EST

Estac Troyes CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-21
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Estac Troyes can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 7.37? 5 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-6.7 CLS impact). 3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 7.37
5
Goals Scored
xG: 9.18
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.53
3.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Strasbourg · at home
2-6
Lost at home against Strasbourg

One of those games where nothing went right. Estac Troyes created 2.94 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Estac Troyes. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'A. Mille scores for Estac Troyes (assist: A. Ouzenadji)
40'J. Ortega scores for Strasbourg (assist: G. Yassine)
42'D. Sousa scores for Strasbourg
57'G. Reyna scores for Strasbourg (assist: J. Ortega)
85'S. Amo-Ameyaw scores for Strasbourg (assist: D. Essugo)
88'S. Amo-Ameyaw scores for Strasbourg
90'C. Harder scores for Strasbourg (assist: D. Sousa)
90'J. Le Douaron scores for Estac Troyes (assist: K. Diawara)
2.94
xG Created
2.95
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Strasbourg · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 2-6 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-6 | xG: 2.94-2.95
MW7 · 2026-10-17 · vs Lens · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.24-1.43
MW6 · 2026-10-11 · vs Marseille · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.06-1.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Lorient · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.12-1.15
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Paris FC · Home+0.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.4-1.8.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.42-1.8
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Lille · Away+-0.5 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.4-1.6.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.38-1.65

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 9.2 xG - wasting chances
-5.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 12.5 xGA opponents generated
-4.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (42 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -21, Estac Troyes are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 11th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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