Season2026
HOU

Houston Dynamo CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

+45
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the mls

Houston Dynamo have been living on borrowed time. 47 points from 37.97 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+15.4 CLS impact). 9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 37.97
41
Goals Scored
xG: 34.41
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.7
9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Real Salt Lake · away
0-3
Lost away against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. Houston Dynamo generated 1.39 xG, comfortably more than the 0.95 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Houston Dynamo. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
49'D. Holmes scores for Real Salt Lake
57'Z. Gozo scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: D. Yedlin)
64'Z. Gozo scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: S. Spierings)
1.39
xG Created
0.95
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.39-0.95
MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.74-1.36
MW21 · 2026-08-23 · vs St. Louis City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.66-1.65

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-15 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+2.3 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.2-2.37
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.66-1.42
MW11 · 2026-05-11 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away+2.0 pts
Won 4-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.81-1.21

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (136 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 fewer goals than the 39.7 xGA opponents generated
+4.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 34.4 xG - clinical finishing
+2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS+45

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +45, Houston Dynamo are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available