1899 Hoffenheim Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+42

Luck Index Score

1899 Hoffenheim have been living on borrowed time. 50 points from 41 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 41

Goals Scored

xG: 45.45

Goals Conceded

xGA: 42.99

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · at home

0-1

Lost at home against FC St. Pauli

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. 1899 Hoffenheim created 2.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for 1899 Hoffenheim. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

45'M. Pereira Lage scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: M. Saliakas)

2.8

xG Created

0.78

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.8-0.78

MW6 · 2025-10-03 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.12-0.94

MW26 · 2026-03-14 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-1.4 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.78-0.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-27 · vs Werder Bremen · Away+2.4 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.61-1.81

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.71

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.9 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.37-1.84

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+15.2

Finishing Luck

Scored 10 more goals than their 45.5 xG - clinical finishing

+10.4

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (88 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+6.5

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+4.3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 43.0 xGA opponents generated

+4.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.6

Total Luck Index+42

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Decline

Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At +42, 1899 Hoffenheim are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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