VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-8
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 3.88 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 3.88
6
Goals Scored
xG: 7.29
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.02
0.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-12 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · away
1-2
Lost away against 1899 Hoffenheim

One of those games where nothing went right. VfB Stuttgart created 2.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.1 points for VfB Stuttgart. They got 0. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'A. Hlozek scores for 1899 Hoffenheim (assist: B. Conte)
48'M. Mittelstadt scores for VfB Stuttgart
67'A. Hlozek scores for 1899 Hoffenheim (assist: A. Daghim)
2.16
xG Created
2.76
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.16-2.76
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.87-1.34
MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs Bayern München · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 1-5 away. xG: 0.8-4.1.
Score: 1-5 | xG: 0.79-4.06

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-04 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home+1.4 pts
Won 4-1 home from 3.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 3.47-2.86
MW1 · 2026-08-28 · vs Bayern München · Away+-0.2 pts
Lost 1-5 away. xG: 0.8-4.1.
Score: 1-5 | xG: 0.79-4.06
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home+-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.87-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 7.3 xG - wasting chances
-3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (44 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.9
xPTS Gap
0.9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 11.0 xGA opponents generated
+1.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.8
Total CLS-8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

VfB Stuttgart are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 11th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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