1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-8
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 5.88 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 5.88
7
Goals Scored
xG: 7.31
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.81
2.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-20 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · away
1-3
Lost away against SC Paderborn 07

One of those games where nothing went right. 1899 Hoffenheim generated 1.5 xG, comfortably more than the 0.68 their opponent managed. SC Paderborn 07 generated just 0.68 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for 1899 Hoffenheim. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'S. Castaneda scores for SC Paderborn 07
42'S. Marino scores for SC Paderborn 07 (assist: L. Curda)
50'A. Daghim scores for 1899 Hoffenheim (assist: M. Moerstedt)
69'S. Tigges scores for SC Paderborn 07 (assist: J. Sticker)
1.5
xG Created
0.68
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.5-0.68
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.88-1.95
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home. xG: 1.2-2.0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.17-2.02

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.76-2.16
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home+-0.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home. xG: 1.2-2.0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.17-2.02
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away+-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.88-1.95

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (14 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 6.8 xGA opponents generated
-2.1
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 7.3 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-1.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
Total CLS-8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
3W-1D-0L
+9Neutral
#2 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

1899 Hoffenheim are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 11th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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