Season

1899 Hoffenheim CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+35

CLS Score

3rd luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+14.3 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 50.8

Goals Scored

xG: 55.75

Goals Conceded

xGA: 50.83

10.2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · at home

0-1

Lost at home against FC St. Pauli

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. 1899 Hoffenheim created 2.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for 1899 Hoffenheim. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

45'M. Pereira Lage scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: M. Saliakas)

2.8

xG Created

0.78

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.8-0.78

MW34 · 2026-05-16 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 0-4 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-4 | xG: 1.62-1.2

MW6 · 2025-10-03 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.12-0.94

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-27 · vs Werder Bremen · Away+2.4 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.61-1.81

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.71

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.9 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.37-1.84

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+14.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 9 more goals than their 55.8 xG - clinical finishing

+8.8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+6.5

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (112 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+4.2

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+3.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 50.8 xGA opponents generated

+0.4

Total CLS+35

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

1899 Hoffenheim are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available