Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+8
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Celta Vigo are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 8.94 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 8.94
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.05
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.84
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-09-13 · vs Malaga · at home
1-1
Drew at home against Malaga

A draw that felt like a loss. Celta Vigo generated 1.9 xG, comfortably more than the 0.43 their opponent managed. Malaga created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Celta Vigo. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
41'F. Jutgla scores for Celta Vigo (assist: H. Gonzalez)
83'A. Nino scores for Malaga (assist: P. Martinez)
1.9
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-09-13 · vs Malaga · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.9-0.43
MW5 · 2026-09-07 · vs Getafe · Away-0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.0-0.7.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.03-0.65
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Valencia · Away-0.4 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.7-0.6.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.66-0.58

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Racing Santander · Home+0.7 pts
Won 5-0 home. xG: 2.1-0.8.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.14-0.75
MW4 · 2026-09-03 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+0.2 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.4-1.1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.43-1.05
MW2 · 2026-08-27 · vs Osasuna · Home+-0.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 0.1-2.6.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.14-2.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.1
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 8.8 xGA opponents generated
+3.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (22 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 1.0 more goals than their 7.0 xG - clinical finishing
+1.1
Total CLS+8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
5W-0D-2L
0Neutral
#4 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Celta Vigo are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

Next Matches
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