Auxerre

Auxerre CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-18
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Auxerre can't catch a break. 34 points when the data says they deserve closer to 39.33? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-10.6 CLS impact). 5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 39.33
34
Goals Scored
xG: 35.72
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.49
5.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Lille · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Lille

A defeat that defied the run of play. Auxerre created 2.97 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Lille generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Auxerre. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'H. Haraldsson scores for Lille
38'Nathan Ngoy (Lille) - Red Card
57'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: K. Danois)
60'Clement Akpa (Auxerre) - Red Card
66'C. Mbemba scores for Auxerre
77'N. Bentaleb scores for Lille
80'S. Diaoune scores for Lille
83'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre
86'B. Andre scores for Lille (assist: R. Perraud)
88'Oussama El Azzouzi (Auxerre) - Red Card
88'Romain Perraud (Lille) - Red Card
2.97
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Lille · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.97-0.52
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Lens · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-0.41
MW11 · 2025-11-01 · vs Marseille · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.17-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Toulouse · Home+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-2.33
MW34 · 2026-05-17 · vs Lille · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.54-1.72
MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Nice · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.84-1.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-10.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 48.5 xGA opponents generated
+4.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 35.7 xG - wasting chances
-2.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (149 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS-18

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lyon
Lyon
18W-6D-10L
+32Lucky
#4 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Auxerre are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available