FC

FC Schalke 04 CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-2
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 5.04 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 5.04
4
Goals Scored
xG: 6.59
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.71
0
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-30 · vs FC Augsburg · away
0-3
Lost away against FC Augsburg

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. FC Schalke 04 created 2.1 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 0.7 points for FC Schalke 04. They got 0. That's 0.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'M. Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Kade)
62'Ron Schallenberg (FC Schalke 04) - Red Card
79'A. Kade scores for FC Augsburg (assist: F. Rieder)
90'R. Ribeiro scores for FC Augsburg (assist: Seol Young-Woo)
2.1
xG Created
3.72
Opp. xG
-0.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 2.1-3.7.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 2.1-3.72
MW5 · 2026-10-11 · vs SC Freiburg · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.3-1.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.32-1.15
MW6 · 2026-10-17 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.4-1.9.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.43-1.94

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-11 · vs Union Berlin · Away+1.3 pts
Won 3-1 away from 2.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.52-1.95
MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs Bayern München · Home+0.7 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0.21-1.94
MW4 · 2026-09-20 · vs SV Elversberg · Home+-0.3 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.0-1.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.01-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 6.6 xG - wasting chances
-7.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 11.7 xGA opponents generated
+5.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (26 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.7
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.0 xPTS gap)
-0.4
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC Schalke 04 are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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