Season

Angers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+28

CLS Score

5th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Angers have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+15.5 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 33.09

Goals Scored

xG: 32.32

Goals Conceded

xGA: 55.84

2.9

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 32 · 2026-05-03 · vs Auxerre · away

1-3

Lost away against Auxerre

One of those games where nothing went right. Angers created 2.2 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Angers. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

12'S. Mara scores for Auxerre

45+2'Amine Sbai (Angers) - Red Card

61'S. Mara scores for Auxerre (assist: L. Sinayoko)

67'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: S. Mara)

77'G. Koyalipou scores for Angers

2.2

xG Created

2.03

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-05-03 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.2-2.03

MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Rennes · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.12-1.22

MW5 · 2025-09-19 · vs Lyon · Away-1.0 pts

Lost 0-1 away. xG: 1.2-1.8.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.81

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-23 · vs Toulouse · Away+2.6 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.43-1.98

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lorient · Home+2.3 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.93-1.99

MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Nice · Away+2.0 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.83-1.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+15.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 55.8 xGA opponents generated

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 32.3 xG - wasting chances

-7.4

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (99 player-games missed) - squad depth available

xPTS Gap

3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+5.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.5

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.1

Total CLS+28

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Angers are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available