VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+32
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+11.8 CLS impact). 8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

62
Points
Expected: 53.58
71
Goals Scored
xG: 60.11
49
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.01
8.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Union Berlin · away
1-2
Lost away against Union Berlin

A defeat that defied the run of play. VfB Stuttgart generated 1.73 xG, comfortably more than the 0.34 their opponent managed. Union Berlin created almost nothing - just 0.34 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for VfB Stuttgart. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin
45'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)
86'T. Tomas scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: C. Fuhrich)
1.73
xG Created
0.34
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Union Berlin · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.73-0.34
MW28 · 2026-04-04 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.76-0.61
MW15 · 2025-12-20 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.27-0.13

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.84-1.82
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs RB Leipzig · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.45-1.18
MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.4 pts
Won 3-2 home from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.35-1.93

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 60.1 xG - clinical finishing
+10.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 51.0 xGA opponents generated
+3.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (124 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.6
Total CLS+32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

VfB Stuttgart are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available