Season2026
DC

DC United CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-3
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

DC United are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 16.59 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 16.59
15
Goals Scored
xG: 15.64
17
Goals Conceded
xGA: 14.1
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Inter Miami · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Inter Miami

One of those games where nothing went right. DC United generated 1.59 xG, comfortably more than the 0.98 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for DC United. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'R. de Paul scores for Inter Miami (assist: T. Segovia)
27'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: M. Silvetti)
75'T. Baribo scores for DC United
1.59
xG Created
0.98
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.98
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.99-0.8
MW9 · 2026-04-22 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 4-4 away despite 3.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 4-4 | xG: 3.41-1.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.61-1.93
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Orlando City SC · Home+1.5 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.07-0.83
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.12-0.54

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 fewer goals than their 15.6 xG - wasting chances
-3.3
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 14.1 xGA opponents generated
-1.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (72 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.1
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

DC United are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available