Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+9
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Hamburger SV are getting roughly what they deserve. 38 points vs 37.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 37.4
40
Goals Scored
xG: 41.62
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 61.4
0.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-25 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · at home
0-1
Lost at home against VfL Wolfsburg

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Hamburger SV created 2.77 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. VfL Wolfsburg created almost nothing - just 0.37 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Hamburger SV. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'A. Daghim scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: C. Eriksen)
2.77
xG Created
0.37
Opp. xG
-2.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-2.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.77-0.37
MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.53-1.06
MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.38-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-20 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.35-2.98
MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.82-2.2
MW32 · 2026-05-02 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.62-0.65

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 61.4 xGA opponents generated
+9.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 41.6 xG - wasting chances
-3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.5
xPTS Gap
0.6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (144 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.6
Total CLS+9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hamburger SV are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available