Season2026
INT

Inter Miami CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 26 matches played · View mls standings →

+13
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Inter Miami are getting roughly what they deserve. 45 points vs 38.88 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 38.88
62
Goals Scored
xG: 51.44
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.6
6.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-08-22 · vs Toronto FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Toronto FC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Inter Miami generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Toronto FC generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Inter Miami. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'J. Sargent scores for Toronto FC (assist: D. Salloi)
62'D. Etienne scores for Toronto FC
82'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: R. de Paul)
1.83
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-08-22 · vs Toronto FC · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-0.51
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs Orlando City SC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.14-2.26
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs New England Revolution · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 3-1.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs DC United · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.98-1.59
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.18-1.69
MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.81-2.04

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+10.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 51.4 xG - clinical finishing
+9.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 45.6 xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (167 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.2
Total CLS+13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|12 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Inter Miami are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available