Season

Real Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 3 matches played · View La Liga standings →

CLS Score

6th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Madrid are getting roughly what they deserve. 9 points vs 7.43 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 7.43

Goals Scored

xG: 8.47

Goals Conceded

xGA: 2.33

1.6

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-26 · vs Real Sociedad · at home

4-1

Won at home against Real Sociedad

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Madrid created 3.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 4. Real Sociedad generated just 0.57 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Real Madrid. They got 3. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

40'K. Mbappe scores for Real Madrid (assist: F. Valverde)

44'L. Sucic scores for Real Sociedad

60'K. Mbappe scores for Real Madrid (assist: J. Bellingham)

68'Vinicius Junior scores for Real Madrid (assist: J. Bellingham)

80'K. Mbappe scores for Real Madrid (assist: Vinicius Junior)

3.14

xG Created

0.57

Opp. xG

0.3

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-26 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+0.3 pts

Won 4-1 home. xG: 3.1-0.6.

Score: 4-1 | xG: 3.14-0.57

MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Malaga · Home+0.5 pts

Won 4-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.7.

Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.62-0.71

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Espanyol · Away+0.7 pts

Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.7-1.1.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.71-1.05

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Espanyol · Away+0.7 pts

Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.7-1.1.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.71-1.05

MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Malaga · Home+0.5 pts

Won 4-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.7.

Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.62-0.71

MW2 · 2026-08-26 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+0.3 pts

Won 4-1 home. xG: 3.1-0.6.

Score: 4-1 | xG: 3.14-0.57

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (42 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-4.6

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3.3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+2.7

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 8.5 xG - clinical finishing

+2.4

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.3

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-0.8

Defensive Luck

Conceding almost exactly at the 2.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way

+0.7

Total CLS+5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|35 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Real Madrid are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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