Cremonese

Cremonese Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-20
Luck Index Score

Cremonese can't catch a break. 27 points when the data says they deserve closer to 31.46? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

27
Points
Expected: 31.46
26
Goals Scored
xG: 30.78
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.69
4.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bologna

One of those games where nothing went right. Cremonese generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 1.14 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Cremonese. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'Joao Mario scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
16'J. Rowe scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
90+4'Youssef Maleh (Cremonese) - Red Card
90+6'Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) - Red Card
90'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese
1.42
xG Created
1.14
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-1.14
MW11 · 2025-11-07 · vs Pisa · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.97-0.92
MW29 · 2026-03-16 · vs Fiorentina · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.43-1.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.21-1.92
MW13 · 2025-12-01 · vs Bologna · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.13-2.72
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Genoa · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.39-1.31

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 30.8 xG - wasting chances
-7.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 49.7 xGA opponents generated
+3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.2
Total Luck Index-20

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Cremonese are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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