Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-4
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Hamburger SV are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 3.1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 3.1
2
Goals Scored
xG: 3.65
13
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.14
0.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Borussia Dortmund · away
0-2
Lost away against Borussia Dortmund

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Hamburger SV. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'S. Guirassy scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: K. Karetsas)
45'G. Konstantelias scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: M. Beier)
77'Samuele Inacio (Borussia Dortmund) - Red Card
0.91
xG Created
1.53
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Borussia Dortmund · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.9-1.5.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.91-1.53
MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-5 away. xG: 1.1-2.4.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 1.1-2.43
MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 home. xG: 0.2-2.8.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.19-2.77

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.45-1.41
MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 home. xG: 0.2-2.8.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.19-2.77
MW3 · 2026-09-13 · vs RB Leipzig · Away+-0.6 pts
Lost 0-5 away. xG: 1.1-2.4.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 1.1-2.43

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 3.6 xG - wasting chances
-3.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 8.1 xGA opponents generated
-3.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (21 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.1 xPTS gap)
-0.3
Total CLS-4

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
2W-1D-1L
+3Neutral
#6 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hamburger SV are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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