AUS

Austin CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-7
CLS Score

Austin are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 8.21 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 8.21
11
Goals Scored
xG: 8.75
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 14.77
1.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Los Angeles Galaxy

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Austin. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'M. Yoshida scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: M. Reus)
78'E. Thommy scores for Los Angeles Galaxy (assist: C. Garces)
85'M. Uzuni scores for Austin
0.68
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.68-0.73
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.6-2.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.61-2.15
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.7-1.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.71-1.63

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs DC United · Home+0.7 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.5-0.3.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.5-0.25
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Toronto FC · Away+0.4 pts
Drew 3-3 away. xG: 1.5-3.0.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 1.49-3.05
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Inter Miami · Away+0.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.7-2.9.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.68-2.94

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.3
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 8.8 xG - clinical finishing
+2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 fewer goals than the 14.8 xGA opponents generated
+1.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (46 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS-7

Rank Per Signal

Where Austin ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Schedule Strength
1
30
-6.3
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.9
10
xPTS Gap
1
30
-2.8
10
Injury Burden
1
30
-1
16
Discipline
1
30
+0.2
18
Finishing Luck
1
30
+2
20
Defensive Luck
1
30
+1.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Austin are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available