Bournemouth

Bournemouth CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-13
CLS Score

Bournemouth are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 49.05 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 49.05
50
Goals Scored
xG: 54.21
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.52
1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-22 · vs West Ham · at home
2-2
Drew at home against West Ham

A draw that felt like a loss. Bournemouth created 4.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. West Ham generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Bournemouth. They got 1. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'C. Wilson scores for West Ham (assist: A. Areola)
35'C. Wilson scores for West Ham (assist: J. Todibo)
69'M. Tavernier scores for Bournemouth
81'E. Unal scores for Bournemouth (assist: M. Senesi)
4.05
xG Created
0.65
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs West Ham · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 4.0 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 4.05-0.65
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Sunderland · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.7-1.28
MW20 · 2026-01-03 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.43-1.13

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Everton · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.94
MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Arsenal · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.2-2.41
MW24 · 2026-01-31 · vs Wolves · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.36-1.38

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 54.2 xG - wasting chances
-5.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (132 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.3
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.5 more goals than the 50.5 xGA opponents generated
-0.2
Total CLS-13

Rank Per Signal

Where Bournemouth ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Schedule Strength
1
20
-7.8
6
Finishing Luck
1
20
-5.6
7
Discipline
1
20
-1.3
11
Defensive Luck
1
20
-0.2
12
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1
12
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+0.6
12
Injury Burden
1
20
+2.3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Brighton
Brighton
12W-11D-10L
-4Neutral
#9 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bournemouth are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

Next Matches
04-22
H
Leeds
Bet
05-03
H
Crystal Palace
Bet
05-09
A
Fulham
Bet
05-17
H
Manchester City
Bet
05-24
A
Nottingham Forest
Bet