CHI

Chicago Fire CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+4
CLS Score

Chicago Fire are getting roughly what they deserve. 14 points vs 12.62 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 12.62
12
Goals Scored
xG: 14.23
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.5
1.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs DC United · at home
1-2
Lost at home against DC United

One of those games where nothing went right. Chicago Fire generated 1.93 xG, comfortably more than the 1.61 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Chicago Fire. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
81'H. Cuypers scores for Chicago Fire
84'M. Peltola scores for DC United
90'T. Baribo scores for DC United
1.93
xG Created
1.61
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs DC United · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.93-1.61
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.84-1.18
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.6-1.2.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.62-1.17

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Nashville SC · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.18-0.79
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 2.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.34-1.68
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Philadelphia Union · Away+0.7 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.5-0.8.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.52-0.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 14.2 xG - wasting chances
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 11.5 xGA opponents generated
+4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.3
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (46 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.9
Total CLS+4

Rank Per Signal

Where Chicago Fire ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Discipline
1
30
-1.4
7
Finishing Luck
1
30
-5
11
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.9
19
xPTS Gap
1
30
+2.3
21
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+1.6
24
Schedule Strength
1
30
+3.3
27
Defensive Luck
1
30
+4.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chicago Fire are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available