Celta Vigo CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+27

CLS Score

Celta Vigo have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 45.39

Goals Scored

xG: 41.51

Goals Conceded

xGA: 37.99

1.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Osasuna

A defeat that defied the run of play. Celta Vigo created 2.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Osasuna generated just 0.66 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Celta Vigo. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

35'A. Budimir scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Moro)

53'B. Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo

79'R. Garcia scores for Osasuna (assist: A. Catena)

2.16

xG Created

0.66

Opp. xG

-2.3

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · Home-2.3 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.16-0.66

MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.63-0.38

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.5 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.92-0.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Girona · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.6-1.37

MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.55-2.46

MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Osasuna · Away+1.8 pts

Won 3-2 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.96-2.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+17.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 41.5 xG - clinical finishing

+4.9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+4.1

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (107 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 more goals than the 38.0 xGA opponents generated

-3.2

xPTS Gap

1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-2.4

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+2.1

Total CLS+27

Rank Per Signal

Where Celta Vigo ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Defensive Luck

-3.2

xPTS Gap

-2.4

Finishing Luck

+4.9

Injury Burden

+3.7

Shot Volume Gap

+2.1

Discipline

+4.1

Schedule Strength

+17.8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Celta Vigo are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction.

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