Lyon

Lyon CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+32
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Lyon have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+15.6 CLS impact). 8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

60
Points
Expected: 51.85
53
Goals Scored
xG: 53.49
40
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.14
8.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · away
2-3
Lost away against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Lyon created 3.39 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nice generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Lyon. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'M. Bard scores for Nice (assist: S. Diop)
29'P. Sulc scores for Lyon (assist: R. Kluivert)
35'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Boga)
55'H. Boudaoui scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)
90'P. Sulc scores for Lyon
3.39
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-2.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · Away-2.7 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.4 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.39-0.6
MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Toulouse · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.54-1.13
MW34 · 2026-05-17 · vs Lens · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-4 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 1.91-1.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+2.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.62-3.12
MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lille · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.47
MW29 · 2026-04-12 · vs Lorient · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.16-1.87

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (196 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 45.1 xGA opponents generated
+5.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.9
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 53.5 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+0.6
Total CLS+32

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lyon are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available