Real Madrid Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+28

Luck Index Score

Real Madrid have been living on borrowed time. 69 points from 58.02 expected? They're 10.98 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

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Points

Expected: 58.02

Goals Scored

xG: 64.27

Goals Conceded

xGA: 31.79

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Getafe

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Madrid generated 1.91 xG, comfortably more than the 0.49 their opponent managed. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.49 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Real Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

39'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: M. Arambarri)

90+5'Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid) - Red Card

90+7'Adrian Liso (Getafe) - Red Card

1.91

xG Created

0.49

Opp. xG

-2.3

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · Home-2.3 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.91-0.49

MW16 · 2025-12-07 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.46-1.55

MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Girona · Away-1.4 pts

Drew 1-1 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.53-0.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.86-1.04

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.5 pts

Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.42-2.23

MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.5 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.18-0.96

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

11 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+22

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+11

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 31.8 xGA opponents generated

Injury Burden

High injury burden (160 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-8

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-7

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 fewer goals than their 64.3 xG - wasting chances

-1

Total Luck Index+29

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Real Madrid are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-04

Mallorca

Bet

04-10

Girona

Bet

04-22

Alaves

Bet

04-25

Real Betis

Bet

05-03

Espanyol

Bet

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