1. FC Heidenheim

1. FC Heidenheim CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-36
CLS Score

1. FC Heidenheim can't catch a break. 19 points when the data says they deserve closer to 32.92? 19 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

19
Points
Expected: 32.92
33
Goals Scored
xG: 39.79
66
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.96
13.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · away
1-2
Lost away against FC St. Pauli

A defeat that defied the run of play. 1. FC Heidenheim created 2.44 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.8 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for 1. FC Heidenheim. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)
45'Eric Smith (FC St. Pauli) - Red Card
53'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)
64'M. Pieringer scores for 1. FC Heidenheim (assist: S. Schimmer)
2.44
xG Created
0.8
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.44-0.8
MW4 · 2025-09-20 · vs Hamburger SV · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.98-2.35
MW17 · 2026-01-13 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.55-1.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-29 · vs Union Berlin · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.59-0.97
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.24-0.82
MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.1 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.85-0.99

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
14 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-20.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 39.8 xG - wasting chances
-10.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 more goals than the 56.0 xGA opponents generated
-7.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.6
Total CLS-36

Rank Per Signal

Where 1. FC Heidenheim ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
xPTS Gap
1
18
-20.2
1
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-6.7
2
Finishing Luck
1
18
-10.2
2
Defensive Luck
1
18
-7.6
10
Injury Burden
1
18
+2.6
11
Schedule Strength
1
18
+3
17
Discipline
1
18
+3.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
17W-5D-8L
+34Lucky
#4 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -36, 1. FC Heidenheim are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 14 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
04-25
H
FC St. Pauli
Bet
05-02
A
Bayern München
Bet
05-10
A
1. FC Köln
Bet
05-16
H
FSV Mainz 05
Bet