Season2026
PHI

Philadelphia Union CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-39
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Philadelphia Union can't catch a break. 6 points when the data says they deserve closer to 15.75? 8 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-18.5 CLS impact). 10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 15.75
10
Goals Scored
xG: 15.26
19
Goals Conceded
xGA: 16.69
9.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Philadelphia Union. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: T. Werner)
1.08
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.75
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-1.46
MW12 · 2026-05-09 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.27-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-0.96
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Toronto FC · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 3-3 away. xG: 0.8-1.4.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 0.83-1.4
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-2.5.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-2.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-18.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 15.3 xG - wasting chances
-11
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-8.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 16.7 xGA opponents generated
-0.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (67 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.2
Total CLS-39

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -39, Philadelphia Union are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 10 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available