Season2026
CHI

Chicago Fire CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-11
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Chicago Fire are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 47.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 47.6
52
Goals Scored
xG: 51.8
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.36
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-05-03 · vs FC Cincinnati · at home
2-3
Lost at home against FC Cincinnati

A defeat that defied the run of play. Chicago Fire created 4.47 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. FC Cincinnati generated just 1.58 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Chicago Fire. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'H. Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire
24'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati
28'H. Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire (assist: P. Zinckernagel)
31'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: K. Mboma)
56'Kyle Smith (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
90+1'Hugo Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire
90'Evander scores for FC Cincinnati
4.47
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 4.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 4.47-1.58
MW30 · 2026-10-17 · vs New England Revolution · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.02-0.27
MW24 · 2026-09-13 · vs New England Revolution · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.92-1.53

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-10-10 · vs New York City FC · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.5
MW19 · 2026-08-19 · vs Orlando City SC · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.3-1.77
MW26 · 2026-09-26 · vs Charlotte · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.11-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 51.8 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-6.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (212 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.1
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.4 xPTS gap)
+0.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 39.4 xGA opponents generated
+0.4
Total CLS-11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chicago Fire are right where they belong. Their CLS of -11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available