Cremonese

Cremonese CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-19
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Cremonese can't catch a break. 34 points when the data says they deserve closer to 39.43? 20 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-7.7 CLS impact). 5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 39.43
32
Goals Scored
xG: 35.36
57
Goals Conceded
xGA: 57.78
5.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bologna

One of those games where nothing went right. Cremonese generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 1.14 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Cremonese. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'Joao Mario scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
16'J. Rowe scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
90+4'Youssef Maleh (Cremonese) - Red Card
90+6'Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) - Red Card
90'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese
1.42
xG Created
1.14
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-1.14
MW11 · 2025-11-07 · vs Pisa · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.97-0.92
MW29 · 2026-03-16 · vs Fiorentina · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.43-1.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.21-1.92
MW13 · 2025-12-01 · vs Bologna · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.13-2.72
MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Udinese · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.45-0.35

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 35.4 xG - wasting chances
-2.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 more goals than the 57.8 xGA opponents generated
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (149 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS-19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -19, Cremonese are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available