🏈 NFL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

NFL luck is dominated by three phases where randomness beats skill: turnover recoveries (fumble recovery rate is ~50% year-over-year noise), one-score game sequencing, and special teams variance. The NFL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses Pythagenpat expectation (dynamic exponent based on the scoring environment) as the baseline, then layers 6 luck signals: turnover luck (25%), Pythagorean delta (20%), EPA per play vs record (15%), close-game record (15%), kicking and special teams variance (10%), injury burden (10%), and strength of schedule (5%). Sample sizes are small early — tier assignments in Weeks 1-3 are tentative and Pythagorean carries relatively more weight until EPA and turnover samples stabilize (full weights at Week 6+). A team dominating EPA per play but losing every one-score game is cursed. A team recovering 65%+ of fumbles is riding luck that will not repeat.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Trend	Highlight	Share
↓ Unlucky
1	Houston Texans NFL · 0 pts	30	17▲13	0-4	-31
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL · 1 pts	27	6▲21	1-4	-28
3	Tennessee Titans NFL · 0 pts	31	21▲10	0-4	-26
4	Los Angeles Chargers NFL · 0 pts	32	24▲8	0-4	-21
5	New York Jets NFL · 1 pts	24	16▲8	1-3	-18
6	Dallas Cowboys NFL · 2 pts	17	4▲13	2-3	-16
— Neutral
7	Jacksonville Jaguars NFL · 3 pts	7	1▲6	3-1	-13
8	Miami Dolphins NFL · 0 pts	29	30▼1	0-4	-11
9	Cincinnati Bengals NFL · 2 pts	13	9▲4	2-2	-11
10	New Orleans Saints NFL · 1 pts	26	20▲6	1-3	-11
11	Chicago Bears NFL · 3 pts	10	2▲8	3-1	-8
12	Carolina Panthers NFL · 2 pts	22	11▲11	2-2	-8
13	Washington Commanders NFL · 1 pts	25	26▼1	1-3	-3
14	Atlanta Falcons NFL · 2 pts	21	14▲7	2-2	-3
15	Los Angeles Rams NFL · 2 pts	23	15▲8	2-2	-3
16	Arizona Cardinals NFL · 1 pts	28	27▲1	1-3	-3
17	Seattle Seahawks NFL · 3 pts	11	5▲6	3-1	-1
18	Indianapolis Colts NFL · 2 pts	15	18▼3	2-2	+2
19	Las Vegas Raiders NFL · 3 pts	8	7▲1	3-1	+2
20	Detroit Lions NFL · 2 pts	19	19	2-2	+4
21	Baltimore Ravens NFL · 3 pts	5	12▼7	3-1	+9
22	Pittsburgh Steelers NFL · 2 pts	14	23▼9	2-2	+9
23	Buffalo Bills NFL · 3 pts	4	13▼9	3-1	+12
24	New England Patriots NFL · 2 pts	12	25▼13	2-2	+12
25	San Francisco 49ers NFL · 4 pts	3	3	4-0	+12
26	Philadelphia Eagles NFL · 2 pts	18	28▼10	2-2	+14
↑ Lucky
27	Denver Broncos NFL · 2 pts	16	29▼13	2-2	+17
28	Minnesota Vikings NFL · 4 pts	2	8▼6	4-0	+19
29	Kansas City Chiefs NFL · 4 pts	1	10▼9	4-0	+22
30	New York Giants NFL · 3 pts	9	22▼13	3-1	+22
31	Green Bay Packers NFL · 2 pts	20	32▼12	2-2	+24
32	Cleveland Browns NFL · 3 pts	6	31▼25	3-1	+36