Season2026
FC

FC Cincinnati CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

-9
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the mls

FC Cincinnati are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 42.97 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 42.97
62
Goals Scored
xG: 51.18
71
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.42
4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-10-18 · vs Columbus Crew · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Columbus Crew

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. FC Cincinnati generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.36 their opponent managed. Columbus Crew created almost nothing - just 0.36 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for FC Cincinnati. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Gonzalo Tapia scores for Columbus Crew (assist: Brais Méndez)
54'Taha Habroune scores for Columbus Crew (assist: Gonzalo Tapia)
1.98
xG Created
0.36
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-10-18 · vs Columbus Crew · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.98-0.36
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 2.8 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 2.8-2
MW28 · 2026-10-14 · vs New England Revolution · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.96-1.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-05-03 · vs Chicago Fire · Away+2.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.58-4.47
MW18 · 2026-08-01 · vs San Jose Earthquakes · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-2 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 0-0
MW20 · 2026-08-19 · vs New York City FC · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.19-1.67

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 23 more goals than the 48.4 xGA opponents generated
-15.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 51.2 xG - clinical finishing
+7.8
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (140 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.3
Total CLS-9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Cincinnati are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available