SAI

Saint Etienne CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 2 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+27
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 21 in the Ligue 1

Saint Etienne have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+24.8 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Points
Expected: 2.02
1
Goals Scored
xG: 0
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 0
1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-05-29 · vs Nice · away
1-4
Lost away against Nice

One of those games where nothing went right. Nice created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 4 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Saint Etienne. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
62'J. Clauss scores for Nice
79'Z. Davitashvili scores for Saint Etienne
81'K. Boudache scores for Nice
87'E. Wahi scores for Nice (assist: T. Louchet)
90'E. Wahi scores for Nice (assist: S. Diop)
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-05-29 · vs Nice · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-05-26 · vs Nice · Home-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-05-26 · vs Nice · Home+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
MW2 · 2026-05-29 · vs Nice · Away+-1.0 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+24.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (46 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+11.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-7.6
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their ? xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the ? xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS+27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Saint Etienne are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available