Auxerre

Auxerre CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-7
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Auxerre are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 5.97 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 5.97
7
Goals Scored
xG: 7.06
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.23
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Angers · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Angers

One of those games where nothing went right. Auxerre generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 1.55 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Auxerre. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'B. van den Boomen scores for Angers
35'R. Labeau Lascary scores for Auxerre (assist: R. Faivre)
70'H. Djibirin scores for Angers (assist: A. El Ouazzani)
78'A. El Ouazzani scores for Angers (assist: O. Camara)
1.81
xG Created
1.55
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Angers · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.81-1.55
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Lens · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 2-5 away. xG: 1.8-4.4.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 1.84-4.41
MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Lyon · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 1-3 away. xG: 0.7-2.9.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.71-2.85

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Nice · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.74-1.08
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.96-0.34
MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Lyon · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 1-3 away. xG: 0.7-2.9.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.71-2.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (50 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 10.2 xGA opponents generated
-3.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 7.1 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
+0.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.2
Total CLS-7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lyon
Lyon
3W-2D-0L
+5Neutral
#3 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Auxerre are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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