ATL

Atlanta United FC CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-15
CLS Score

Atlanta United FC are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 7.62 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 7.62
6
Goals Scored
xG: 8.7
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 14.52
3.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Salt Lake · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Real Salt Lake

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Atlanta United FC. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'S. Solans scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: M. Guilavogui)
27'A. Hezarkhani scores for Real Salt Lake
38'A. Miranchuk scores for Atlanta United FC (assist: E. Baez)
40'Z. Gozo scores for Real Salt Lake (assist: P. Quinton)
73'A. Miranchuk scores for Atlanta United FC (assist: E. Latte Lath)
1.16
xG Created
1.07
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Salt Lake · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.16-1.07
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Columbus Crew · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.24-1.46
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Chicago Fire · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.68-2.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.4 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.58-2.24
MW1 · 2026-02-21 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.3-2.3.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.33-2.25
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs DC United · Home+-0.3 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.3-0.2.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.26-0.16

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 8.7 xG - wasting chances
-6.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (36 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.5 fewer goals than the 14.5 xGA opponents generated
+1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.3
Total CLS-15

Rank Per Signal

Where Atlanta United FC ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-3.8
4
Discipline
1
30
-1.5
5
Finishing Luck
1
30
-6.3
7
xPTS Gap
1
30
-7.8
18
Defensive Luck
1
30
+1.5
19
Schedule Strength
1
30
+1.3
21
Injury Burden
1
30
+1.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Atlanta United FC are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available