Season

FC Augsburg CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+11

CLS Score

7th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

FC Augsburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 39.64 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 39.64

Goals Scored

xG: 46.64

Goals Conceded

xGA: 63.47

3.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 25 · 2026-03-07 · vs RB Leipzig · away

1-2

Lost away against RB Leipzig

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Augsburg created 3.24 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for FC Augsburg. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

39'R. Fellhauer scores for FC Augsburg (assist: F. Rieder)

76'Y. Diomande scores for RB Leipzig (assist: C. Harder)

90'Arthur Chaves scores for RB Leipzig

3.24

xG Created

2.26

Opp. xG

-1.8

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.24-2.26

MW9 · 2025-10-31 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.8 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.83-0.32

MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.93-2.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Away+2.6 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.33-3.8

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home+2.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-2.46

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+2.3 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.34-2.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (88 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+7.3

xPTS Gap

3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+4.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 63.5 xGA opponents generated

+4.2

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 46.6 xG - wasting chances

-3.8

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.4

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.7

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-0.9

Total CLS+11

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

FC Augsburg are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available