Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
MLS is uniquely volatile. Salary caps, mid-season roster turnover, altitude differences, and coast-to-coast travel create variance that European leagues don't have. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures it through the same 7-signal model used for the top 5 European leagues, with xPTS delta from Poisson simulation at 25%, finishing luck at 18%, and schedule-adjusted opponent strength providing extra signal in a league where fixture congestion varies wildly between teams. From Inter Miami and LAFC to the Supporters' Shield race and the playoff push, the CLS separates the real contenders from the teams that will fade when regression arrives.
| RK | Team | Pos | LAS | Record | CLS | Trend | Highlight | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☠ Cursed | ||||||||
| 1 |  Philadelphia Union MLS · 7 pts | 30 | 28▲2 | 1W 4D 10L | -50 | ☠ Cursed Scored 4 fewer than xG (18 from 21.99 xG). 12.3 pts below expected. | ||
| ↓ Unlucky | ||||||||
| 2 |  St. Louis City MLS · 16 pts | 20 | 17▲3 | 4W 4D 6L | -29 | ↓ Unlucky 4.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 3 |  Atlanta United FC MLS · 11 pts | 28 | 26▲2 | 3W 2D 9L | -23 | ↓ Unlucky 5.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 4 |  Toronto FC MLS · 14 pts | 24 | 21▲3 | 3W 5D 6L | -23 | ↓ Unlucky 3.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 5 |  Los Angeles Galaxy MLS · 20 pts | 15 | 11▲4 | 5W 5D 5L | -15 | ↓ Unlucky 3.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 6 |  Minnesota United FC MLS · 22 pts | 11 | 8▲3 | 6W 4D 5L | -15 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 5 fewer than xG (18 from 22.7 xG). 0.9 pts below expected. | ||
| — Neutral | ||||||||
| 7 |  Sporting Kansas City MLS · 11 pts | 29 | 30▼1 | 3W 2D 9L | -14 | — Neutral 0.1 points above expected. | ||
| 8 |  Orlando City SC MLS · 14 pts | 26 | 24▲2 | 4W 2D 9L | -12 | — Neutral 0.3 points above expected. | ||
| 9 |  CF Montreal MLS · 14 pts | 23 | 25▼2 | 4W 2D 8L | -9 | — Neutral 5.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 10 |  Vancouver Whitecaps MLS · 32 pts | 2 | 1▲1 | 10W 2D 2L | -9 | — Neutral 1.6 points above expected. | ||
| 11 |  San Diego MLS · 17 pts | 19 | 19 | 4W 5D 6L | -8 | — Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 12 |  FC Cincinnati MLS · 20 pts | 16 | 13▲3 | 5W 5D 5L | -7 | — Neutral 1.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids MLS · 16 pts | 22 | 22 | 5W 1D 9L | -3 | — Neutral 2.4 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 14 |  Columbus Crew MLS · 16 pts | 21 | 23▼2 | 4W 4D 7L | -2 | — Neutral 4.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 15 |  DC United MLS · 18 pts | 18 | 20▼2 | 4W 6D 5L | 0 | — Neutral 1.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 16 |  FC Dallas MLS · 25 pts | 7 | 6▲1 | 7W 4D 4L | +1 | — Neutral Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 0.3 extra pts. | ||
| 17 |  New York City FC MLS · 19 pts | 17 | 18▼1 | 5W 4D 6L | +3 | — Neutral 1.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 18 |  Austin MLS · 14 pts | 27 | 27 | 3W 5D 7L | +3 | — Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 0.9 extra pts. | ||
| 19 |  New York Red Bulls MLS · 22 pts | 12 | 12 | 6W 4D 5L | +4 | — Neutral 3.7 points above expected. | ||
| 20 |  Charlotte MLS · 21 pts | 14 | 15▼1 | 6W 3D 6L | +5 | — Neutral 1.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 21 |  Los Angeles FC MLS · 24 pts | 9 | 9 | 7W 3D 5L | +5 | — Neutral 0.5 points above expected. | ||
| 22 |  Real Salt Lake MLS · 26 pts | 6 | 5▲1 | 8W 2D 4L | +8 | — Neutral 4.6 points above expected. | ||
| 23 |  Portland Timbers MLS · 14 pts | 25 | 29▼4 | 4W 2D 8L | +9 | — Neutral 0.8 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 24 |  Seattle Sounders MLS · 24 pts | 10 | 10 | 7W 3D 3L | +10 | — Neutral 4.2 points above expected. | ||
| 25 |  Houston Dynamo MLS · 22 pts | 13 | 14▼1 | 7W 1D 6L | +10 | — Neutral 4.5 points above expected. | ||
| 26 |  Chicago Fire MLS · 26 pts | 5 | 7▼2 | 8W 2D 4L | +11 | — Neutral 2.1 points above expected. | ||
| ↑ Lucky | ||||||||
| 27 |  Inter Miami MLS · 31 pts | 4 | 3▲1 | 9W 4D 2L | +24 | ↑ Lucky Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 6.4 extra pts. | ||
| 28 |  San Jose Earthquakes MLS · 32 pts | 3 | 2▲1 | 10W 2D 3L | +27 | ↑ Lucky Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 8.2 extra pts. | ||
| ✦ Blessed | ||||||||
| 29 |  New England Revolution MLS · 25 pts | 8 | 16▼8 | 8W 1D 5L | +41 | ✦ Blessed Scored 6 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 8.5 extra pts. | ||
| 30 |  Nashville SC MLS · 33 pts | 1 | 4▼3 | 10W 3D 1L | +59 | ✦ Blessed Scored 13 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 12.8 extra pts. | ||
How each team's CLS has changed throughout the season
Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).
The CLS combines several signals. Pick one to see which MLS teams are getting robbed (or blessed) on that signal individually.
Actual points vs what xG simulations say they deserve
Philadelphia Union-22.6Atlanta United FC-9.8CF Montreal-9.7Columbus Crew-9.7St. Louis City-9.2Nashville SC+22.1New England Revolution+14.9San Jose Earthquakes+14.2Inter Miami+10.9Houston Dynamo+7.9