Werder Bremen Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-44

Luck Index Score

Werder Bremen are the definition of "we deserved more." With 28 points from 35.58 expected, they've been robbed this season. 7 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 4 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 35.58

Goals Scored

xG: 35.24

Goals Conceded

xGA: 42.58

7.6

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-22 · vs FC St. Pauli · away

1-2

Lost away against FC St. Pauli

A defeat that defied the run of play. Werder Bremen generated 1.55 xG, comfortably more than the 0.2 their opponent managed. FC St. Pauli created almost nothing - just 0.2 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Werder Bremen. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

55'H. Wahl scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: D. Sinani)

62'J. Milosevic scores for Werder Bremen

70'J. Fujita scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: M. Saliakas)

1.55

xG Created

0.2

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.55-0.2

MW19 · 2026-01-27 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home-2.2 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.61

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs SC Freiburg · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.97-0.46

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-21 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.3 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-1.06

MW8 · 2025-10-24 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.4 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-0.58

MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away+1.2 pts

Won 4-0 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.

Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.09-1.48

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (189 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-14.9

xPTS Gap

8 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-12.7

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 35.2 xG - wasting chances

-8.7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+6.1

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 more goals than the 42.6 xGA opponents generated

-4.6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3.7

Total Luck Index-44

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Werder Bremen are deeply cursed at -44. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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