Season2026
ATL

Atlanta United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-27
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Atlanta United FC can't catch a break. 30 points when the data says they deserve closer to 37.56? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-13.6 CLS impact). 8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

30
Points
Expected: 37.56
37
Goals Scored
xG: 39.91
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.62
7.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2026-04-22 · vs New England Revolution · at home
1-2
Lost at home against New England Revolution

A defeat that defied the run of play. Atlanta United FC created 2.47 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. New England Revolution generated just 1.1 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Atlanta United FC. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
38'F. Picault scores for Atlanta United FC
73'W. Sands scores for New England Revolution (assist: C. Gil)
78'P. Miller scores for New England Revolution
2.47
xG Created
1.1
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs New England Revolution · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.47-1.1
MW15 · 2026-07-18 · vs Nashville SC · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.77-0.61
MW30 · 2026-10-17 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.43-1.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.95-2.11
MW26 · 2026-09-20 · vs Portland Timbers · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.73-1.53
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Toronto FC · Away+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.61-0.64

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 39.9 xG - wasting chances
-10.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-7.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (168 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 46.6 xGA opponents generated
+0.6
Total CLS-27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Atlanta United FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 8 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available