Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-35
CLS Score

Werder Bremen can't catch a break. 31 points when the data says they deserve closer to 38.11? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

31
Points
Expected: 38.11
35
Goals Scored
xG: 37.97
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.48
7.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-22 · vs FC St. Pauli · away
1-2
Lost away against FC St. Pauli

A defeat that defied the run of play. Werder Bremen generated 1.55 xG, comfortably more than the 0.2 their opponent managed. FC St. Pauli created almost nothing - just 0.2 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Werder Bremen. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
55'H. Wahl scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: D. Sinani)
62'J. Milosevic scores for Werder Bremen
70'J. Fujita scores for FC St. Pauli (assist: M. Saliakas)
1.55
xG Created
0.2
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs FC St. Pauli · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.55-0.2
MW19 · 2026-01-27 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.61
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs SC Freiburg · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.97-0.46

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-21 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-1.06
MW8 · 2025-10-24 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.95-0.58
MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away+1.2 pts
Won 4-0 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 2.09-1.48

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (221 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14.2
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-10.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 38.0 xG - wasting chances
-5.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated
-4.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.3
Total CLS-35

Rank Per Signal

Where Werder Bremen ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Discipline
1
18
-3.3
2
Injury Burden
1
18
-14.2
3
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-4.4
4
xPTS Gap
1
18
-10.4
4
Finishing Luck
1
18
-5.7
6
Defensive Luck
1
18
-4.4
17
Schedule Strength
1
18
+7.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -35, Werder Bremen are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 4 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run. A difficult run could slow the bounce-back.

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