Season2026
CF

CF Montreal CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

-29
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the mls

CF Montreal can't catch a break. 21 points when the data says they deserve closer to 30.01? 11 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-16.8 CLS impact). 9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 30.01
30
Goals Scored
xG: 31.62
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.6
9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · away
3-4
Lost away against FC Cincinnati

One of those games where nothing went right. CF Montreal created 2.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for CF Montreal. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'W. Carmona scores for CF Montreal (assist: P. Owusu)
40'E. Echenique scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: A. Powell)
45'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal (assist: Ivan Jaime)
52'A. Jabbari scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: E. Echenique)
60'Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
64'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal
80'T. Barlow scores for FC Cincinnati
90'K. Denkey scores for FC Cincinnati
2.05
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.05-1.58
MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.04-1.81
MW19 · 2026-08-15 · vs DC United · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.88-0.56

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2026-04-25 · vs New York City FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-0.43
MW20 · 2026-08-19 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 1.2-0.3.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.16-0.3
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+0.8 pts
Won 3-0 away. xG: 2.1-0.8.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.07-0.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-16.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 more goals than the 34.6 xGA opponents generated
-9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 31.6 xG - wasting chances
-5.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (144 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS-29

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -29, CF Montreal are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 9 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available