10D 7L | -1 | — Neutral 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 19 |  Colorado Rapids MLS · 31 pts | 12 | 12 | 10W 1D 11L | -1 | — Neutral 0.7 points above expected. | ||
| 20 |  FC Cincinnati MLS · 28 pts | 18 | 22▼4 | 7W 7D 7L | +6 | — Neutral 0.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 21 |  FC Dallas MLS · 34 pts | 10 | 9▲1 | 9W 7D 6L | +7 | — Neutral Scored 10 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 1.3 extra pts. | ||
| 22 |  Chicago Fire MLS · 37 pts | 5 | 5 | 11W 4D 6L | +10 | — Neutral 2.1 points above expected. | ||
| 23 |  Portland Timbers MLS · 28 pts | 16 | 23▼7 | 8W 4D 10L | +13 | — Neutral 0.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| ↑ Lucky | ||||||||
| 24 |  Los Angeles FC MLS · 36 pts | 7 | 8▼1 | 10W 6D 7L | +18 | ↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.1 extra pts. | ||
| 25 |  Austin MLS · 24 pts | 26 | 28▼2 | 6W 6D 10L | +18 | ↑ Lucky Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.7 extra pts. | ||
| 26 |  Inter Miami MLS · 41 pts | 3 | 3 | 12W 5D 4L | +20 | ↑ Lucky Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 7.0 extra pts. | ||
| 27 |  Charlotte MLS · 35 pts | 8 | 14▼6 | 10W 5D 7L | +27 | ↑ Lucky Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.4 extra pts. | ||
| 28 |  New England Revolution MLS · 37 pts | 6 | 11▼5 | 11W 4D 7L | +37 | ↑ Lucky 5.2 points above expected. | ||
| 29 |  Houston Dynamo MLS · 39 pts | 4 | 7▼3 | 12W 3D 7L | +37 | ↑ Lucky Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.1 extra pts. | ||
| ✦ Blessed | ||||||||
| 30 |  Nashville SC MLS · 52 pts | 1 | 2▼1 | 16W 4D 2L | +90 | ✦ Blessed Scored 19 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 21.1 extra pts. | ||
How each team's CLS has changed throughout the season
Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).
The CLS combines several signals. Pick one to see which MLS teams are getting robbed (or blessed) on that signal individually.
Actual points vs what xG simulations say they deserve
CF Montreal-16.8Philadelphia Union-16Columbus Crew-15.6Minnesota United FC-10.5Atlanta United FC-9.2Nashville SC+39.5Houston Dynamo+17.2Inter Miami+12.8New England Revolution+9.5Austin+7