Season2026
COL

Columbus Crew CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

-2
CLS Score
14th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Columbus Crew are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 20.58 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 20.58
21
Goals Scored
xG: 17.98
23
Goals Conceded
xGA: 17.28
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Portland Timbers · away
2-3
Lost away against Portland Timbers

One of those games where nothing went right. Columbus Crew generated 1.25 xG, comfortably more than the 0.94 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Columbus Crew. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'W. Abou Ali scores for Columbus Crew
14'F. Mora scores for Portland Timbers (assist: G. Guerra)
20'Antony scores for Portland Timbers (assist: C. Bassett)
44'D. Rossi scores for Columbus Crew (assist: W. Abou Ali)
88'A. Lassiter scores for Portland Timbers (assist: K. Kelsy)
1.25
xG Created
0.94
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.25-0.94
MW12 · 2026-05-10 · vs New York City FC · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.07-1.03
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.15-1.49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.97-0.76
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.46-1.24
MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.69-1.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (59 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 17.3 xGA opponents generated
-3.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 18.0 xG - clinical finishing
+1.2
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Columbus Crew are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available