Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+28
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Celta Vigo have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+8.7 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

51
Points
Expected: 51.53
52
Goals Scored
xG: 48.51
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.84
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Osasuna

A defeat that defied the run of play. Celta Vigo created 2.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Osasuna generated just 0.66 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Celta Vigo. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'A. Budimir scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Moro)
53'B. Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo
79'R. Garcia scores for Osasuna (assist: A. Catena)
2.16
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.16-0.66
MW36 · 2026-05-12 · vs Levante · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.18-1.52
MW33 · 2026-04-26 · vs Villarreal · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.08-1.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW35 · 2026-05-09 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away+2.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.13-2.18
MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Girona · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.6-1.37
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.55-2.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (119 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 48.5 xG - clinical finishing
+6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.4
xPTS Gap
0.5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 fewer goals than the 48.8 xGA opponents generated
+0.6
Total CLS+28

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
26W-5D-6L
+19Lucky
#2 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Celta Vigo are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Sevilla
Bet