FC

FC Cincinnati CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-23
CLS Score

FC Cincinnati can't catch a break. 8 points when the data says they deserve closer to 12.35? 4 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 12.35
13
Goals Scored
xG: 14.1
19
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.75
4.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York Red Bulls · away
2-4
Lost away against New York Red Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Cincinnati created 2.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for FC Cincinnati. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: C. Cowell)
17'P. Bucha scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: K. Denkey)
48'E. Forsberg scores for New York Red Bulls
65'K. Smith scores for New York Red Bulls
73'K. Smith scores for FC Cincinnati
90+5'Alvas Powell (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
90'M. Sofo scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: R. Donkor)
2.8
xG Created
2
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 2.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 2.8-2
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Toronto FC · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.76-0.69
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Chicago Fire · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 4.1 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 4.12-1.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs CF Montreal · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.58-2.05
MW1 · 2026-02-21 · vs Atlanta United FC · Home+0.4 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 2.3-0.3.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.25-0.33
MW7 · 2026-04-11 · vs Toronto FC · Away+-0.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.7-0.5.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.66-0.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 10.8 xGA opponents generated
-7.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 14.1 xG - wasting chances
-3.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (44 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Total CLS-23

Rank Per Signal

Where FC Cincinnati ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Defensive Luck
1
30
-7.1
2
Discipline
1
30
-2.5
4
xPTS Gap
1
30
-9
8
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-1.9
9
Finishing Luck
1
30
-3.6
15
Injury Burden
1
30
-0.5
21
Schedule Strength
1
30
+1.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, FC Cincinnati are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available