Season2026
FC

FC Cincinnati CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

-10
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

FC Cincinnati are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 17.18 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 17.18
24
Goals Scored
xG: 21.47
27
Goals Conceded
xGA: 20.23
1.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York Red Bulls · away
2-4
Lost away against New York Red Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Cincinnati created 2.8 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for FC Cincinnati. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'J. Hall scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: C. Cowell)
17'P. Bucha scores for FC Cincinnati (assist: K. Denkey)
48'E. Forsberg scores for New York Red Bulls
65'K. Smith scores for New York Red Bulls
73'K. Smith scores for FC Cincinnati
90+5'Alvas Powell (FC Cincinnati) - Red Card
90'M. Sofo scores for New York Red Bulls (assist: R. Donkor)
2.8
xG Created
2
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 2.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 2.8-2
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Toronto FC · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.76-0.69
MW8 · 2026-04-18 · vs Chicago Fire · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 4.1 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 4.12-1.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+2.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.58-4.47
MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs CF Montreal · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.58-2.05
MW10 · 2026-04-25 · vs New York Red Bulls · Home+0.9 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 2.9-1.4.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.86-1.44

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 20.2 xGA opponents generated
-4.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (81 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.8
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 21.5 xG - clinical finishing
+1.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.5
Total CLS-10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Cincinnati are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available