DEP

Deportivo La Coruna CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 3 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+13
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 2.86 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 2.86
5
Goals Scored
xG: 2.88
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.58
2.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Malaga · away
1-1
Drew away against Malaga

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Deportivo La Coruna. They got 1. That's 0.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
21'P. Aubameyang scores for Deportivo La Coruna (assist: Cruz Luismi)
34'Chupe scores for Malaga
1.12
xG Created
1.95
Opp. xG
0.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Malaga · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.95
MW1 · 2026-08-17 · vs Elche · Home+0.4 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.3-1.2.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.34-1.23
MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Valencia · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.42-1.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-30 · vs Valencia · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.42-1.4
MW1 · 2026-08-17 · vs Elche · Home+0.4 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.3-1.2.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.34-1.23
MW2 · 2026-08-24 · vs Malaga · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.95

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 2.9 xG - clinical finishing
+3.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 4.6 xGA opponents generated
+2.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (7 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|35 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Deportivo La Coruna are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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