Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+3
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Werder Bremen are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 4.64 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 4.64
8
Goals Scored
xG: 5.39
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.64
2.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-30 · vs SC Freiburg · away
1-4
Lost away against SC Freiburg

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.3 points for Werder Bremen. They got 0. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'Y. Suzuki scores for SC Freiburg (assist: J. Beste)
45'I. Matanovic scores for SC Freiburg (assist: M. Ginter)
48'Y. Suzuki scores for SC Freiburg
55'Y. Suzuki scores for SC Freiburg (assist: I. Matanovic)
76'D. Stalmach scores for Werder Bremen (assist: M. Grull)
0.54
xG Created
2.37
Opp. xG
-0.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-30 · vs SC Freiburg · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 1-4 away. xG: 0.5-2.4.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 0.54-2.37
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-1.6.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.65
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-2 home. xG: 2.8-1.1.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.78-1.12

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs RB Leipzig · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.95-1.5
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+0.7 pts
Won 3-2 home. xG: 2.8-1.1.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.78-1.12
MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs 1. FC Köln · Away+-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.1-1.6.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.12-1.65

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (56 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 5.4 xG - clinical finishing
+3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 6.6 xGA opponents generated
-0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
1W-0D-3L
-4Neutral
#16 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Werder Bremen are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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