Season2026
COL

Colorado Rapids CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-2
CLS Score
14th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Colorado Rapids are getting roughly what they deserve. 13 points vs 15.76 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 15.76
22
Goals Scored
xG: 17.76
20
Goals Conceded
xGA: 17.09
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Inter Miami · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Inter Miami

One of those games where nothing went right. Colorado Rapids generated 1.69 xG, comfortably more than the 1.18 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Colorado Rapids. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami
45'G. Berterame scores for Inter Miami (assist: M. Silvetti)
58'Rafael Navarro scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: W. Frederick)
62'D. Yapi scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: L. Herrington)
79'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: R. de Paul)
87'Yannick Bright (Inter Miami) - Red Card
1.69
xG Created
1.18
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.69-1.18
MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.44-0.5
MW12 · 2026-05-10 · vs St. Louis City · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-1.94

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 6-2 home from 2.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 6-2 | xG: 2.72-2.61
MW2 · 2026-02-28 · vs Portland Timbers · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.83-1.1
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home+1.1 pts
Won 4-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.88-1.09

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 17.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (59 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 17.1 xGA opponents generated
-1.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Colorado Rapids are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available