Season

Brighton CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-1

CLS Score

11th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Brighton are getting roughly what they deserve. 53 points vs 56.44 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 56.44

Goals Scored

xG: 56.48

Goals Conceded

xGA: 47.72

3.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Leeds · away

0-1

Lost away against Leeds

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brighton created 2.7 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Leeds generated just 0.76 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Brighton. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

90'D. Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds

2.7

xG Created

0.76

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Leeds · Away-2.5 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.7-0.76

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Everton · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.43-1.6

MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Fulham · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brentford · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.22-1.91

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Newcastle · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-1.45

MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brentford · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.09-1.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 56.5 xG - wasting chances

-5.3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 47.7 xGA opponents generated

+4.8

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+4.6

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-3.9

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.7

Injury Burden

High injury burden (167 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-0.3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.2

Total CLS-1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Brighton are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

05-24

Manchester United

Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position

of 20

No change from current 7

Projected Points

from 53 now (+1 remaining)

Pace

1.53

expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache

Brighton has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.

Player	Price	Owned	Goals	xG	Δ	Verdict
Welbeck FWD	£6.4	8.9%	13	12.4	+0.6	Finishing in line with xG
Groß MID	£5.6	3.1%	1	1.3	-0.3	Finishing in line with xG
Minteh MID	£5.5	2.5%	3	3.8	-0.8	Finishing in line with xG
Mitoma MID	£6.1	2.0%	3	4.0	-1.0	Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Hinshelwood MID	£5.2	1.5%	4	4.9	-0.9	Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).