Real Madrid

Real Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

0
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Madrid are getting roughly what they deserve. 15 points vs 15 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 15
18
Goals Scored
xG: 18.46
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.6
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-04 · vs Real Betis · away
0-1
Lost away against Real Betis

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Madrid created 3.46 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Real Betis generated just 0.93 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Real Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
81'T. Parrott scores for Real Betis
90+4'Kylian Mbappé scores for Real Madrid
3.46
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-04 · vs Real Betis · Away-2.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 3.5 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 3.46-0.93
MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.3-2.4.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.3-2.35
MW2 · 2026-08-26 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+0.3 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 3.1-0.6.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 3.14-0.57

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+0.8 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.6-1.2.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.62-1.21
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Espanyol · Away+0.7 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 2.7-1.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.71-1.05
MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Malaga · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 2.6-0.7.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.62-0.71

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (40 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 18.5 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
0
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 7.6 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
0
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total CLS0

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Madrid are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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