PHI

Philadelphia Union CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-22
CLS Score

Philadelphia Union can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 10.14? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 10.14
6
Goals Scored
xG: 10.79
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.49
6.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · at home
0-1
Lost at home against San Jose Earthquakes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Philadelphia Union. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes (assist: T. Werner)
1.08
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.75
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Charlotte · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-1.46
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.24-2.58

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs CF Montreal · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-0.96
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs Chicago Fire · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.8-2.5.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.85-2.52
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs DC United · Home+-0.8 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.3-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.27-0.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-12.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 10.8 xG - wasting chances
-9.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.9
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 12.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (45 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-22

Rank Per Signal

Where Philadelphia Union ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
xPTS Gap
1
30
-12.8
1
Finishing Luck
1
30
-9.8
1
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-5.9
11
Discipline
1
30
-0.4
14
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.7
18
Defensive Luck
1
30
+1.5
29
Schedule Strength
1
30
+6.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Philadelphia Union are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available