Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
MLS is uniquely volatile. Salary caps, mid-season roster turnover, altitude differences, and coast-to-coast travel create variance that European leagues don't have. The CURSD Luck Score (CLS) captures it through the same 7-signal model used for the top 5 European leagues, with xPTS delta from Poisson simulation at 25%, finishing luck at 18%, and schedule-adjusted opponent strength providing extra signal in a league where fixture congestion varies wildly between teams. From Inter Miami and LAFC to the Supporters' Shield race and the playoff push, the CLS separates the real contenders from the teams that will fade when regression arrives.
| RK | Team | Pos | LAS | Record | CLS | Trend | Highlight | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☠ Cursed | ||||||||
| 1 |  CF Montreal MLS · 25 pts | 29 | 28▲1 | 6W 7D 17L | -46 | ☠ Cursed Scored 5 fewer than xG (36 from 40.72 xG). 12.8 pts below expected. | ||
| 2 |  Sporting Kansas City MLS · 22 pts | 30 | 29▲1 | 6W 4D 20L | -41 | ☠ Cursed 4.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| ↓ Unlucky | ||||||||
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake MLS · 36 pts | 18 | 11▲7 | 10W 6D 14L | -37 | ↓ Unlucky 4.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 4 |  Minnesota United FC MLS · 34 pts | 22 | 17▲5 | 8W 10D 12L | -33 | ↓ Unlucky 9.1 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 5 |  Atlanta United FC MLS · 30 pts | 28 | 26▲2 | 8W 6D 16L | -27 | ↓ Unlucky 7.6 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 6 |  San Diego MLS · 34 pts | 23 | 22▲1 | 8W 10D 12L | -24 | ↓ Unlucky 7.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 7 |  Vancouver Whitecaps MLS · 55 pts | 2 | 1▲1 | 16W 7D 7L | -21 | ↓ Unlucky 2.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 8 |  Toronto FC MLS · 36 pts | 20 | 18▲2 | 8W 12D 10L | -21 | ↓ Unlucky Scored 11 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 0.0 extra pts. | ||
| 9 |  New York City FC MLS · 34 pts | 24 | 23▲1 | 8W 10D 12L | -18 | ↓ Unlucky 5.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| — Neutral | ||||||||
| 10 |  New York Red Bulls MLS · 36 pts | 19 | 21▼2 | 10W 6D 14L | -13 | — Neutral Scored 13 fewer than xG (39 from 51.68 xG). 2.0 pts below expected. | ||
| 11 |  Chicago Fire MLS · 48 pts | 7 | 2▲5 | 14W 6D 10L | -11 | — Neutral 0.4 points above expected. | ||
| 12 |  Columbus Crew MLS · 35 pts | 21 | 24▼3 | 10W 5D 15L | -9 | — Neutral 7.5 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 13 |  FC Cincinnati MLS · 39 pts | 16 | 14▲2 | 10W 9D 11L | -9 | — Neutral 4.0 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 14 |  Colorado Rapids MLS · 39 pts | 17 | 15▲2 | 11W 6D 13L | -8 | — Neutral 2.9 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 15 |  Portland Timbers MLS · 34 pts | 25 | 25 | 9W 7D 14L | -5 | — Neutral 4.3 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 16 |  DC United MLS · 33 pts | 26 | 27▼1 | 7W 12D 11L | -5 | — Neutral 2.2 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 17 |  Philadelphia Union MLS · 46 pts | 11 | 8▲3 | 13W 7D 10L | -3 | — Neutral 3.7 points below expected. Close games going the wrong way. | ||
| 18 |  San Jose Earthquakes MLS · 48 pts | 8 | 6▲2 | 13W 9D 8L | -2 | — Neutral Scored 4 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 3.8 extra pts. | ||
| 19 |  Seattle Sounders MLS · 42 pts | 13 | 12▲1 | 11W 9D 10L | -1 | — Neutral 1.0 points above expected. | ||
| 20 |  Los Angeles Galaxy MLS · 40 pts | 15 | 19▼4 | 10W 10D 11L | +3 | — Neutral 1.5 points above expected. | ||
| 21 |  Orlando City SC MLS · 41 pts | 14 | 16▼2 | 12W 5D 13L | +6 | — Neutral Scored 17 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 6.9 extra pts. | ||
| 22 |  St. Louis City MLS · 51 pts | 5 | 5 | 14W 9D 7L | +12 | — Neutral Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 2.6 extra pts. | ||
| ↑ Lucky | ||||||||
| 23 |  Los Angeles FC MLS · 46 pts | 12 | 10▲2 | 12W 10D 9L | +16 | ↑ Lucky 0.4 points above expected. | ||
| 24 |  FC Dallas MLS · 51 pts | 6 | 7▼1 | 14W 9D 7L | +23 | ↑ Lucky Scored 11 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 6.5 extra pts. | ||
| 25 |  Austin MLS · 31 pts | 27 | 30▼3 | 7W 10D 13L | +27 | ↑ Lucky Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 4.5 extra pts. | ||
| 26 |  Charlotte MLS · 47 pts | 9 | 13▼4 | 13W 8D 9L | +32 | ↑ Lucky Scored 9 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 7.2 extra pts. | ||
| 27 |  Inter Miami MLS · 55 pts | 3 | 4▼1 | 15W 10D 5L | +32 | ↑ Lucky Scored 18 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 10.6 extra pts. | ||
| ✦ Blessed | ||||||||
| 28 |  New England Revolution MLS · 52 pts | 4 | 9▼5 | 16W 4D 10L | +41 | ✦ Blessed Scored 5 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.4 extra pts. | ||
| 29 |  Houston Dynamo MLS · 47 pts | 10 | 20▼10 | 13W 8D 9L | +45 | ✦ Blessed Scored 7 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 9.0 extra pts. | ||
| 30 |  Nashville SC MLS · 67 pts | 1 | 3▼2 | 20W 7D 3L | +96 | ✦ Blessed Scored 19 more than xG. Clinical finishing earning 22.6 extra pts. | ||
How each team's CLS has changed throughout the season
Above zero = lucky. Below zero = unlucky. Scale: -100 (cursed) to +100 (blessed).
The CLS combines several signals. Pick one to see which MLS teams are getting robbed (or blessed) on that signal individually.
Actual points vs what xG simulations say they deserve
CF Montreal-22.6Minnesota United FC-16.3San Diego-13.7Atlanta United FC-13.6Columbus Crew-13.2Nashville SC+39.1Inter Miami+18.2New England Revolution+15.9Houston Dynamo+15.4Charlotte+12