🏈 NFL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

NFL luck is dominated by three phases where randomness beats skill: turnover recoveries (fumble recovery rate is ~50% year-over-year noise), one-score game sequencing, and special teams variance. The NFL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses Pythagenpat expectation (dynamic exponent based on the scoring environment) as the baseline, then layers 6 luck signals: turnover luck (25%), Pythagorean delta (20%), EPA per play vs record (15%), close-game record (15%), kicking and special teams variance (10%), injury burden (10%), and strength of schedule (5%). Sample sizes are small early — tier assignments in Weeks 1-3 are tentative and Pythagorean carries relatively more weight until EPA and turnover samples stabilize (full weights at Week 6+). A team dominating EPA per play but losing every one-score game is cursed. A team recovering 65%+ of fumbles is riding luck that will not repeat.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Trend	Highlight	Share
— Neutral
1	Buffalo Bills NFL · 0 pts	1	1	0-0	0
2	Miami Dolphins NFL · 0 pts	2	2	0-0	0
3	New England Patriots NFL · 0 pts	3	3	0-0	0
4	New York Jets NFL · 0 pts	4	4	0-0	0
5	Baltimore Ravens NFL · 0 pts	5	5	0-0	0
6	Cincinnati Bengals NFL · 0 pts	6	6	0-0	0
7	Cleveland Browns NFL · 0 pts	7	7	0-0	0
8	Pittsburgh Steelers NFL · 0 pts	8	8	0-0	0
9	Houston Texans NFL · 0 pts	9	9	0-0	0
10	Indianapolis Colts NFL · 0 pts	10	10	0-0	0
11	Jacksonville Jaguars NFL · 0 pts	11	11	0-0	0
12	Tennessee Titans NFL · 0 pts	12	12	0-0	0
13	Denver Broncos NFL · 0 pts	13	13	0-0	0
14	Kansas City Chiefs NFL · 0 pts	14	14	0-0	0
15	Las Vegas Raiders NFL · 0 pts	15	15	0-0	0
16	Los Angeles Chargers NFL · 0 pts	16	16	0-0	0
17	Dallas Cowboys NFL · 0 pts	17	17	0-0	0
18	New York Giants NFL · 0 pts	18	18	0-0	0
19	Philadelphia Eagles NFL · 0 pts	19	19	0-0	0
20	Washington Commanders NFL · 0 pts	20	20	0-0	0
21	Chicago Bears NFL · 0 pts	21	21	0-0	0
22	Detroit Lions NFL · 0 pts	22	22	0-0	0
23	Green Bay Packers NFL · 0 pts	23	23	0-0	0
24	Minnesota Vikings NFL · 0 pts	24	24	0-0	0
25	Atlanta Falcons NFL · 0 pts	25	25	0-0	0
26	Carolina Panthers NFL · 0 pts	26	26	0-0	0
27	New Orleans Saints NFL · 0 pts	27	27	0-0	0
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL · 0 pts	28	28	0-0	0
29	Arizona Cardinals NFL · 0 pts	29	29	0-0	0
30	Los Angeles Rams NFL · 0 pts	30	30	0-0	0
31	San Francisco 49ers NFL · 0 pts	31	31	0-0	0
32	Seattle Seahawks NFL · 0 pts	32	32	0-0	0