Lyon

Lyon CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+42
CLS Score

Lyon have been living on borrowed time. 54 points from 43.63 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

54
Points
Expected: 43.63
45
Goals Scored
xG: 44.75
30
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.11
10.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · away
2-3
Lost away against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Lyon created 3.39 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Nice generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Lyon. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'M. Bard scores for Nice (assist: S. Diop)
29'P. Sulc scores for Lyon (assist: R. Kluivert)
35'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Boga)
55'H. Boudaoui scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)
90'P. Sulc scores for Lyon
3.39
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-2.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nice · Away-2.7 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 3.4 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 3.39-0.6
MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.17-1.18
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Rennes · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.71-2.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+2.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.62-3.12
MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lille · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.47
MW29 · 2026-04-12 · vs Lorient · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.16-1.87

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+17
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 fewer goals than the 41.1 xGA opponents generated
+10.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+10.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (183 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6.5
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 44.8 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+3.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.4
Total CLS+42

Rank Per Signal

Where Lyon ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Injury Burden
1
18
-7.9
12
Finishing Luck
1
18
+3.8
12
Discipline
1
18
+1.4
16
Schedule Strength
1
18
+10.5
17
xPTS Gap
1
18
+17
17
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+6.5
18
Defensive Luck
1
18
+10.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +42, Lyon are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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