Season2026
DC

DC United CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-5
CLS Score
16th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

DC United are getting roughly what they deserve. 33 points vs 35.19 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

33
Points
Expected: 35.19
38
Goals Scored
xG: 37.37
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.27
2.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 25 · 2026-09-19 · vs Charlotte · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Charlotte

A defeat that defied the run of play. DC United created 2.85 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Charlotte generated just 0.9 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for DC United. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'A. Westwood scores for Charlotte
47'L. Bartlett scores for DC United (assist: K. Kurokawa)
71'A. Saint-Maximin scores for Charlotte (assist: A. Westwood)
2.85
xG Created
0.9
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-09-19 · vs Charlotte · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.85-0.9
MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.98
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.99-0.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-10-14 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.26-3
MW23 · 2026-09-09 · vs Columbus Crew · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0-0
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs Orlando City SC · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 fewer goals than their 37.4 xG - wasting chances
-6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (160 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.2
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 more goals than the 44.3 xGA opponents generated
-3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

DC United are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available