HOU

Houston Dynamo CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-7
CLS Score

Houston Dynamo are getting roughly what they deserve. 9 points vs 8.37 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

9
Points
Expected: 8.37
11
Goals Scored
xG: 9.62
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.72
0.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · away
3-4
Lost away against FC Dallas

One of those games where nothing went right. Houston Dynamo generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 1.36 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Houston Dynamo. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: S. Moore)
14'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: H. Johansson)
29'Guilherme scores for Houston Dynamo
31'E. Sviatchenko scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
33'L. Ennali scores for Houston Dynamo (assist: Guilherme)
54'D. Holmes scores for FC Dallas
68'E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) - Red Card
86'P. Musa scores for FC Dallas (assist: J. Valiente)
1.74
xG Created
1.36
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Dallas · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.74-1.36
MW6 · 2026-04-12 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-6 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-6 | xG: 2.61-2.72
MW5 · 2026-04-05 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.94-1.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-15 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+2.3 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.2-2.37
MW7 · 2026-04-18 · vs Orlando City SC · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.26-1.2
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.18-0.84

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 11.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2
xPTS Gap
0.6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 9.6 xG - clinical finishing
+0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (44 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Total CLS-7

Rank Per Signal

Where Houston Dynamo ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Discipline
1
30
-2
7
Defensive Luck
1
30
-3.3
10
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.8
10
Schedule Strength
1
30
-2
15
xPTS Gap
1
30
+1
15
Finishing Luck
1
30
+0.6
15
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Houston Dynamo are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available