FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-4
CLS Score

FC St. Pauli are getting roughly what they deserve. 26 points vs 29.19 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

26
Points
Expected: 29.19
26
Goals Scored
xG: 27
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.13
3.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC Augsburg · away
1-2
Lost away against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. FC St. Pauli created 2.46 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC Augsburg generated just 1.13 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for FC St. Pauli. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'D. Sinani scores for FC St. Pauli
41'M. Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
59'M. Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
2.46
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.46-1.13
MW11 · 2025-11-23 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.72-0.55
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-28 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-2.8
MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.2-1.55
MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.8-2.44

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.1
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 27.0 xG - wasting chances
-3.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (114 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 48.1 xGA opponents generated
-1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Total CLS-4

Rank Per Signal

Where FC St. Pauli ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-5.1
8
xPTS Gap
1
18
-4.6
9
Finishing Luck
1
18
-3.3
9
Defensive Luck
1
18
-1
11
Discipline
1
18
+0.7
11
Injury Burden
1
18
+2.9
15
Schedule Strength
1
18
+6.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC St. Pauli are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 4 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
04-25
A
1. FC Heidenheim
Bet
05-03
H
FSV Mainz 05
Bet
05-09
A
RB Leipzig
Bet
05-16
H
VfL Wolfsburg
Bet