Season2026
AUS

Austin CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

+10
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Austin are getting roughly what they deserve. 14 points vs 11.46 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 11.46
18
Goals Scored
xG: 13.65
21
Goals Conceded
xGA: 26.15
2.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Los Angeles Galaxy

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Austin. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'M. Yoshida scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: M. Reus)
78'E. Thommy scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: C. Garces)
85'M. Uzuni scores for Austin
0.68
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.68-0.73
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.6-2.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.61-2.15
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.7-1.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.71-1.63

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs St. Louis City · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.82-3.16
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.93-0.66
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs DC United · Home+0.7 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.5-0.3.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.5-0.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 26.1 xGA opponents generated
+6.4
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 13.7 xG - clinical finishing
+4.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (64 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.8
Total CLS+10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Austin are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available