Angers

Angers CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+3
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Angers are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 7.85 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 7.85
7
Goals Scored
xG: 9.49
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.82
0.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Lille · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Lille

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Angers generated 1.99 xG, comfortably more than the 1.24 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Angers. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'O. Giroud scores for Lille (assist: N. Bentaleb)
31'T. Santos scores for Lille
1.99
xG Created
1.24
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Lille · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.99-1.24
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Rennes · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.66-1.54
MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 1-5 away. xG: 1.4-3.9.
Score: 1-5 | xG: 1.45-3.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Auxerre · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.55-1.81
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Estac Troyes · Home+0.9 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 2.3-1.0.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.25-1.02
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Le Havre · Away+0.2 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.6-1.3.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.59-1.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (16 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 9.5 xG - wasting chances
-3
xPTS Gap
0.8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 fewer goals than the 10.8 xGA opponents generated
+0.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.2
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Angers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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