Brighton

Brighton CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-4
CLS Score

Brighton are getting roughly what they deserve. 47 points vs 48.63 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 48.63
45
Goals Scored
xG: 48.38
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.83
1.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Everton · away
0-2
Lost away against Everton

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brighton created 2.43 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Brighton. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'I. Ndiaye scores for Everton (assist: J. Grealish)
52'J. Garner scores for Everton (assist: J. Grealish)
2.43
xG Created
1.6
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Everton · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.43-1.6
MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Fulham · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-1.05
MW29 · 2026-03-04 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.82-0.47

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brentford · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.22-1.91
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Newcastle · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.91-1.45
MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brentford · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.09-1.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 48.4 xG - wasting chances
-4.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 42.8 xGA opponents generated
+3.8
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (159 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.4
Total CLS-4

Rank Per Signal

Where Brighton ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

8
Finishing Luck
1
20
-4.2
8
Discipline
1
20
-1.1
9
Injury Burden
1
20
-1.7
10
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1.9
11
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+0.4
12
Schedule Strength
1
20
+0.7
15
Defensive Luck
1
20
+3.8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
11W-10D-11L
-32Unlucky
#13 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Brighton are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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