Season2025-26
ROD

Rodez CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 1 match played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+22
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Rodez have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Injury Burden (+17.6 CLS impact). Low injury burden (12 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 1.01
3
Goals Scored
xG: 0
2
Goals Conceded
xGA: 0
2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-05-12 · vs RED Star FC 93 · away
3-2
Won away against RED Star FC 93

One of those games where nothing went right. RED Star FC 93 created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Rodez. They got 3. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'K. Cabral scores for RED Star FC 93 (assist: D. Durand)
29'I. Balde scores for Rodez (assist: T. Arconte)
61'J. Escartin scores for RED Star FC 93 (assist: K. Cabral)
67'M. Magnin scores for Rodez (assist: N. Galves)
69'W. Younoussa scores for Rodez
90+6'Giovanni Haag (RED Star FC 93) - Red Card
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-05-12 · vs RED Star FC 93 · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-05-12 · vs RED Star FC 93 · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (12 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+17.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-16.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+15.5
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their ? xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the ? xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS+22

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rodez are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available