Season2026
LOS

Los Angeles Galaxy CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 31 matches played · View mls standings →

+3
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Los Angeles Galaxy are getting roughly what they deserve. 40 points vs 38.48 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

40
Points
Expected: 38.48
43
Goals Scored
xG: 43.59
52
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.66
1.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Sporting Kansas City

A defeat that defied the run of play. Los Angeles Galaxy created 2.03 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sporting Kansas City generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Los Angeles Galaxy. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'D. Joveljic scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: M. Garcia)
74'L. Johnsen scores for Sporting Kansas City (assist: S. Afrifa)
82'M. Reus scores for Los Angeles Galaxy
2.03
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-0.73
MW6 · 2026-04-05 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.41
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Portland Timbers · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.76-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-09-06 · vs New England Revolution · Home+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.47-2.64
MW21 · 2026-08-20 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.35-2.36
MW28 · 2026-09-27 · vs Colorado Rapids · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG - wasting chances
-9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 50.7 xGA opponents generated
+3.8
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (182 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Los Angeles Galaxy are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available