Season2026
HOU

Houston Dynamo CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

+14
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Houston Dynamo are getting roughly what they deserve. 18 points vs 13.68 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

18
Points
Expected: 13.68
17
Goals Scored
xG: 13.16
19
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.18
4.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · away
3-4
Lost away against FC Dallas

One of those games where nothing went right. Houston Dynamo generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 1.36 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Houston Dynamo. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: S. Moore)
14'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: H. Johansson)
29'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo
31'E. Sviatchenko scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
33'L. Ennali scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
54'D. Holmes scores for FC Dallas
68'E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) - Red Card
86'P. Musa scores for FC Dallas (assist: J. Valiente)
1.74
xG Created
1.36
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.74-1.36
MW6 · 2026-04-12 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-6 | xG: 2.61-2.72
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs Austin · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.66-0.93

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-15 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+2.3 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.2-2.37
MW11 · 2026-05-11 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 4-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.86-0.94
MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.5-0.44

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 13.2 xG - clinical finishing
+3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 15.2 xGA opponents generated
-2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (62 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.2
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Houston Dynamo are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available