Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+32
Luck Index Score

Celta Vigo are getting roughly what they deserve. 41 points vs 43.02 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

41
Points
Expected: 43.02
41
Goals Scored
xG: 39.55
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 35.48
2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Osasuna

A defeat that defied the run of play. Celta Vigo created 2.16 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Osasuna generated just 0.66 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Celta Vigo. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'A. Budimir scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Moro)
53'B. Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo
79'R. Garcia scores for Osasuna (assist: A. Catena)
2.16
xG Created
0.66
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-06 · vs Osasuna · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.16-0.66
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.63-0.38
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.92-0.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Girona · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.6-1.37
MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.55-2.46
MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Osasuna · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.96-2.31

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+21
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (97 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 39.5 xG - clinical finishing
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 35.5 xGA opponents generated
0
Total Luck Index+33

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
22W-3D-4L
+28Lucky
#2 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Celta Vigo are riding their luck at +32. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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