Angers Luck Index
2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →
+43
Luck Index Score
Angers have had fortune smiling on them. 5.28 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.
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32
Points
Expected: 26.72
24
Goals Scored
xG: 25.67
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.48
5.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Le Havre · away
1-2
Lost away against Le Havre
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Angers. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
65'T. Tessmann scores for Lyon
0.55
xG Created
1.02
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW5 · 2025-09-19 · vs Lyon · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 1.2-1.8.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.81
MW17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Le Havre · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.55-1.02
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Lens · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.2-2.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.16-2.05
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Toulouse · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.43-1.98
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lorient · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.93-1.99
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Nice · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.83-1.31
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+14
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (67 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+12
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+10
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 44.5 xGA opponents generated
+9
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 25.7 xG - wasting chances
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Total Luck Index+43
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|11 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At +43, Angers are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.
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