Season2026
COL

Colorado Rapids CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-8
CLS Score
14th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

Colorado Rapids are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 41.93 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 41.93
41
Goals Scored
xG: 40.08
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.89
2.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Inter Miami · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Inter Miami

One of those games where nothing went right. Colorado Rapids generated 1.69 xG, comfortably more than the 1.18 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Colorado Rapids. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami
45'G. Berterame scores for Inter Miami (assist: M. Silvetti)
58'Rafael Navarro scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: W. Frederick)
62'D. Yapi scores for Colorado Rapids (assist: L. Herrington)
79'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: R. de Paul)
87'Yannick Bright (Inter Miami) - Red Card
1.69
xG Created
1.18
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.69-1.18
MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs Houston Dynamo · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.44-0.5
MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs FC Dallas · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.36-1.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Minnesota United FC · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.64-1.16
MW16 · 2026-07-23 · vs San Diego · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.47-0.78
MW7 · 2026-04-12 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.6 pts
Won 6-2 home from 2.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 6-2 | xG: 2.72-2.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 fewer goals than their 40.1 xG - wasting chances
-5.8
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 34.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (189 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.1
Total CLS-8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Colorado Rapids are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available