Season2026
AUS

Austin CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

+18
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Austin have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Injury Burden (+8.1 CLS impact). Low injury burden (86 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

24
Points
Expected: 20.29
28
Goals Scored
xG: 22.77
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.93
3.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Los Angeles Galaxy

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Austin. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'M. Yoshida scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: M. Reus)
78'E. Thommy scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: C. Garces)
85'M. Uzuni scores for Austin
0.68
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.68-0.73
MW17 · 2026-07-26 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.9-1.7.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.86-1.73
MW21 · 2026-08-23 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home-0.8 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.6-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.6-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs St. Louis City · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.82-3.16
MW22 · 2026-08-30 · vs Portland Timbers · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.18-2.03
MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.15-1.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (86 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.5
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 42.9 xGA opponents generated
+4.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 22.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.9
Total CLS+18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Austin are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available