Season2026
PHI

Philadelphia Union CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 15 matches played · View mls standings →

-50
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Philadelphia Union: 7 points from 19 expected, a gap of 12.3. Finishing has cost them: 4 fewer goals than their 22.0 xG should produce. Defensively, 5 more goals conceded than the 25.1 xGA opponents generated. 10 losses, 4 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-22.6 CLS impact). 12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 19.31
18
Goals Scored
xG: 21.99
30
Goals Conceded
xGA: 25.07
12.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Philadelphia Union. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: T. Werner)
1.08
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.75
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-1.46
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.27-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-0.96
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Toronto FC · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 3-3 away. xG: 0.8-1.4.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 0.83-1.4
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-2.5.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-2.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-22.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-10.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 22.0 xG - wasting chances
-10
Injury Burden
High injury burden (93 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 25.1 xGA opponents generated
-2.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS-50

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|23 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Philadelphia Union are deeply cursed at -50. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available