FC

FC Dallas CURSD Luck Score

2026 Season · View mls standings →

-1
CLS Score

FC Dallas are getting roughly what they deserve. 13 points vs 13.56 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 13.56
17
Goals Scored
xG: 12.92
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.93
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · away
0-1
Lost away against Los Angeles FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for FC Dallas. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
55'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: S. Eustaquio)
1.15
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-0.93
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.85
MW4 · 2026-03-15 · vs San Diego · Home-0.7 pts
Drew 3-3 home. xG: 2.7-2.0.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 2.71-2.04

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.36-1.74
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Toronto FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.61-0.99
MW6 · 2026-04-04 · vs DC United · Away+0.7 pts
Won 4-0 away. xG: 2.1-0.6.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.07-0.61

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 12.9 xG - clinical finishing
+9.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 8.9 xGA opponents generated
-3.7
xPTS Gap
0.6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (45 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.4
Total CLS-1

Rank Per Signal

Where FC Dallas ranks among mls teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Defensive Luck
1
30
-3.7
6
Schedule Strength
1
30
-4
8
Injury Burden
1
30
-1.3
11
xPTS Gap
1
30
-2.6
15
Shot Volume Gap
1
30
-0.4
28
Discipline
1
30
+1.7
29
Finishing Luck
1
30
+9.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|30 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Dallas are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available