Season2026
ST.

St. Louis City CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

-38
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

St. Louis City can't catch a break. 9 points when the data says they deserve closer to 16.29? 6 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-13.9 CLS impact). 7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

9
Points
Expected: 16.29
10
Goals Scored
xG: 15.64
18
Goals Conceded
xGA: 13.09
7.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · away
0-2
Lost away against Austin

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. St. Louis City created 3.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for St. Louis City. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
69'C. Ramirez scores for Austin (assist: D. Pereira)
81'M. Uzuni scores for Austin (assist: C. Ramirez)
3.16
xG Created
1.82
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-05-03 · vs Austin · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 3.16-1.82
MW9 · 2026-04-26 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.33-1.5
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.15-0.82

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.12-1.21
MW11 · 2026-05-10 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.94-1.33
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs FC Dallas · Away+-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.3-1.4.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.28-1.44

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 15.6 xG - wasting chances
-11.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 13.1 xGA opponents generated
-3.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (61 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS-38

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -38, St. Louis City are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available