FRO

Frosinone CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+24
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Frosinone have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+7.3 CLS impact). 6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 7.06
13
Goals Scored
xG: 10.62
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 15.52
5.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Genoa · away
1-1
Drew away against Genoa

One of those games where nothing went right. Frosinone generated 1.93 xG, comfortably more than the 1.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Frosinone. They got 1. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'G. Kvernadze scores for Frosinone (assist: R. Schmid)
45+1'Lorenzo Colombo scores for Genoa
50'J. Vasquez scores for Genoa (assist: D. Sow)
86'Johan Vásquez (Genoa) - Red Card
1.93
xG Created
1.88
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Genoa · Away-0.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.9-1.9.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.93-1.88
MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Napoli · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 1.0-3.1.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.01-3.12
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Juventus · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.4-2.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.41-2.18

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.11-2.13
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Venezia · Home+1.8 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.9-2.17
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Como · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.18-2.12

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 10.6 xG - clinical finishing
+5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 15.5 xGA opponents generated
+4.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (6 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.3
Total CLS+24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Frosinone are riding their luck at +24. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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