FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+3
Luck Index Score

FC St. Pauli are getting roughly what they deserve. 25 points vs 27.28 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

25
Points
Expected: 27.28
25
Goals Scored
xG: 24.5
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.96
2.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC Augsburg · away
1-2
Lost away against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. FC St. Pauli created 2.46 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. FC Augsburg generated just 1.13 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for FC St. Pauli. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'D. Sinani scores for FC St. Pauli
41'M. Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
59'M. Gregoritsch scores for FC Augsburg (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
2.46
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs FC Augsburg · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.46-1.13
MW11 · 2025-11-23 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.72-0.55
MW5 · 2025-09-27 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.69

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-28 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-2.8
MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs Werder Bremen · Home+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.2-1.55
MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.8-2.44

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (101 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.5 fewer goals than their 24.5 xG - wasting chances
-2.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 43.0 xGA opponents generated
0
Total Luck Index+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
7W-10D-11L
+8Neutral
#12 in league
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
7W-7D-14L
-44Cursed
#14 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FC St. Pauli are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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