Pisa

Pisa Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-78
Luck Index Score

Pisa are the definition of "we deserved more." With 18 points from 32.93 expected, they've been robbed this season. 12 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 8 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

18
Points
Expected: 32.93
23
Goals Scored
xG: 31.08
55
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.17
14.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Napoli · away
2-3
Lost away against Napoli

A defeat that defied the run of play. Pisa created 2.61 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Napoli generated just 1.08 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Pisa. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'B. Gilmour scores for Napoli
60'M. Nzola scores for Pisa
73'L. Spinazzola scores for Napoli (assist: S. Lobotka)
82'L. Lucca scores for Napoli (assist: S. McTominay)
90'Lorran scores for Pisa (assist: S. Angori)
2.61
xG Created
1.08
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Napoli · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.61-1.08
MW14 · 2025-12-08 · vs Parma · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.18
MW19 · 2026-01-06 · vs Como · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.56-1.73

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-07 · vs Cremonese · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.92-0.97
MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs Cagliari · Home+0.9 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 2.5-1.2.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.47-1.18
MW1 · 2025-08-24 · vs Atalanta · Away+0.5 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.6-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.63-1.92

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
15 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-25.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 fewer goals than their 31.1 xG - wasting chances
-14.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (152 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 50.2 xGA opponents generated
-6.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.3
Total Luck Index-78

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pisa are deeply cursed at -78. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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