Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-32
CLS Score

Crystal Palace can't catch a break. 43 points when the data says they deserve closer to 48.07? 11 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 48.07
35
Goals Scored
xG: 48.8
36
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.16
5.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Burnley · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Burnley

A defeat that defied the run of play. Crystal Palace generated 1.8 xG, comfortably more than the 0.53 their opponent managed. Burnley generated just 0.53 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Crystal Palace. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'J. S. Larsen scores for Crystal Palace (assist: A. Wharton)
33'J. S. Larsen scores for Crystal Palace (assist: J. Lerma)
40'H. Mejbri scores for Burnley (assist: M. Edwards)
44'J. Anthony scores for Burnley (assist: L. Ugochukwu)
45'J. Lerma scores for Burnley
1.8
xG Created
0.53
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Burnley · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.8-0.53
MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Manchester City · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.88-1.19
MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Manchester United · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-1.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Burnley · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.59-0.95
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Wolves · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.27-1.79
MW10 · 2025-11-01 · vs Brentford · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.7-0.54

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 14 fewer goals than their 48.8 xG - wasting chances
-20.7
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 41.2 xGA opponents generated
+5.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS-32

Rank Per Signal

Where Crystal Palace ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Finishing Luck
1
20
-20.7
6
Injury Burden
1
20
-3.5
7
xPTS Gap
1
20
-7.7
8
Schedule Strength
1
20
-5.2
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.8
11
Discipline
1
20
+0.4
16
Defensive Luck
1
20
+5.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -32, Crystal Palace are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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