Angers

Angers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+36
CLS Score

Angers have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 30.06
26
Goals Scored
xG: 28.15
40
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.44
3.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Rennes · away
1-2
Lost away against Rennes

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Angers. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'M. Louer scores for Rennes
25'M. Tamari scores for Rennes (assist: V. Rongier)
65'P. Peter scores for Angers (assist: L. Raolisoa)
1.12
xG Created
1.22
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Rennes · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.12-1.22
MW5 · 2025-09-19 · vs Lyon · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 1.2-1.8.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.81
MW17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Le Havre · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.55-1.02

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Toulouse · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.43-1.98
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lorient · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.93-1.99
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Nice · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.83-1.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+15.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+9.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 47.4 xGA opponents generated
+6.8
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 28.1 xG - wasting chances
-2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.5
Total CLS+36

Rank Per Signal

Where Angers ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Finishing Luck
1
18
-2.3
10
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+0.7
10
Discipline
1
18
-0.5
12
xPTS Gap
1
18
+6.4
15
Defensive Luck
1
18
+6.8
17
Injury Burden
1
18
+9.8
18
Schedule Strength
1
18
+15.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Nantes
Nantes
4W-8D-17L
-23Unlucky
#17 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Angers are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction.

Next Matches
04-25
H
Paris Saint Germain
Bet
05-03
A
Auxerre
Bet
05-10
H
Strasbourg
Bet
05-17
A
Stade Brestois 29
Bet