Cremonese

Cremonese CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-12
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Cremonese are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 38.82 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 38.82
31
Goals Scored
xG: 34.3
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.31
4.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bologna

One of those games where nothing went right. Cremonese generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 1.14 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Cremonese. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'Joao Mario scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
16'J. Rowe scores for Bologna (assist: J. Miranda)
90+4'Youssef Maleh (Cremonese) - Red Card
90+6'Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) - Red Card
90'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese
1.42
xG Created
1.14
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Bologna · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-1.14
MW11 · 2025-11-07 · vs Pisa · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.97-0.92
MW29 · 2026-03-16 · vs Fiorentina · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.43-1.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs AC Milan · Away+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.21-1.92
MW13 · 2025-12-01 · vs Bologna · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.13-2.72
MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Udinese · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.45-0.35

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 34.3 xG - wasting chances
-2.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 55.3 xGA opponents generated
+0.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (145 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
0
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cremonese are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-24
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