COL

Columbus Crew CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-15
CLS Score

Columbus Crew are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 11.72 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 11.72
10
Goals Scored
xG: 10.06
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.2
5.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Portland Timbers · away
2-3
Lost away against Portland Timbers

One of those games where nothing went right. Columbus Crew generated 1.25 xG, comfortably more than the 0.94 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Columbus Crew. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'W. Abou Ali scores for Columbus Crew
14'F. Mora scores for Portland Timbers (assist: G. Guerra)
20'Antony scores for Portland Timbers (assist: C. Bassett)
44'D. Rossi scores for Columbus Crew (assist: W. Abou Ali)
88'A. Lassiter scores for Portland Timbers (assist: K. Kelsy)
1.25
xG Created
0.94
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.25-0.94
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.15-1.49
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.95-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.46-1.24
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Nashville SC · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.2-1.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.22-1.16
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+-0.8 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.2-0.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.17-0.62

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-12.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (26 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 8.2 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 10.1 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-1.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.8
Total CLS-15

Rank Per Signal

Where Columbus Crew ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
xPTS Gap
1
30
-12.2
2
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-4.4
10
Defensive Luck
1
30
-2.8
11
Finishing Luck
1
30
-1.8
17
Schedule Strength
1
30
+0.8
24
Discipline
1
30
+1.2
26
Injury Burden
1
30
+4.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Columbus Crew are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available