Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-52
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Crystal Palace: 45 points from 55 expected, a gap of 9.8. Finishing has cost them: 17 fewer goals than their 56.9 xG should produce. 14 losses, 12 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-23.2 CLS impact). Scored 17 fewer goals than their 56.9 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 54.78
40
Goals Scored
xG: 56.91
49
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.41
9.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Burnley · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Burnley

A defeat that defied the run of play. Crystal Palace generated 1.8 xG, comfortably more than the 0.53 their opponent managed. Burnley generated just 0.53 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Crystal Palace. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'J. S. Larsen scores for Crystal Palace (assist: A. Wharton)
33'J. S. Larsen scores for Crystal Palace (assist: J. Lerma)
40'H. Mejbri scores for Burnley (assist: M. Edwards)
44'J. Anthony scores for Burnley (assist: L. Ugochukwu)
45'J. Lerma scores for Burnley
1.8
xG Created
0.53
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Burnley · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.8-0.53
MW33 · 2026-04-25 · vs Liverpool · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.32-0.91
MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Manchester City · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.88-1.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Burnley · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.59-0.95
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Wolves · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.27-1.79
MW10 · 2025-11-01 · vs Brentford · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.7-0.54

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 17 fewer goals than their 56.9 xG - wasting chances
-23.2
xPTS Gap
10 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-13.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (195 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 49.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
0
Total CLS-52

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Crystal Palace are deeply cursed at -52. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Arsenal
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
15
of 20
No change from current 15
Projected Points
46
from 45 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
1.48
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Crystal Palace has scored 17 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Mateta FWD£7.68.4%1114.0-3.0Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Sarr MID£6.46.1%910.9-1.9Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Johnson MID£6.52.4%22.5-0.5Finishing in line with xG
Strand Larsen FWD£5.91.5%45.2-1.2Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Devenny MID£4.31.1%12.4-1.4Underperforming xG — buy the dip

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).