VfB Stuttgart Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+35

Luck Index Score

VfB Stuttgart have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 44.47

Goals Scored

xG: 47.53

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.19

8.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Union Berlin · away

1-2

Lost away against Union Berlin

A defeat that defied the run of play. VfB Stuttgart generated 1.73 xG, comfortably more than the 0.34 their opponent managed. Union Berlin created almost nothing - just 0.34 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for VfB Stuttgart. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

18'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin

45'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

86'T. Tomas scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: C. Fuhrich)

1.73

xG Created

0.34

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Union Berlin · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.73-0.34

MW28 · 2026-04-04 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.76-0.61

MW15 · 2025-12-20 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home-1.3 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.27-0.13

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+2.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.84-1.82

MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs RB Leipzig · Home+1.4 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.45-1.18

MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.4 pts

Won 3-2 home from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.35-1.93

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+14.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 8 more goals than their 47.5 xG - clinical finishing

+8.8

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+4.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 39.2 xGA opponents generated

+3.3

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (107 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+2.5

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.3

Total Luck Index+35

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

VfB Stuttgart are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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