FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+3
Luck Index Score

FC Augsburg are getting roughly what they deserve. 32 points vs 30.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

32
Points
Expected: 30.9
34
Goals Scored
xG: 35.61
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.4
1.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-31 · vs Borussia Dortmund · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Borussia Dortmund

One of those games where nothing went right. Borussia Dortmund created almost nothing - just 0.32 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for FC Augsburg. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'R. Fellhauer scores for FC Augsburg (assist: F. Rieder)
76'Y. Diomande scores for RB Leipzig (assist: C. Harder)
90'Arthur Chaves scores for RB Leipzig
0.83
xG Created
0.32
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.24-2.26
MW9 · 2025-10-31 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.83-0.32
MW10 · 2025-11-09 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.93-2.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC St. Pauli · Home+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.13-2.46
MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+2.3 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.34-2.6
MW13 · 2025-12-06 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.28-1.63

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 35.6 xG - wasting chances
-4.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 51.4 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+2.3
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Total Luck Index+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Bayern München
Bayern München
23W-4D-1L
+62Blessed
#1 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Augsburg are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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