Season2026
FC

FC Dallas CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 12 matches played · View mls standings →

0
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the mls

FC Dallas are getting roughly what they deserve. 19 points vs 19.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

19
Points
Expected: 19.4
23
Goals Scored
xG: 17.82
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 13.2
0.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · away
0-1
Lost away against Los Angeles FC

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for FC Dallas. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
55'D. Martinez scores for Los Angeles FC (assist: S. Eustaquio)
1.15
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-0.93
MW8 · 2026-04-19 · vs Los Angeles Galaxy · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.85
MW9 · 2026-04-23 · vs Minnesota United FC · Home-1.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.72-1.03

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-03-22 · vs Houston Dynamo · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 1.36-1.74
MW1 · 2026-02-22 · vs Toronto FC · Home+1.2 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.61-0.99
MW11 · 2026-05-02 · vs New York Red Bulls · Away+1.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.63-0.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 17.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (61 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 13.2 xGA opponents generated
-0.7
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.4 xPTS gap)
-0.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS0

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|26 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Dallas are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available