1. FC Heidenheim Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-43

Luck Index Score

1. FC Heidenheim are the definition of "we deserved more." With 16 points from 29.62 expected, they've been robbed this season. 7 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 7 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 29.62

Goals Scored

xG: 36.36

Goals Conceded

xGA: 53.35

13.6

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · away

1-2

Lost away against FC St. Pauli

A defeat that defied the run of play. 1. FC Heidenheim created 2.44 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.8 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for 1. FC Heidenheim. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

35'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)

45'Eric Smith (FC St. Pauli) - Red Card

53'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)

64'M. Pieringer scores for 1. FC Heidenheim (assist: S. Schimmer)

2.44

xG Created

0.8

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.44-0.8

MW4 · 2025-09-20 · vs Hamburger SV · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.98-2.35

MW17 · 2026-01-13 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.55-1.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-29 · vs Union Berlin · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.59-0.97

MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.24-0.82

MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs SC Freiburg · Home+0.9 pts

Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.1-1.0.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.14-1

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

14 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-23

Finishing Luck

Scored 7 fewer goals than their 36.4 xG - wasting chances

-13

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-8.1

Defensive Luck

Conceded 10 more goals than the 53.4 xGA opponents generated

-7.9

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (103 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3.4

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.6

Total Luck Index-43

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

1. FC Heidenheim are deeply cursed at -43. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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