Season2026
HOU

Houston Dynamo CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 14 matches played · View mls standings →

+10
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Houston Dynamo are getting roughly what they deserve. 22 points vs 17.46 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Points
Expected: 17.46
19
Goals Scored
xG: 16.56
23
Goals Conceded
xGA: 19.34
4.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Real Salt Lake · away
0-3
Lost away against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. Houston Dynamo generated 1.39 xG, comfortably more than the 0.95 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Houston Dynamo. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
49'D. Holmes scores for Real Salt Lake
57'Z. Gozo scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: D. Yedlin)
64'Z. Gozo scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: S. Spierings)
1.39
xG Created
0.95
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.39-0.95
MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.74-1.36
MW6 · 2026-04-12 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-6 | xG: 2.61-2.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-15 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+2.3 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.2-2.37
MW11 · 2026-05-11 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away+2.0 pts
Won 4-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0.81-1.21
MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.5-0.44

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (72 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 19.3 xGA opponents generated
-1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 16.6 xG - clinical finishing
+0.2
Total CLS+10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|24 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Houston Dynamo are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available