Hamburger SV Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

Luck Index Score

Hamburger SV are getting roughly what they deserve. 31 points vs 30.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 30.9

Goals Scored

xG: 34.58

Goals Conceded

xGA: 50.4

0.1

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-25 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · at home

0-1

Lost at home against VfL Wolfsburg

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Hamburger SV created 2.77 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. VfL Wolfsburg created almost nothing - just 0.37 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Hamburger SV. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

15'A. Daghim scores for VfL Wolfsburg (assist: C. Eriksen)

2.77

xG Created

0.37

Opp. xG

-2.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Home-2.7 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.77-0.37

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.53-1.06

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-4 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.38-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-20 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 home from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.35-2.98

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.82-2.2

MW21 · 2026-02-14 · vs Union Berlin · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-2 home from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.06-2.13

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck

Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 50.4 xGA opponents generated

+11.2

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 34.6 xG - wasting chances

-6

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+5.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.7

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.1

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (109 player-games missed) - squad depth available

xPTS Gap

Almost exactly on expected points (0.1 xPTS gap)

+0.3

Total Luck Index+8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Hamburger SV are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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