FRO

Frosinone CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+12
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Frosinone are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 1.1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 1.1
3
Goals Scored
xG: 1.52
1
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.31
1.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Juventus · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Juventus

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.3 points for Frosinone. They got 0. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Bremer scores for Juventus (assist: F. Conceicao)
0.41
xG Created
2.18
Opp. xG
-0.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Juventus · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.4-2.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.41-2.18
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.11-2.13

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Fiorentina · Away+2.2 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.11-2.13
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Juventus · Home+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.4-2.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.41-2.18

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 1.5 xG - clinical finishing
+3.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (2 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 4.3 xGA opponents generated
+2.5
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Frosinone are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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