Inter Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+45

Luck Index Score

Inter have been living on borrowed time. 72 points from 62.09 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 62.09

Goals Scored

xG: 59.87

Goals Conceded

xGA: 25.33

9.9

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Juventus · away

3-4

Lost away against Juventus

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Inter. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

54'C. Pulisic scores for AC Milan

0.96

xG Created

0.68

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-23 · vs AC Milan · Home-2.0 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.92-1.01

MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Udinese · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.21

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Napoli · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.89-1.25

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs AS Roma · Away+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.35

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Pisa · Away+1.4 pts

Won 2-0 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 2-1.72

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Genoa · Away+1.4 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.27-0.97

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 11 more goals than their 59.9 xG - clinical finishing

+25.2

xPTS Gap

10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+17

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-11.3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+7.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (92 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+6.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0.7 more goals than the 25.3 xGA opponents generated

-2

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.9

Total Luck Index+45

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Decline

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At +45, Inter are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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