🏈 NFL CURSD Luck Score Rankings

NFL luck is dominated by three phases where randomness beats skill: turnover recoveries (fumble recovery rate is ~50% year-over-year noise), one-score game sequencing, and special teams variance. The NFL CURSD Luck Score (CLS) uses Pythagenpat expectation (dynamic exponent based on the scoring environment) as the baseline, then layers 6 luck signals: turnover luck (25%), Pythagorean delta (20%), EPA per play vs record (15%), close-game record (15%), kicking and special teams variance (10%), injury burden (10%), and strength of schedule (5%). Sample sizes are small early — tier assignments in Weeks 1-3 are tentative and Pythagorean carries relatively more weight until EPA and turnover samples stabilize (full weights at Week 6+). A team dominating EPA per play but losing every one-score game is cursed. A team recovering 65%+ of fumbles is riding luck that will not repeat.

RK	Team	Pos	LAS	Record	CLS	Trend	Highlight	Share
↓ Unlucky
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL · 1 pts	30	7▲23	1-5	-34
2	Los Angeles Chargers NFL · 0 pts	32	26▲6	0-6	-26
3	Houston Texans NFL · 2 pts	20	4▲16	2-4	-24
4	Los Angeles Rams NFL · 2 pts	27	6▲21	2-4	-22
5	Dallas Cowboys NFL · 2 pts	22	9▲13	2-4	-19
6	Washington Commanders NFL · 1 pts	29	23▲6	1-4	-19
7	Seattle Seahawks NFL · 3 pts	18	2▲16	3-3	-19
8	Miami Dolphins NFL · 0 pts	31	29▲2	0-5	-17
9	Atlanta Falcons NFL · 2 pts	24	11▲13	2-4	-17
— Neutral
10	New York Jets NFL · 2 pts	19	16▲3	2-4	-14
11	Jacksonville Jaguars NFL · 4 pts	9	1▲8	4-2	-14
12	Indianapolis Colts NFL · 2 pts	21	20▲1	2-4	-9
13	Tennessee Titans NFL · 1 pts	28	28	1-5	-9
14	New Orleans Saints NFL · 2 pts	25	22▲3	2-4	-7
15	Carolina Panthers NFL · 3 pts	17	14▲3	3-2	-4
16	Cincinnati Bengals NFL · 3 pts	13	15▼2	3-2	-2
17	Las Vegas Raiders NFL · 3 pts	14	17▼3	3-3	+1
18	Chicago Bears NFL · 4 pts	11	3▲8	4-2	+1
19	New York Giants NFL · 3 pts	15	19▼4	3-2	+3
20	Philadelphia Eagles NFL · 2 pts	23	27▼4	2-4	+3
21	Detroit Lions NFL · 3 pts	16	18▼2	3-2	+3
22	New England Patriots NFL · 4 pts	5	8▼3	4-2	+5
23	Baltimore Ravens NFL · 4 pts	6	10▼4	4-2	+8
24	Arizona Cardinals NFL · 2 pts	26	31▼5	2-4	+13
↑ Lucky
25	Pittsburgh Steelers NFL · 4 pts	8	21▼13	4-2	+18
26	Kansas City Chiefs NFL · 5 pts	3	12▼9	5-0	+23
27	Minnesota Vikings NFL · 5 pts	4	13▼9	5-0	+23
28	Green Bay Packers NFL · 4 pts	12	25▼13	4-2	+23
29	San Francisco 49ers NFL · 6 pts	1	5▼4	6-0	+28
30	Buffalo Bills NFL · 5 pts	2	24▼22	5-1	+32
31	Denver Broncos NFL · 4 pts	10	30▼20	4-2	+35
32	Cleveland Browns NFL · 4 pts	7	32▼25	4-2	+40