Real Madrid

Real Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+19
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Madrid have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+20.3 CLS impact). 12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

83
Points
Expected: 70.94
73
Goals Scored
xG: 75.95
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.35
12.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Getafe

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Madrid generated 1.91 xG, comfortably more than the 0.49 their opponent managed. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.49 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Real Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: M. Arambarri)
90+5'Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid) - Red Card
90+7'Adrian Liso (Getafe) - Red Card
1.91
xG Created
0.49
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.91-0.49
MW16 · 2025-12-07 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.46-1.55
MW31 · 2026-04-10 · vs Girona · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.3-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.86-1.04
MW32 · 2026-04-21 · vs Alaves · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.62-1.76
MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.42-2.23

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+20.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (233 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+10.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 40.4 xGA opponents generated
+8.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 76.0 xG - wasting chances
-4.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.1
Total CLS+19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Madrid are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-23
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Athletic Club
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