Season2026
PHI

Philadelphia Union CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-3
CLS Score
17th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Philadelphia Union are getting roughly what they deserve. 46 points vs 49.69 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Points
Expected: 49.69
61
Goals Scored
xG: 57.19
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.98
3.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Philadelphia Union. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: T. Werner)
1.08
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.75
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-1.46
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.27-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-09-20 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Away+2.0 pts
Won 4-3 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.65-1.01
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-0.96
MW19 · 2026-08-16 · vs New York City FC · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.39-2.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (139 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.8
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 57.2 xG - wasting chances
-1.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 42.0 xGA opponents generated
-0.8
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Philadelphia Union are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available