FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+10
CLS Score

FC Augsburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 33.26 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 33.26
38
Goals Scored
xG: 38.87
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 56.19
2.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 25 · 2026-03-07 · vs RB Leipzig · away
1-2
Lost away against RB Leipzig

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Augsburg created 3.24 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for FC Augsburg. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'R. Fellhauer scores for FC Augsburg (assist: F. Rieder)
76'Y. Diomande scores for RB Leipzig (assist: C. Harder)
90'Arthur Chaves scores for RB Leipzig
3.24
xG Created
2.26
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.24-2.26
MW9 · 2025-10-31 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.83-0.32
MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.93-2.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.33-3.8
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-2.46
MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+2.3 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.34-2.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (77 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+9.1
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 56.2 xGA opponents generated
+3.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 fewer goals than their 38.9 xG - wasting chances
-3.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.1
Total CLS+10

Rank Per Signal

Where FC Augsburg ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Discipline
1
18
-2.6
6
Schedule Strength
1
18
+0.1
9
Finishing Luck
1
18
-3.3
9
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-1.4
12
Defensive Luck
1
18
+3.9
13
xPTS Gap
1
18
+4.2
18
Injury Burden
1
18
+9.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
25W-4D-1L
+56Blessed
#1 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Augsburg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 4 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
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