Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-8
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Crystal Palace are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 5.41 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 5.41
6
Goals Scored
xG: 2.62
11
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.33
1.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Everton · away
0-2
Lost away against Everton

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Crystal Palace generated 1.96 xG, comfortably more than the 1.12 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Crystal Palace. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'K. Dewsbury-Hall scores for Everton (assist: H. Armstrong)
53'T. Barry scores for Everton (assist: I. Ndiaye)
1.96
xG Created
1.12
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Everton · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.96-1.12
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Ipswich · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0-0
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Manchester City · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 1-4 home. xG: 0.7-2.2.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.66-2.21

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Fulham · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Leeds · Away+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Manchester City · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 1-4 home. xG: 0.7-2.2.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.66-2.21

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 3.3 xGA opponents generated
-3.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (18 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 2.6 xG - wasting chances
-0.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS-8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Brighton
Brighton
3W-1D-1L
+11Neutral
#3 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Crystal Palace are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

Next Matches
10-11
H
Nottingham Forest
Bet
10-18
A
Brighton
Bet
10-25
H
Newcastle
Bet
10-31
A
Tottenham
Bet
11-08
H
Liverpool
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
15
of 20
No change from current 15
Projected Points
36
from 4 now (+32 remaining)
Pace
1.08
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Crystal Palace's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Hughes MID£4.47.2%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG
Mateta FWD£6.31.3%00.7-0.7Finishing in line with xG
Wharton MID£5.40.7%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Strand Larsen FWD£6.00.7%10.4+0.6Finishing in line with xG
Sarr MID£6.20.6%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).