Season2026
ST.

St. Louis City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-16
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

St. Louis City can't catch a break. 34 points when the data says they deserve closer to 35.75? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-7.8 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 35.75
33
Goals Scored
xG: 32.96
30
Goals Conceded
xGA: 23.55
1.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · away
0-2
Lost away against Austin

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. St. Louis City created 3.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for St. Louis City. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
69'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: D. Pereira)
81'M. Uzuni scores for Austin (assist: C. Ramirez)
3.16
xG Created
1.82
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 3.16-1.82
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.33-1.5
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.15-0.82

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.12-1.21
MW21 · 2026-08-23 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.65-1.66
MW12 · 2026-05-14 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.72-1.68

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 23.6 xGA opponents generated
-4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 33.0 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-3.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (124 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.3
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, St. Louis City are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available