Lyon Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+33

Luck Index Score

Lyon have had fortune smiling on them. 6.5 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

Points

Expected: 40.5

Goals Scored

xG: 41.79

Goals Conceded

xGA: 35.84

6.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · away

2-3

Lost away against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Lyon created 3.39 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nice generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Lyon. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

5'M. Bard scores for Nice (assist: S. Diop)

29'P. Sulc scores for Lyon (assist: R. Kluivert)

35'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Boga)

55'H. Boudaoui scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)

90'P. Sulc scores for Lyon

3.39

xG Created

0.6

Opp. xG

-2.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · Away-2.7 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 3.4 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.39-0.6

MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.17-1.18

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Rennes · Away-1.1 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.71-2.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lille · Away+2.4 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.47

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Lille · Home+1.7 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.54-0.53

MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Lens · Away+1.6 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.41-1.38

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+13

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+12

Defensive Luck

Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 35.8 xGA opponents generated

Injury Burden

High injury burden (167 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-7

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 more goals than their 41.8 xG - clinical finishing

Total Luck Index+32

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: declining|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Lyon are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-05

Angers

Bet

04-12

Lorient

Bet

04-19

Paris Saint Germain

Bet

04-25

Auxerre

Bet

05-03

Rennes

Bet

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT