DC

DC United CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-6
CLS Score

DC United are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 9.11 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 9.11
4
Goals Scored
xG: 6.99
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.35
1.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Inter Miami · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Inter Miami

One of those games where nothing went right. DC United generated 1.59 xG, comfortably more than the 0.98 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for DC United. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'R. de Paul scores for Inter Miami (assist: T. Segovia)
27'L. Messi scores for Inter Miami (assist: M. Silvetti)
75'T. Baribo scores for DC United
1.59
xG Created
0.98
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-07 · vs Inter Miami · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.98
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs New England Revolution · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.99-0.8
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs FC Dallas · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 0-4 home. xG: 0.6-2.1.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.61-2.07

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.61-1.93
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Philadelphia Union · Home+1.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.12-0.54
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Philadelphia Union · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.7-1.3.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.66-1.27

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 7.0 xG - wasting chances
-6.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.8
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.5
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 9.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (46 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.6
Total CLS-6

Rank Per Signal

Where DC United ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Finishing Luck
1
30
-6.5
10
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.8
11
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.9
12
xPTS Gap
1
30
-2.5
17
Defensive Luck
1
30
+1.3
19
Discipline
1
30
+0.6
22
Schedule Strength
1
30
+2.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

DC United are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available