Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles Galaxy CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-12
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles Galaxy are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 18.76 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 18.76
18
Goals Scored
xG: 18.66
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 14.39
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Sporting Kansas City

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles Galaxy created 2.03 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sporting Kansas City generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Los Angeles Galaxy. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'D. Joveljic scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
74'L. Johnsen scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: S. Afrifa)
82'M. Reus scores for Los Angeles Galaxy
2.03
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-0.73
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.41
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.76-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Austin · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-0.68
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.1-1.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.14-1.06
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home+0.8 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.6-1.2.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.61-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.7 fewer goals than their 18.7 xG - wasting chances
-3.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (78 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 14.4 xGA opponents generated
-1.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles Galaxy are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available