Season2026
COL

Columbus Crew CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-9
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Columbus Crew are getting roughly what they deserve. 35 points vs 42.49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

35
Points
Expected: 42.49
46
Goals Scored
xG: 39.28
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 32.75
7.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 28 · 2026-10-10 · vs Orlando City SC · away
2-3
Lost away against Orlando City SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Columbus Crew created 4.28 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Columbus Crew. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
1'H. Sarajian scores for Orlando City SC (assist: A. Griezmann)
7'T. Habroune scores for Columbus Crew (assist: S. Rodriguez)
16'A. Griezmann scores for Orlando City SC
53'B. Mendez scores for Columbus Crew (assist: T. Habroune)
89'I. Angulo scores for Orlando City SC (assist: M. Ojeda)
4.28
xG Created
2.44
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-10-10 · vs Orlando City SC · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 4.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 4.28-2.44
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.25-0.94
MW16 · 2026-07-22 · vs New York City FC · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.67-1.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-10-18 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.36-1.98
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.97-0.76
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.46-1.24

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 14 more goals than the 32.8 xGA opponents generated
-7.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (136 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 39.3 xG - clinical finishing
+2.2
Total CLS-9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Columbus Crew are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available