Season2026
FC

FC Dallas CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 22 matches played · View mls standings →

+7
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the mls

FC Dallas are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 32.66 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 32.66
41
Goals Scored
xG: 31.25
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 27.33
1.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Vancouver Whitecaps

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Dallas generated 1.35 xG, comfortably more than the 0.67 their opponent managed. Vancouver Whitecaps generated just 0.67 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for FC Dallas. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'P. Musa scores for FC Dallas
23'S. Berhalter scores for Vancouver Whitecaps (assist: C. Sabaly)
27'O. Urhoghide scores for Vancouver Whitecaps
49'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: R. Binyamin)
64'S. Berhalter scores for Vancouver Whitecaps (assist: K. G. Cabrera Nakamura)
1.35
xG Created
0.67
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.35-0.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-0.93
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.85

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.36-1.74
MW20 · 2026-08-20 · vs Real Salt Lake · Away+1.6 pts
Won 4-3 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.54-1.45
MW15 · 2026-05-24 · vs Colorado Rapids · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.7-1.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 10 more goals than their 31.3 xG - clinical finishing
+10.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 more goals than the 27.3 xGA opponents generated
-7.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (119 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.8
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS+7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|16 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Dallas are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available