EST

Estac Troyes CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+7
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Estac Troyes are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 2.43 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 2.43
2
Goals Scored
xG: 2.54
1
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.95
1.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Paris FC · at home
0-0
Drew at home against Paris FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Estac Troyes. They got 1. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

0.42
xG Created
1.8
Opp. xG
0.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Paris FC · Home+0.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.4-1.8.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.42-1.8
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lorient · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.12-1.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lorient · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.12-1.15
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Paris FC · Home+0.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.4-1.8.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.42-1.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 3.0 xGA opponents generated
+2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (10 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.5 fewer goals than their 2.5 xG - wasting chances
-0.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Estac Troyes are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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