Bournemouth

Bournemouth Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-22
Luck Index Score

Bournemouth can't catch a break. 42 points when they deserve 46.26? That's 4.26 points stolen by the football gods. 7 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

42
Points
Expected: 46.26
46
Goals Scored
xG: 49.98
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.46
4.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-22 · vs West Ham · at home
2-2
Drew at home against West Ham

A draw that felt like a loss. Bournemouth created 4.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. West Ham generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Bournemouth. They got 1. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'C. Wilson scores for West Ham (assist: A. Areola)
35'C. Wilson scores for West Ham (assist: J. Todibo)
69'M. Tavernier scores for Bournemouth
81'E. Unal scores for Bournemouth (assist: M. Senesi)
4.05
xG Created
0.65
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs West Ham · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 4.0 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 4.05-0.65
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Sunderland · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.7-1.28
MW20 · 2026-01-03 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.43-1.13

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Everton · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.94
MW24 · 2026-01-31 · vs Wolves · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.36-1.38
MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Tottenham · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.27-1.25

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 50.0 xG - wasting chances
-6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated
-3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (125 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Total Luck Index-22

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Brighton
Brighton
11W-10D-10L
-15Unlucky
#10 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Bournemouth are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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