Season2026
CF

CF Montreal CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-46
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the mls

CF Montreal: 25 points from 38 expected, a gap of 12.8. Finishing has cost them: 5 fewer goals than their 40.7 xG should produce. Defensively, 11 more goals conceded than the 49.0 xGA opponents generated. 17 losses, 7 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-22.6 CLS impact). 13 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

25
Points
Expected: 37.77
36
Goals Scored
xG: 40.72
60
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.04
12.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · away
3-4
Lost away against FC Cincinnati

One of those games where nothing went right. CF Montreal created 2.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for CF Montreal. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'W. Carmona scores for CF Montreal (assist: P. Owusu)
40'E. Echenique scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: A. Powell)
45'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal (assist: Ivan Jaime)
52'A. Jabbari scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: E. Echenique)
60'Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
64'P. Owusu scores for CF Montreal
80'T. Barlow scores for FC Cincinnati
90'K. Denkey scores for FC Cincinnati
2.05
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs FC Cincinnati · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 3-4 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.05-1.58
MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.04-1.81
MW24 · 2026-09-09 · vs Charlotte · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-09-26 · vs FC Cincinnati · Home+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.07-1.91
MW9 · 2026-04-25 · vs New York City FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-0.43
MW20 · 2026-08-19 · vs Columbus Crew · Away+0.9 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 1.2-0.3.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.16-0.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
13 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-22.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 40.7 xG - wasting chances
-13.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-8.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 more goals than the 49.0 xGA opponents generated
-5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (223 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Total CLS-46

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

CF Montreal are deeply cursed at -46. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available