Season2026
ST.

St. Louis City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

+12
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the mls

St. Louis City are getting roughly what they deserve. 51 points vs 48.39 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

51
Points
Expected: 48.39
56
Goals Scored
xG: 46.87
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.47
2.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · away
0-2
Lost away against Austin

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. St. Louis City created 3.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for St. Louis City. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
69'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: D. Pereira)
81'M. Uzuni scores for Austin (assist: C. Ramirez)
3.16
xG Created
1.82
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 3.16-1.82
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.33-1.5
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.15-0.82

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-09-30 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0-0
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.12-1.21
MW21 · 2026-08-23 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.65-1.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 more goals than their 46.9 xG - clinical finishing
+5.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.9
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (163 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 34.5 xGA opponents generated
-1.2
Total CLS+12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

St. Louis City are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available