Pisa

Pisa CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-75
CLS Score

Pisa: 18 points from 35 expected, a gap of 17.2. Finishing has cost them: 9 fewer goals than their 33.5 xG should produce. Defensively, 7 more goals conceded than the 53.4 xGA opponents generated. 19 losses, 12 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

18
Points
Expected: 35.15
24
Goals Scored
xG: 33.47
60
Goals Conceded
xGA: 53.35
17.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Napoli · away
2-3
Lost away against Napoli

A defeat that defied the run of play. Pisa created 2.61 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Napoli generated just 1.08 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Pisa. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'B. Gilmour scores for Napoli
60'M. Nzola scores for Pisa
73'L. Spinazzola scores for Napoli (assist: S. Lobotka)
82'L. Lucca scores for Napoli (assist: S. McTominay)
90'Lorran scores for Pisa (assist: S. Angori)
2.61
xG Created
1.08
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Napoli · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.61-1.08
MW14 · 2025-12-08 · vs Parma · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.18
MW19 · 2026-01-06 · vs Como · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.56-1.73

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-07 · vs Cremonese · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.92-0.97
MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs Cagliari · Home+0.9 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 2.5-1.2.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.47-1.18
MW1 · 2025-08-24 · vs Atalanta · Away+0.5 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.6-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.63-1.92

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
17 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-26.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 fewer goals than their 33.5 xG - wasting chances
-13.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-9.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 53.4 xGA opponents generated
-8.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (151 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.4
Total CLS-75

Rank Per Signal

Where Pisa ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
xPTS Gap
1
20
-26.5
2
Finishing Luck
1
20
-13.8
2
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-9.4
3
Defensive Luck
1
20
-8.3
5
Schedule Strength
1
20
-7.8
6
Discipline
1
20
-2.4
6
Injury Burden
1
20
-6.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pisa are deeply cursed at -75. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.

Next Matches
04-25
A
Parma
Bet
05-01
H
Lecce
Bet
05-10
A
Cremonese
Bet
05-17
H
Napoli
Bet
05-24
A
Lazio
Bet