Season

1. FC Heidenheim CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-31

CLS Score

4th unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim can't catch a break. 26 points when the data says they deserve closer to 38.59? 20 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-17.6 CLS impact). 13 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 38.59

Goals Scored

xG: 47.88

Goals Conceded

xGA: 64.21

12.6

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · away

1-2

Lost away against FC St. Pauli

A defeat that defied the run of play. 1. FC Heidenheim created 2.44 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.8 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for 1. FC Heidenheim. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

35'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)

45'Eric Smith (FC St. Pauli) - Red Card

53'M. Kaars scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: J. Fujita)

64'M. Pieringer scores for 1. FC Heidenheim (assist: S. Schimmer)

2.44

xG Created

0.8

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.44-0.8

MW4 · 2025-09-20 · vs Hamburger SV · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.98-2.35

MW17 · 2026-01-13 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.55-1.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-29 · vs Union Berlin · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.59-0.97

MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away+1.5 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.36-1.17

MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.24-0.82

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

13 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-17.6

Finishing Luck

Scored 7 fewer goals than their 47.9 xG - wasting chances

-9.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 8 more goals than the 64.2 xGA opponents generated

-6.4

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5.5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3.8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+3.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (144 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+0.6

Total CLS-31

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -31, 1. FC Heidenheim are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 13 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available