Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles Galaxy CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

-15
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles Galaxy are getting roughly what they deserve. 20 points vs 23.61 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-7.1 CLS impact). Scored 2 fewer goals than their 24.3 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

20
Points
Expected: 23.61
22
Goals Scored
xG: 24.31
22
Goals Conceded
xGA: 18.88
3.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Sporting Kansas City

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles Galaxy created 2.03 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sporting Kansas City generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Los Angeles Galaxy. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'D. Joveljic scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
74'L. Johnsen scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: S. Afrifa)
82'M. Reus scores for Los Angeles Galaxy
2.03
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-0.73
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.41
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.76-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Austin · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-0.68
MW14 · 2026-05-17 · vs Seattle Sounders · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.24-1.53
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.1-1.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.14-1.06

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 24.3 xG - wasting chances
-7.1
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (86 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 18.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Los Angeles Galaxy are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available