Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles Galaxy CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 23 matches played · View mls standings →

-19
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles Galaxy can't catch a break. 26 points when the data says they deserve closer to 29.91? 9 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-10.6 CLS impact). Scored 5 fewer goals than their 33.1 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 29.91
28
Goals Scored
xG: 33.11
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 36.19
3.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Sporting Kansas City

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles Galaxy created 2.03 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sporting Kansas City generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Los Angeles Galaxy. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'D. Joveljic scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
74'L. Johnsen scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: S. Afrifa)
82'M. Reus scores for Los Angeles Galaxy
2.03
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-0.73
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.41
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.76-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-08-20 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.35-2.36
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Austin · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-0.68
MW14 · 2026-05-17 · vs Seattle Sounders · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.24-1.53

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 33.1 xG - wasting chances
-10.6
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 36.2 xGA opponents generated
+3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (150 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Total CLS-19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|15 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -19, Los Angeles Galaxy are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available