Season2026
CHA

Charlotte CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

+27
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the mls

Charlotte have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Injury Burden (+8.3 CLS impact). Low injury burden (83 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

35
Points
Expected: 31.61
40
Goals Scored
xG: 33.04
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 30.98
3.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Nashville SC

A defeat that defied the run of play. Charlotte created 2.19 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Nashville SC generated just 0.54 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Charlotte. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'E. Tagseth scores for Nashville SC (assist: P. Yazbek)
62'P. Yazbek scores for Nashville SC (assist: H. Mukhtar)
65'Idan Toklomati Jorno scores for Charlotte
90'A. Goodwin scores for Charlotte
2.19
xG Created
0.54
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Nashville SC · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.19-0.54
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs Orlando City SC · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.57-0.9
MW10 · 2026-04-26 · vs Nashville SC · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 1.15-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-07-25 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.62-2.38
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs New York City FC · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.04-1.76
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.46-1.71

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (83 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8.3
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 33.0 xG - clinical finishing
+6.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 31.0 xGA opponents generated
+1.5
Total CLS+27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Charlotte are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available