Lyon

Lyon CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+5
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Lyon are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 8.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 8.7
10
Goals Scored
xG: 8.93
2
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.84
2.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Le Havre · at home
1-1
Drew at home against Le Havre

A draw that felt like a loss. Lyon generated 1.75 xG, comfortably more than the 0.69 their opponent managed. Le Havre generated just 0.69 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lyon. They got 1. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
74'A. Samatta scores for Le Havre (assist: F. Doucoure)
87'L. Openda scores for Lyon (assist: Z. Athekame)
1.75
xG Created
0.69
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Le Havre · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.75-0.69
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Paris FC · Away-0.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.5-0.3.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.5-0.3
MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Auxerre · Home+0.5 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 2.9-0.7.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.85-0.71

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Toulouse · Away+2.7 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.7-2.77
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Rennes · Home+0.7 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 3.1-1.4.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.13-1.37
MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Auxerre · Home+0.5 pts
Won 3-1 home. xG: 2.9-0.7.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.85-0.71

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.3
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 5.8 xGA opponents generated
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 8.9 xG - clinical finishing
+3.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lyon are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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