Season2026
CHI

Chicago Fire CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

+11
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Chicago Fire are getting roughly what they deserve. 26 points vs 23.93 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 23.93
27
Goals Scored
xG: 27.34
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 17.98
2.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-05-03 · vs FC Cincinnati · at home
2-3
Lost at home against FC Cincinnati

A defeat that defied the run of play. Chicago Fire created 4.47 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. FC Cincinnati generated just 1.58 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Chicago Fire. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'H. Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire
24'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati
28'H. Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire (assist: P. Zinckernagel)
31'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: K. Mboma)
56'Kyle Smith (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
90'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati
4.47
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 4.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 4.47-1.58
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs DC United · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.93-1.61
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.84-1.18

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2026-05-16 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.08-0.96
MW14 · 2026-05-24 · vs Toronto FC · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.77-1.4
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Nashville SC · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.18-0.79

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8.4
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 27.3 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 18.0 xGA opponents generated
+4.1
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (90 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chicago Fire are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available