Real Madrid

Real Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+14
CLS Score

Real Madrid are getting roughly what they deserve. 70 points vs 61.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

70
Points
Expected: 61.9
65
Goals Scored
xG: 67.85
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33.53
8.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Getafe

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Madrid generated 1.91 xG, comfortably more than the 0.49 their opponent managed. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.49 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Real Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: M. Arambarri)
90+5'Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid) - Red Card
90+7'Adrian Liso (Getafe) - Red Card
1.91
xG Created
0.49
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.91-0.49
MW16 · 2025-12-07 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.46-1.55
MW31 · 2026-04-10 · vs Girona · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.3-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.86-1.04
MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.42-2.23
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.18-0.96

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (170 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 33.5 xGA opponents generated
+4.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 67.8 xG - wasting chances
-3.5
Total CLS+14

Rank Per Signal

Where Real Madrid ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Injury Burden
1
20
-7.8
5
Schedule Strength
1
20
-5.1
8
Finishing Luck
1
20
-3.5
16
Defensive Luck
1
20
+4.8
17
xPTS Gap
1
20
+14
18
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+7.9
18
Discipline
1
20
+3.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Madrid are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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