Auxerre

Auxerre CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-47
CLS Score

Auxerre: 25 points from 36 expected, a gap of 11.1. Finishing has cost them: 7 fewer goals than their 31.8 xG should produce. 15 losses, 10 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

25
Points
Expected: 36.07
25
Goals Scored
xG: 31.79
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.12
11.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Lille · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Lille

A defeat that defied the run of play. Auxerre created 2.97 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Lille generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Auxerre. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'H. Haraldsson scores for Lille
38'Nathan Ngoy (Lille) - Red Card
57'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: K. Danois)
60'Clement Akpa (Auxerre) - Red Card
66'C. Mbemba scores for Auxerre
77'N. Bentaleb scores for Lille
80'S. Diaoune scores for Lille
83'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre
86'B. Andre scores for Lille (assist: R. Perraud)
88'Oussama El Azzouzi (Auxerre) - Red Card
88'Romain Perraud (Lille) - Red Card
2.97
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Lille · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.97-0.52
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Lens · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-0.41
MW11 · 2025-11-01 · vs Marseille · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.17-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Toulouse · Home+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-2.33
MW22 · 2026-02-15 · vs Metz · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.8-0.81
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Lorient · Home+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.44-1.37

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
11 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-18.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 31.8 xG - wasting chances
-14
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-11.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (124 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 41.1 xGA opponents generated
+1
Total CLS-47

Rank Per Signal

Where Auxerre ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Schedule Strength
1
18
-11.8
2
xPTS Gap
1
18
-18.7
2
Finishing Luck
1
18
-14
3
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-6.8
10
Injury Burden
1
18
+1.7
12
Defensive Luck
1
18
+1
13
Discipline
1
18
+1.6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lyon
Lyon
16W-6D-8L
+42Blessed
#4 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Auxerre are deeply cursed at -47. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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