1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+39
CLS Score

1899 Hoffenheim have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

54
Points
Expected: 44.13
59
Goals Scored
xG: 48.69
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.62
9.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · at home
0-1
Lost at home against FC St. Pauli

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. 1899 Hoffenheim created 2.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. FC St. Pauli generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for 1899 Hoffenheim. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
45'M. Pereira Lage scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: M. Saliakas)
2.8
xG Created
0.78
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-28 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.8-0.78
MW6 · 2025-10-03 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.12-0.94
MW26 · 2026-03-14 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.78-0.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2026-01-27 · vs Werder Bremen · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.61-1.81
MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.71
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.37-1.84

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 more goals than their 48.7 xG - clinical finishing
+10.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (98 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 45.6 xGA opponents generated
+3.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
Total CLS+39

Rank Per Signal

Where 1899 Hoffenheim ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Discipline
1
18
-1.9
11
Defensive Luck
1
18
+3.2
11
Schedule Strength
1
18
+3
14
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+4.3
15
Injury Burden
1
18
+5.5
16
xPTS Gap
1
18
+14.6
16
Finishing Luck
1
18
+10.3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
25W-4D-1L
+56Blessed
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

1899 Hoffenheim are riding their luck at +39. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 4 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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