Season2026
FC

FC Dallas CURSD Luck Score

2026 season · 30 matches played · View mls standings →

+23
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the mls

FC Dallas have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+11.4 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

51
Points
Expected: 44.47
55
Goals Scored
xG: 44.34
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38.99
6.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Vancouver Whitecaps

One of those games where nothing went right. FC Dallas generated 1.35 xG, comfortably more than the 0.67 their opponent managed. Vancouver Whitecaps generated just 0.67 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for FC Dallas. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'P. Musa scores for FC Dallas
23'S. Berhalter scores for Vancouver Whitecaps (assist: C. Sabaly)
27'O. Urhoghide scores for Vancouver Whitecaps
49'L. Farrington scores for FC Dallas (assist: R. Binyamin)
64'S. Berhalter scores for Vancouver Whitecaps (assist: K. G. Cabrera Nakamura)
1.35
xG Created
0.67
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2026-05-14 · vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.35-0.67
MW3 · 2026-03-08 · vs Los Angeles FC · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-0.93
MW26 · 2026-09-20 · vs Austin · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.78-0.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-10-15 · vs Seattle Sounders · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.04-2.01
MW27 · 2026-09-27 · vs Los Angeles FC · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0
MW23 · 2026-09-06 · vs Sporting Kansas City · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-3 home from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.12-2.84

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 more goals than their 44.3 xG - clinical finishing
+7.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (166 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 more goals than the 39.0 xGA opponents generated
-2.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.6
Total CLS+23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Dallas are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available