FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+19
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

FC Augsburg have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+6.6 CLS impact). 3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 3.92
11
Goals Scored
xG: 7.08
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.74
3.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Werder Bremen · away
2-3
Lost away against Werder Bremen

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for FC Augsburg. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'R. Fellhauer scores for FC Augsburg (assist: F. Rieder)
58'C. Brackelmann scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
66'M. Grull scores for Werder Bremen (assist: Chuki)
86'N. Fullkrug scores for Werder Bremen (assist: M. Grull)
90'M. Weiser scores for Werder Bremen (assist: M. Grull)
1.12
xG Created
2.78
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Werder Bremen · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 2-3 away. xG: 1.1-2.8.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.12-2.78
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.1-2.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.11-2.64
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Home+0.9 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.7-2.1.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.72-2.1

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away+2.3 pts
Won 4-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.13-2.22
MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs FC Schalke 04 · Home+0.9 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.7-2.1.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.72-2.1
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+0.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.1-2.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.11-2.64

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 7.1 xG - clinical finishing
+6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 9.7 xGA opponents generated
+3.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (28 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.1
Total CLS+19

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
3W-1D-0L
+9Neutral
#2 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Augsburg are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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