Inter

Inter CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+51
CLS Score

Inter have been living on borrowed time. 78 points from 64.94 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

78
Points
Expected: 64.94
78
Goals Scored
xG: 62.98
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 28.86
13.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-23 · vs AC Milan · at home
0-1
Lost at home against AC Milan

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Inter generated 1.92 xG, comfortably more than the 1.01 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Inter. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'C. Pulisic scores for AC Milan
1.92
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-23 · vs AC Milan · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.92-1.01
MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Udinese · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.21
MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Napoli · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.89-1.25

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Como · Away+2.7 pts
Won 4-3 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.88-3.12
MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs AS Roma · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.35
MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Pisa · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-0 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2-1.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 15 more goals than their 63.0 xG - clinical finishing
+26.8
xPTS Gap
13 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+19.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+8.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (97 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.3
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 28.9 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Total CLS+51

Rank Per Signal

Where Inter ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Schedule Strength
1
20
-10.8
7
Defensive Luck
1
20
-1.4
13
Discipline
1
20
+1.3
16
Injury Burden
1
20
+6.3
19
xPTS Gap
1
20
+19.9
19
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+8.9
20
Finishing Luck
1
20
+26.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +51, Inter are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. Easier opponents might soften the landing, but the drop is still expected.

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