CHA

Charlotte CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

+23
CLS Score

Charlotte have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

14
Points
Expected: 10.93
15
Goals Scored
xG: 12.03
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.21
3.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Nashville SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Charlotte created 2.19 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Nashville SC generated just 0.54 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Charlotte. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'E. Tagseth scores for Nashville SC (assist: P. Yazbek)
62'P. Yazbek scores for Nashville SC (assist: H. Mukhtar)
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte
2.19
xG Created
0.54
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.19-0.54
MW4 · 2026-03-14 · vs Inter Miami · Home-0.4 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.1-1.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.08-0.98
MW2 · 2026-03-01 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Away-0.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-2.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.21-2.92

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs New York City FC · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.04-1.76
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.46-1.71
MW5 · 2026-03-21 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home+1.6 pts
Won 6-1 home from 2.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 6-1 | xG: 2.55-2.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (11 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.8
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 12.0 xG - clinical finishing
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 12.2 xGA opponents generated
+3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Total CLS+23

Rank Per Signal

Where Charlotte ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

15
Schedule Strength
1
30
-0.4
19
Discipline
1
30
+0.6
21
Finishing Luck
1
30
+3.2
23
xPTS Gap
1
30
+5.8
25
Defensive Luck
1
30
+3.2
25
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
+2.8
30
Injury Burden
1
30
+7.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Charlotte are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available