Brighton

Brighton Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-15
Luck Index Score

Brighton are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 45.38 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

43
Points
Expected: 45.38
41
Goals Scored
xG: 45.58
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.85
2.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Fulham · away
1-2
Lost away against Fulham

One of those games where nothing went right. Brighton generated 1.59 xG, comfortably more than the 1.05 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Brighton. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'I. Ndiaye scores for Everton (assist: J. Grealish)
52'J. Garner scores for Everton (assist: J. Grealish)
1.59
xG Created
1.05
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Everton · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.43-1.6
MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Fulham · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-1.05
MW29 · 2026-03-04 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.82-0.47

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brentford · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.22-1.91
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Newcastle · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-1.45
MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brentford · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.09-1.6

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 45.6 xG - wasting chances
-7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 40.9 xGA opponents generated
+4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (140 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
0
Total Luck Index-16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
10W-9D-11L
-40Cursed
#14 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Brighton are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

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