Season2026
CF

CF Montreal CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 11 matches played · View mls standings →

-1
CLS Score
16th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

CF Montreal are getting roughly what they deserve. 12 points vs 15.18 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

12
Points
Expected: 15.18
16
Goals Scored
xG: 15.36
23
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.8
3.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · away
3-4
Lost away against FC Cincinnati

One of those games where nothing went right. CF Montreal created 2.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for CF Montreal. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'W. Carmona scores for CF Montreal (assist: P. Owusu)
40'E. Echenique scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: A. Powell)
45'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal (assist: Ivan Jaime)
52'A. Jabbari scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: E. Echenique)
60'Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
64'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal
80'T. Barlow scores for FC Cincinnati
90'K. Denkey scores for FC Cincinnati
2.05
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.05-1.58
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.96-1.07
MW10 · 2026-05-02 · vs Atlanta United FC · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.92-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2026-04-25 · vs New York City FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-0.43
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+0.8 pts
Won 3-0 away. xG: 2.1-0.8.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.07-0.85
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home+0.6 pts
Won 4-1 home. xG: 2.9-1.0.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.9-1

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+15.6
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 15.8 xGA opponents generated
-7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 fewer goals than their 15.4 xG - wasting chances
-2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (64 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.4
Total CLS-1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|27 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

CF Montreal are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available