ST.

St. Louis City CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-24
CLS Score

St. Louis City can't catch a break. 6 points when the data says they deserve closer to 10.6? 4 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 10.6
7
Goals Scored
xG: 8.21
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.44
4.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles FC · away
0-2
Lost away against Los Angeles FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for St. Louis City. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
73'M. Choiniere scores for Los Angeles FC
81'M. Choiniere scores for Los Angeles FC
1.15
xG Created
0.82
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.15-0.82
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.67
MW1 · 2026-02-21 · vs Charlotte · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.59-0.59

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs New England Revolution · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.12-1.21
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs FC Dallas · Away+-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.3-1.4.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.28-1.44
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York City FC · Away+-0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.4-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.4-1.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 8.2 xG - wasting chances
-3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 8.4 xGA opponents generated
-3.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (34 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-24

Rank Per Signal

Where St. Louis City ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
xPTS Gap
1
30
-9.7
4
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-3.6
5
Defensive Luck
1
30
-3.5
5
Schedule Strength
1
30
-5.5
8
Finishing Luck
1
30
-3.8
14
Discipline
1
30
0
22
Injury Burden
1
30
+2.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, St. Louis City are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available