Season2026
CHA

Charlotte CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

+2
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Charlotte are getting roughly what they deserve. 15 points vs 16.86 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

15
Points
Expected: 16.86
20
Goals Scored
xG: 17.86
21
Goals Conceded
xGA: 17.36
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Nashville SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Charlotte created 2.19 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Nashville SC generated just 0.54 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Charlotte. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'E. Tagseth scores for Nashville SC (assist: P. Yazbek)
62'P. Yazbek scores for Nashville SC (assist: H. Mukhtar)
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte
2.19
xG Created
0.54
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.19-0.54
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Orlando City SC · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.57-0.9
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Nashville SC · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 1.15-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs New York City FC · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.04-1.76
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.46-1.71
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home+1.6 pts
Won 6-1 home from 2.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 6-1 | xG: 2.55-2.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (31 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+9.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.6
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 17.4 xGA opponents generated
-2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 17.9 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Total CLS+2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Charlotte are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available